Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Wow thank you. Airlines and oil companies seem like good buys right now, especially with Trump just announcing temporarily blocking foreign oil

 

Trump also just moved some Navy ships to the coast of Venezuela yesterday. Definitely planning on over throwing Maduro and sourcing oil from there

 

Agreed. Markets will continue to be irrational, especially when fear and emotions are running high. My advice: it's impossible to time the market, don't try to predict 'the bottom', no one is ever right. Not even Warren Buffet. Two more investing cliches that are relevant today:
1) The stock market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
2) Time in market is better than timing the market. People have forgone more money by waiting on the sidelines for the arrival of 'the bottom' than have forgone money incorrectly timing 'the bottom'.

I'm not terribly optimistic on either of these investments. I would not base an investment thesis on uncertain plans from the government. Not only are they subject to change at any moment, but even if true it's just a short term initiative. Ultimately, i'm not sure I believe big oil will be as large of a player as they used to be in the global economy in 20-30 years unless they start diversifying a lot more than they already are. Given how many developed countries are rapidly shifting away from reliance on oil, it's just not a trend I see big oil or airlines benefiting from. Not saying their stocks won't perform well over the next few years, I just think the opportunity cost is high. There's so many other areas i'd rather put my money in.

 

Yup - note the setting up with the drug trafficking discussion and the indictment against Maduro.

With the US recognizing Guaido as being legitimate president....

 

There is definitely an historical pattern where we recover our economy through conflict.

 

Re-election is coming up. Wouldn't surprise me if our country enters a conflict to ensure re-election. Wouldn't be the first time

 

I’d say each day is it’s own individual overreaction, and correction from the previous days overreaction and correction. Everyone knew the unemployment claims would be high, so doesn’t really matter today with the focus on oil. But tomorrow it might be realizing the oil market isn’t settled and a lot of people are out of work, so things might drop. Who knows. I’m only looking at the long term and some dividends, so I don’t care too much what it’s doing day to day other than good deals

 

Oil will always come back but to a lower point. Oil wants to remain cheap enough that they don’t try to plan around it. Remember how hybrid and electric became a huge thing back when gas was 4 bucks a gallon but is kind of dwindled out? That’s because oil became cheap again so dev into hybrid and electric was slowed or stopped at a lot of places. Not worth it to dev hybrids when they’re 10k more expensive and over the life of the vehicle it saves only 5k.

oil companies know that if they price high again like that, engineering will develop around expensive oil and make them obsolete. However, oil sands and shale and other sources were cutting in. So, price war. Price out and shut down all those other operations, wait until they’re done for good, and then re up the price. That way there’s no alternative for a while and then can make a damn good profit.

Yeah I’d buy oil now too. It’ll be back up but it won’t be way back up to 2007 gas prices.

 

Are we going red today come on I'm tired of this

 

it's trying...

 

So not directly related to investments. If this virus keeps infecting more and more people, businesses and areas will continue to close. How long do you think this could continue with no relief from this virus.

Asked simpler, how long do you think things will continue to shut down before we just say screw it and go back to normal lifestyles even with the risk.

 

2 months. After that, the damage by the shutdown becomes worse than the damage by the virus.

 

Two months from when? I know nobody here can see the future, but I have been working from home for 2 weeks, my city has been shutdown-ish for a week. June your think?

 

I am just making a wild guess, but 2 months total. One more month max, then we'll have to just see what happens when we all get the virus. Let the at-risk folks continue to quarantine, but we can't keep this going for too long without a Greater Depression happening.

 

This can last a few months at the longest before the dominoes start collapsing everything. If people lose their jobs they can't pay rent. What happens to the landlords? The banks the landlords pay their mortgage to? Not to mention all of the businesses that will simply have to close. It won't be just small businesses after a few months, it will be most businesses. You can't interrupt the entire cash flow of a system that relies on it without the system collapsing quickly.

 

This was all Bernie's plan...it's a perfect transition to socialism!

#dontbanme

 

@honda50r
I dont care, but not sure if the hashtag will save you haha.

 

Hahaha

My (very unpopular) opinion from the beginning of this hasn't changed: quarantine the at-risk people, let everyone continue their daily lives. We can all get the virus, but please government, let us have that choice!

 

Suspend all payments due and payments owed! Inwas reading an article somewhere where people were saying even if you weren't affected, stand in solidarity and dont pay rent this month. Let's destroy the landlords!

 

A lot of people seem to think that's a good idea, and that landlords are just "rich guys." I am sure a good amount of landlords are people just like us, and that's their investment. It's insane to think it's ok to break that contract.