OIL Anyone?

Yep, the natural gas companies are getting bent over right now. With the glut of oil supply, alternative sources of fuel aren't looking very good in the short term. I'd expect a lot of companies will go under. I'd stay far away from anything related to natgas. I was a huge believer in it when oil was ~$100/barrel, but the political aspect has created a poor outlook for natgas in the short term


It's likely that OPEC, Iran, Russia will come to an agreement on supply when they all start seeing a dent in their financials. Until then, I'm waiting for a bottom. Looks like it's not there yet and it's dragging the big indices down with it. The upside is looking mighty fine though!

I'll probably go $USO when the time is right.

 

2016 here, oil just hit $27

 

I don't try to be a 'picker'. I'm not that smart, and apparently neither are most investment managers.

Low cost (Vanguard Admiral class is one) in a mixed bad mutual fund (Total Stock Market) has served us quite well.

When hiccups happen like '08 and right now, I always encouraged the 'sky is falling' crowd to buy more. The old adage of buy low, sell high? When do you think it will be lower again?

 

I usually make good picks, my problem is that I don't hold out long enough during a swing. I bought Netflix in 2011. There was a big slide because, and get this, people were pissed off that Netflix was not going to continue MAILING DVDs and were instead switching to streaming. I did not take into account Moore's law at the time. I'm only happy that I didn't have much capital in it to begin with.

One other thing I learned, NEVER EVER buy OTC stocks. Ever.

I also looked at Bank of Ireland when it defaulted in 2011. Their stock was about $2.50. Now it's around $13 but was de-listed from Nasdaq.

Basically look for the big losers. Netflix was more risky than a bank or oil. You want to look for "too big to fail".

 

Wise words Clearwater Bill, I sold almost all my stocks and switched to Vanguard about a year ago. I still hold a generic pharma called Lannett (LCI) They hold zero debt and are growing very fast.

 

I've got a bunch of stock in a few oil service companies but I'm to the point where I'll just hold on long term and hopefully 20+ years down the line it will payoff.

 

oil will continue to drop. Just wait till Iran chimes in.

 

Right we get that, but the million dollar question is at what point do Saudi say enough is enough and limit what they pump. We're almost to the point of giving it away.

 

You said it man!

 

They wont stop anytime soon. It will easily be 6+ months of 30/barrel before they think of slowing production down. They will wait until african nations back out, south america backs out. Basically until them and the US are the last still producing.

 

the saudis will stop when we stop. then they will ram it to us again.

 

Key point is that at the current price they are still making s profit unlike producers in the US and Canada . At least the US is still a net importer unlike us .

 

Recent articles I've read are speculating a bounce back in 2017. So if you get in now, buckle up because it's gonna be a bumpy ride to the top. Better put it in 4-lo.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-to-oil-rout-as-Saudi-Arabia-plays-tough.html

 

https://www.google.com/finance?q=uso&ei=n0SNVuO7NdKYjAGyu5ow

USO down almost 8% today

 

Oil up almost 10% in two days on pure speculation that a Feb OPEC meeting will end in supply cut agreement.

 

So many people are just waiting for the drop to end and the recovery to begin that they're jumping in on pure spec. Still long on vanguard energy fund.

 

Looks like oil has made a decent comeback lately. But there's still a lot of talk about a "surplus". Not really ready to jump in yet but getting close. Been watching CHK for a while and $5 seems like the optimal price to jump in. Lost that opportunity a couple weeks ago

 

Wow, so dead.

Bullish AF on oil for the next year or two.