I hope when Toyota redesigns the Tacoma

The first generation was in production for 9 years and 7 months, damn near 10 years from January 1995 to August 2004. 2nd generation was in production for 11 years, not 10, from August 2004 (line off ceremony was September 14, 2004) to August 2015. I authored much of the publicly available information on all Tacoma generations, many years ago in undergrad and while doing my MBA.

Toyota began studying the 2nd generation truck in 1999, getting serious in 2000, and identifying styling in 2001. Everything was locked down in 2002, before the first integrated test units were built in 2003. They went on sale on October 18, 2004 and the 3rd generation took over on September 10, 2015.

I appreciate how you estimated the development timetable for the 2nd generation, but it sure as hell was in dealers in 2004 (not 2005), after the X-Runner got revealed at Chicago in February 2004. I remember, because I loved the hell out of the X-Runner as a teenage and eventually took interest in the rest of 2005 lineup when they got revealed that summer (2004).

I have explained so many times, product planning circumstances differ between generations and do NOT dictate future product plans. The earliest form of message boards in the early-mid 90s, had 1 sphere of discussion on the expected redesigned Toyota pickup and the amount of speculation was no different than today. In 1993, the first spy shot of the 1995 Tacoma appeared and it upended expectations, of a new 1994 Pickup due to the timing.

The new truck was expected in the fall of 1994, as a 1995 model instead. Why did they think something new for 1994? Well, because the 2nd gen Pickup launched in 1983 for 1984MY and 3rd gen pickup did in October 1988 for 1989MY. It saw a refresh for MY 1992, in late 1991, so they expected a new truck 2 years later.

When the 1995 Pickup was announced unchanged in the summer of 1994, it became clear this new truck wouldn't arrive during 1994 at all, despite all camouflaged and testing around. In February 1995, it was revealed in Chicago, after Job 1 began in secret at NUMMI in January 1995. It went on sale in early March 1995 as a 1995.5. Shortly after, no more '95 Pickups were available outside of buildout.

Basically a 6.5 year run from October 1988 to 1995.

Once upon a time in the late 90s, Toyota was expected to redesign the Tacoma in 2001-02. This was after a refresh appeared for both 2WD in October 1996 ('97MY) and 4WD in July 1997 (MY 1998).

Media had egg on their face, when circa 1999, they shifted to expectations of a new truck in the fall of 2000. That was none other than the facelifted 2001 MY truck, so they shifted predictions to MY 2004. They were wrong again, as the earliest evidence of the next generation Tacoma appeared in early 2003 on mules for winter testing using a Tundra bed and 4G 4Runner fascia and front doors, plus shortened frame.

Toyota in 1996 were planning to redesign the Tacoma at the turn of the millennium for the 2002 MY, but with so many BOF SUV and unibody crossover programs on their plate through 2003, plus Lexus brand, they opted out of it in 1997 and tried to closer align the Tacoma's timetable with the newly redesigned Hilux, due in August 1997. The Hilux would have a 7-year run through 2004, as would the Tacoma now as well, although it had been on the market 2.5 years longer than the new Hilux. In parallel, the Tacoma refresh indeed debuted in July 1997 for 1998MY, with a fascia similar to the 1997 Tacoma 2WD with composite headlamps (formerly sealed beams) and now had an updated dashboard with a passenger side airbag as standard.

The latter was to counteract, the 1996 Ranger/Mazda BT-50 (optional dual SRS) and 1997 Dodge Dakota (standard dual SRS), who championed safety as a symbol of modernity in truck segment, with IIHS and NHTSA making a big deal about airbags. With that taken care of, Toyota in 1997 began developing a heavily updated Tacoma for the 2001 Model Year, finalizing styling and most changes by September 1998. It later went on sale in September 2000 as a 2001 model, remaining identical to the changes proposed in 1997-1998.

As that was being engineered to completion in 1999, Toyota was hard at work on the 120-Series Prado, Lexus GX 470, and designing the 2003 4Runner. They split off planning for the 2003 4Runner and began discussing the 2nd generation Tacoma and planning the next Hilux as well (due 2004), having just approved styling of the updated midcycle Hilux due in late 2001.

IMV sufficed for Hilux, while an adaptation of the 120-Series Prado/GX 470 architecture, was deemed suitable for the more upmarket ascent desired for the 2005 Tacoma. Toyota wanted to finally knock the Ranger off of its long held perch, as at Ford we were in the midst of planning both a replacement for Yuma architecture that was getting old in 2000 (yet we kept it until 2011). As well as knockout any potential threats, from DaimlerChrysler with the 3rd generation Dakota. GM's planned S-10 replacement was already known to be a joke, especially as some info on it leaked in 2001, well ahead of it appearing for MY 2004.

The 2nd generation Tacoma arrived when it did, because Toyota was in the midst of serious expansion across two brands and needed all the resources it could get in the 1500 class. Sequoia and Tundra were deemed more pertinent, than a 2002 Tacoma. The semi-modular K Platform for the Highlander and future Camry, plus derivatives were also a major demand. The 4Runner was as good as dead in 1998, after December 31, 2000. Highlander would've replaced it. Hilux Surf was no longer needed, with the advent of the 90-Series Prado and Americans could just get a body on frame Land Cruiser or Sequoia. If they wanted smaller, Highlander or RAV4. If they wanted BOF, there was the Lexus equivalent of Prado due for 2003. This did not help the Tacoma's case, for an earlier renewal in 1997-98.

The 3rd generation was a product of a market downturn and little competition in this class. Ranger was removed, as was the Colorado/Canyon that went on hiatus, Suzuki's offering was a badge-engineered joke, and the Dakota removed by FCA as well. This happened over time, but around 2009 after the first Tacoma refresh for MY 2009, the decision was made to suspend planning of a 3rd generation Tacoma and invest instead in a Major-Minor change of the newly adopted 150-Series basis for 2016, as well as an additional Mid-Model Change for 2012.

Toyota decided that this 3rd generation, Major Minor Change would run 6-8 years at the max and no longer. They would begin development a new generation Tacoma 1/3rd of the way through that 6-8 year run and update the 3rd generation Tacoma for either MY 2019 or MY 2020, before that. By 2015 introduction, they ultimately had decided on a 7 year run for the 3rd generation, meaning September 2015 to August 2022 and mid-cycle for MY 2020. By 2019 when the MMC debuted (known internally as 625B), Gen 4 slipped to MY 2024 in September 2023. Now it's February 2024.

I have said this in some fashion for years now. I am tired of repeating myself, because as a industry professional and automotive historian/enthusiast, I do my best to keep my info up-to-date and informative, for it to be glossed over this much and discarded in favor of endless skepticism. Not necessarily pissed off, but these kind of questions are very old at this point and serve as a distraction to staying on message. There is too much info out there, which discredits any theory of 2026 or 2027. We shouldn't be asking these questions at this point, as this isn't 5 years ago.