Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Ordered a couple high capacity magazines just now too. Expedited shipping

 

buddy works for Cabelas. In the FFL background check group.

His store’s sold more firearms in the past month than they’ve sold in prior two years.

Looters gonna have a surprise

 

Props to GA specifically listing gun and ammo vendors as Essential Services. Lol.

 

For small Skiff’s and self launch-able craft value should be good. I could own my 13 whaler for 10 more years and make $$$ on it assuming the motor doesn’t die.

With larger boats the standard is 10% of the boat value per year in maintenance. My 26 foot racing sailboat (J80) has been closer to 20% per year and I do all my own work. Luckily I own a mooring of which I do not include in operating costs. If I sold the boat I would sell it for more than I purchased it for. So if I don’t count burning 20% of the value every year I’m doing well. Sail inventory every couple years is a absolute bitch, I wish I liked fishing.

 

Morgan Stanley just said "The worst is behind us". Sorry, I just can't get that optimistic.

I'm an optimistic skeptic.

 

I got to stop reading the financial news. Every one of those fuckers thinks they are an authority on this fucking virus.

Fuck jamie dimon. Stick to making us money and less about how unprepared the US is to deal with this. No one is prepared!

Sorry. Mini rant over.

 

Nailed it.

And screw MarketWatch and their worldview.

 

Stock futures this morning are pointing to a 750+ gains. I put "some" of my spare money into my ameritrade account when this started. I already bought 33% a few weeks ago when it was down. I will go another 33% if it goes lower.
Here's my problems... I am making a mistake by applying logic to a crooked and rigged system.
1. Oil is crushed and demand is in the gutter
2. 2 trillion of Monopoly money was just dropped in the form of cash and prizes
3. Corporate and personal debt was through the roof before this all happened
4. Stock buy backs have over inflated the values of the stocks
5. The virus has sent unemployment to the moon.
6. MANY MANY MANY more problems...
Now, our society runs on consumerism AKA buying shit you don't need with money you don't have. In 2 WEEKS, America is screaming broke and can't pay any bills while they hoard toilet paper. Our free school lunch program is delivering meals to kids right now. People who are not working, "furloughed" "laid off" or what ever fancy word you want to use... Don't have health insurance.
To "re-start" our economy, we need to sell things "create a demand" and then hire people to meet these demands. Needless to say this might take a while.

 

It might not take as long as you think. Yes those same problems are there. And the longer we are at a standstill the worse it will be. But most people and employers are ready to go......ie the furlough is temporary. The market as stupid and ugly and whacking whacked as it has been all these weeks is forward looking.

 

If you believe most of the unemployment claims are temporary, and people will return to their consumerism quickly, then don’t worry about it taking long for things to improve. Everything that shutdown is temporary, the jobs will return. And it’s high time oil gets replaced and is no longer a driver of the economy

 

I think as far as infections are concerned for this flu season we're peaking or near the peak now. In New York. Rural south TBD. Stick around after the break

Financially the worst is yet to come. April forecasts and Q2 YOY will make this a bloodbath going into Q3.

for (1), demand is down and Rus/SA price war. NOW is a time to buy oil (and have fun driving the tacoma )

Most of the claims are temporary, but there's a lot that are not. This will definitely be a slowdown and once we're back to full steam ahead, we will see a higher unemployment than Jan/Feb. But not the solid 33% they're talking currently.

Problem with oil is that every time it is approaching being replaced, it has a dive. It becomes cheap again, which makes the alternatives more expensive, and not financially worth it to invest in development. For example, hybrids. Hybrid vehicles had a spike up around 2006-08. Then gas prices went down, and through 2019 Hybrid tech had a shrug of a development in 10 years. But, we also had Shale and Oil Sands, etc. Now, oil is going back down to push our shale and oil sands and other alternatives. Makes hybrids worthless again as they are starting to get a drive in development. Once the projects in the alternative sources get shut driven out of business and auto makers scrap their plans for the next generation hybrids, Rus/SA will magically make an agreement and oil will go back up. The cycle continues. However, OPEC knows how much they can charge for oil, though, where it will keep hybrid/electric too expensive to make sense. Tesla is doing good because Elon is seen as a demigod by his followers and he's pumping his own money into it. Otherwise you don't see Electric taking off - because oil is cheap enough from the producers to make hybrid and electric dev not worth it.

Got a little sidetracked there, but yeah, oil will come back up, that's almost a guarantee. That's a safe bet to invest in right about now.

 

If the market does go up again today or this week maybe it’s just another dead cat bounce. I’m not a pessimist and I’m bullish for sure, but we might not be through the storm just yet.

 

There will be more bad news. And we all will die. But we all ain't gonna die at the same time this week.


Probably will spread out over a few weeks.

 

Thanks to social distancing

 

I am holding back because I buy and own rentals and land. All of America's "HELOC's" that bought swimming pools, vacations, and paid off chargecards are still due. People never learn. 2008 was only 12 years ago, but everyone got bailed out, so the party continues. It will take 18-24 months for the housing to burn down and become available. Credit will be tighter and "other people's money" won't be inflating the prices. I will buy more houses. I pulled out of the markets before the drop. Now I will wait.
If this doesn't happen I will do it the old fashioned way with my trusty hammer and tools... I will just build another duplex from scratch, on land that I already own outright, left over from poor decisions of other's who were "making money with other people's money." The power of living a simple life, with zero debt, and PATIENCE, is amazing. Bad news is that the 2015 taco is turning six this year. I like to buy a new one every 10-12 years, so I guess I better start saving up for one of those LOL. My properties, tools, and skills make the money, I just reap the rewards.
I have never paid a penny's interest on a charge card, carried an auto loan past 36 months, carried a house payment past 10 years, bought a cup of Starbuck's coffee, or bought any fancy boots with fur. My friends make fun of me, have nicknames for me, and they are all pissing their pants right now. Me? I guess I'll mow the lawns, and try to decide what I want to thaw out for dinner with my family. I've been social distancing for years... LONG before it was mandated or cool. I'm 41, and was trained by 70,80, and 90 year old stubborn old men that "didn't fit in either. I miss most of them as they are now gone, but their wisdom has taken me places that I never dreamed possible. Stay safe, stay smart, and never make a decision based on fear. The lessons learned will become your fortune later if you actually mend your ways.

 

Good thing I bought RUTH. Told you guys

 

I knew we were two peas from a pod from your prior post. Same age, same upbringing, same training, yadda yadda

 

So...you came into this thread just to gloat?

 

Or impart some wisdom?

TLDR: Live debt free=less stress when the shit hits the fan

 

I don't disagree with any of those principles. But it is preaching to the choir and thus pompous