Death Valley Off-Road Adventures

Not statistically significant.

 

True, but I'm presuming that small variation is what Zack was getting at.

 

The variation can be anything. Time of the forecast (minutes might matter), measurement stations. Meteorologist. It's as much art as it is science. But hey, what a great gig! You can fuck up 50% of the time and still not get fired

 

Which should lead people in that field to question the models because computing power was more then capable. lol

 

Do you realize how many variables there are?

 

I'm sure there's tons. It's the same reason that nobody has been able to model the stock market. Too many variables with not enough known real input to be accurate. I didn't say it would be an easy task. I just said the models need to improve. lol

 

I don’t see no hypothesis test proving this

Answer goes deeper than this. Theoretically there is always room for improvement, but it reaches a point where the resources being used are not worth the minimal improvement.

Things like weather and stock market can be so volatile that no matter how good a model, human and nature factors can trump the accuracy of said model. It’s just how nature works.

Not to downplay modeling, but it can only be so good.

 

For sure there's a cost/benefit thing as far as the weather. The market is a different beast altogether. The person that cracks that egg will be a billionaire. Traditionally technical analysis has been used and even the best current models still get it wrong way to much for it to be profitable. MIT is using public sentiment in it's current model. By pulling from live social feeds they can "predict" moves. It's still not done but I bet that models accuracy rate will be much higher.

 

I personally don’t believe the egg will be cracked on the markets. Too much volatility, insider trading, yada yada yada.

 

Do you believe the weather nut will be cracked?

The problem with the markets is once someone figures it out, someone else will figure out how to manipulate it.

 

We are way off topic, but since we are here it is worth noting comparing weather and market modeling is worse than apples and oranges. The weather doesn’t care whether you have a good model of it or not, and any attempt to change behavior or make a profit off a good prediction of the weather (think insurance and futures) will do nothing to change the weather. In a market any action you take to make a profit affects the market. That’s in fact a fundamental feature of markets and why we even have them.

If you find the forecast discussion out of some of the NWS offices to be a bit impenetrable and have a passing interest in meteorology take a bit to check out a good guide from the NWS which includes a description of upper air charts and the associated terms that come up in the discussions:

https://www.weather.gov/jetstream/

 

Look at Monday...75% chance of snow, 24% chance of snow, 40% chance of snow.

I'm not worried about a few degrees difference in the forecast but I monitor the hourly snowfall forecast for skiing and Wunderground is way better at predicting where and when the snow is going to fall.

 

it might snow...but i will not know unless i'm standing in the gravel..ignoring the monitors

 

@DVexile stated it well in the post after yours.

But probably not. To put a nerdy spin on this, it’s kinda like a mathematical model with random noise. You can approximate the output of said model, but the random noise factor makes it difficult to get a consistent approximation.

Now I am resisting the urge to throw out an example using Math distributions lol

 

I'm not sure I would consider it random noise. There are so many things that affect predictions. Today's weather and wildfires are two examples. And for the most part, short term predictions are usually pretty accurate. Over time, they are less reliable because small changes today become larger over time.

Predicting the weather is pretty complex. Just look at the weather in Death Valley over the last few months

Good discussion though.

 

Farmers Almanac anyone? Might make November wheeling at 9,000ft more exciting if that's all we used. With the abundance of weather models and how easy it is to access them, I check forecasts almost daily... Donner Party should have been using NOAA

 

nostalgic review november 13.14.15.16. 2020 looks like weather was good.



must have eaten same menu at each stop.usual

 

Echo and Hole in the Wall Open

Well, and Daylight Pass/Beatty Cutoff too. But I’m most curious about what the designated campsites on Echo/Hole are like.

Towne Pass suppose to open in a week or two.

 

I’m camped in DVNP right now and the weather is PERFECT. The same could not be said for last night, though my motel room in Beatty was actually very nice.

 

Nice. Planning to do Echo and check out Hole In The Wall (and Dante's View) when I head out there in a few months.