Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Sounds like everyone is sold on a long and slow turnaround? Even with the world starting to open back up in May?

 

I still think it will be pretty quick.

 

Me too. I don’t expect a lightning recovery, but I think in 2-3 years it will be hard to tell this ever happened. Hopefully.

 

I think more like a few months. It was all so sudden (the lost jobs), I think we will see record hiring (almost as quick, but probably a little slower).

 

1. I hope we don’t forget this happened. As far as current market valuation sure. The economy will hopefully be recovered in two years. But we shouldn’t forget this happened or act like it didn’t.
   
2. I’m somewhere in the middle. I don’t think we’ll see a v recovery. But there’s a lot of furlough and temporary layoffs at the moment. When we get the go ahead a lot of people will go back right away. But there are also a lot of people who permanently list their (current) job. And companies won’t be hiring frantically right away like they were Q4 2019. There’s going to be a lot of second guessing needs for positions for a while and a lot of places will run very lean for a while.
   
3. airline and tourism will be a slower recovery than manufacturing and services.

I’m guessing it won’t be v shaped, won’t be long drawn out four year thing, but will be somewhere inbetween. We’ve lot a lot of jobs and job openings so even though there will be a flood back in when we reopen, it won’t be to the same levels of Jan/Feb right away and will take some time to come back. But that’s if we start to reopen soon like the first weeks of May. If this shut down continues on then it’ll get a lot worse through May and recovery will be longer and harder.

 

This is where I disagree. I think as things open up reality will set in and small to medium sized companies will start going bankrupt and you will see a cascade affect. You also have the entire airline industry and all their industrial suppliers propped up until 9/30, look for a jobs bloodbath and massive airline scaling down on 10/1 which will cascade to those other companies.

Also as soon as cases flare up again the Karens will start crying and they will shut it down again in the fall and winter. You cant run a business based on that level of uncertainty and with zero plans whatsoever over coming out of the governor's offices on targets to reopening it's not a very rosey picture

 

All of my predictions are pretty much wild guesses. I have enough humility know that I have no idea what will actually happen. Just a little disclaimer.

 

Oh for sure, same here.

 

I don’t I’m convinced I’m right.

 

You should be an analyst, they always know they’re right.

 

I think it's a combination of both. The airlines and other travel dependent industries will still take a hit, as no one will be in a big hurry to venture outside their environment. Vacations will be local and we have one planned at the end of May. Infrastructure and technology will rebound and sports will continue with limited on location viewers, but televised sporting events will be abundant. People want to be entertained, but Hollywood will still take a hit. They can't scream "stay at home", while out making movies...

 

You're a legend in your own mind.

 

Yea. Well hopefully some pressure starts to mount to get some stuff up and running again. In my group of friends who were in the "shut it all down until we have a vaccine" camp are starting to realize evrey business is interconnected and we need to get on a path to get things up and running again, so maybe there is some logical light ahead at the end of this illogical tunnel.

Good news is the government finally labeled workplace safety people as essential, only how many months into this pandemic LOL!! Do I get a windbreaker now?

 

Gotcha and agree to a point. The writing is on the wall for a bleak couple years so why not park funds in CD's before rates drop (just for a year or so, then reassess) ? Seems better than what sounds like another 20% drop coming in the near future with no quick bounce back ...so say the bears.

Food shortage coming also because of the disruption, could get ugly.

 

That could work, I don’t know anything about CDs. I’m doing something similar, buying quality companies like KO that will continue to pay a 3% dividend, don’t care about share price.

 

Sad, but true.

I've been stocking my freezer with various meats. Pork and beef will take the first hit IMO.

 

My boss was in that camp. I got him to consider letting us go back to work on May 4th, I'm going to talk with him today to finalize the details. My trade is considered "essential" so I never should have had time off in the first place but I understand why he did it. We've agreed to disagree and form a plan that puts my crew back to work.

How long this goes on and how fast it recovers is are very hard thing to figure out. It happened so fast that it might return to semi normal just as quick, My hope is that is the case. We'll loose some businesses for sure but those that go under weren't well run and didn't have strong finances. Those that make it will get the market share from the defunct business and strengthen because of it.

Or shit could hit the fan. Anybody got a coin?

 

I googled what were the best investments during the great depression . A lot of the articles were relating the GD to the 2008 -2009 crisis. Anyway very interesting reading as far as gold /cash / property and stocks, and when to own each depending on what actually happens as far as deflation/ hyperinflation / stagnation and the likes . The biggest difference so far today is the fed backstopping nearly everything that comes up with $ trillions , but this can only work until it doesn't . Here's to hoping thing pick up before it doesn't

 

I also buy ammo...

 

Considering i have 0% faith in our central planners I'm going with SHTF. I disagree with only mismanaged businesses are going under, what business has 2+ months of cash on hand? Dont say apple because they dont count, I'm talking normal businesses.