Space and Science BS Thread

What's the rated storage time in fl wx?

 

I wonder how long it will take to revert pad 1 to launch capability, it seems a lengthy process to have to repeat between testing and launching then testing again for both ships and boosters. Better than the alternative but even having this capability will still lose more time before flt10. If pad 2 isn’t finished this might prove to be the last launch of the year. I think they could possibly repeat the process by November if they can launch by early September but that’s close to the cadence they had without this complication.

 

Great question, I have no idea.

What I do know is every day before this administration began the schedule constantly pushed to the right. Since the switch, the schedule has consistently pulled back to the left. Whatever the scheduled launch date is March something, schedulers and Flow management are pushing for a February launch.

I would be fine with that as one of the very last steps before launch is Hydrazine loading of the Aft skirts from the 0 level of the Mobile Launcher. Last time around it happened mid summer and it was brutal.

 

So at least 6 months+? Though I guess it's sitting in climate control until it's actually stacked... Just thinking about the Starliner OFT-2 valve issue.

 

6 months yes for sure, yeh it's inside...as far as Starliner, they have two capsules vieing for the same spot, not sure if they've said that publicly. Both with it's own issues..

 

Anyone surprised?
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/is-the-dream-chaser-space-plane-ever-going-to-launch-into-orbit/

 

From Spaceweather.com today:

THE GREAT STARLINK RE-ENTRY EVENT: SpaceX just conducted a giant uncontrolled experiment in atmospheric chemistry.

Earlier this year, analysts noticed something strange: Starlink satellites were falling out of the sky--a lot of them. Four to five per day were re-entering Earth's atmosphere and vaporizing in plain sight. This went on for months. Between December 2024 and July 2025, more than 525 Starlinks deorbited.


Above: The number of Starlinks deorbited each month since 2020.

What’s going on? In short: routine housecleaning. These were mostly first-generation (Gen1) satellites, deliberately retired to make room for newer models. SpaceX is currently launching up to 50 new Starlinks per week, maintaining a fleet of 8,000 satellites. Weeding out the old ones is just business as usual.

What’s not usual is the atmospheric fallout. The fiery re-entry of even one Gen1 Starlink satellite produces about 30 kilograms of aluminum oxide vapor, a compound that erodes the ozone layer. A new study finds these oxides have increased 8-fold between 2016 and 2022, and the Great Re-entry Event increases this pollution even more.

To put this into perspective: Before the first Starlink launches began in 2019, only about 40 to 50 satellites re-entered per year. SpaceX just brought down ten years' worth in only six months, adding an estimated 15,000 kilograms of aluminum oxide to the upper atmosphere.

​

Right: A current map of Starlink satellites orbiting Earth. [more]

Even before the current surge, scientists were sounding the alarm. In February 2023, NASA flew a WB-57 aircraft over Alaska at 60,000 feet to collect stratospheric aerosols. A study published later that year found 10% of sampled particles contained aluminum and other metals from the "burn-up" of satellites.

With multiple companies racing to deploy megaconstellations, projections suggest more than 60,000 satellites could be in orbit by 2040. That means reentry debris could soon rival the natural influx of meteoroids, but with very different chemistry. Meteors are mostly rock. Satellites are mostly metal.

A simulation by NOAA scientists suggests that aluminum-rich space dust could heat the stratosphere and mesosphere by up to 1.5°C, and slow the southern polar vortex, potentially altering global weather patterns.

What happens next? We’re about to find out

 

Might be apples to oranges but $5 on these folks getting to orbit before Dreamchaser:
https://youtu.be/3tva1O0nsK0

 

Sounds like NASA changed the certifications for ISS approach. One wonders if even dragon would have been delayed by this requirement.

 

Not sure it’s on NASA, the article states the certifications Dreamchaser needs. Seeing they’re how many years behind schedule, looks like they could go with the berthing or even the near ISS option just to get it going.

 

But it also mentioned changes including mandatory end to end software testing/certification after the Starliner fiasco which has to be a major effort so probably a bit of both but it certainly has a different air from the usual “no news is good news”. CT’s would suggest it’s an administrative blockade which isn’t much of a stretch to imagine.

 

End to end software testing for human rated capsules should’ve been mandatory from the get go.


Also:

 

Agreed, in as far as manned flights go but this isn’t. But if it’s a change in the process then it changes the time line for a launch. Spacex seems to be able to fly … then fix, rather than test ad nauseum before flying. Granted, Starliner made it an issue on both unmanned and manned flights but is it really an industry problem or just their problem and should DC be held back for it when Dragon wasn’t? If it can’t make the approach then it won’t be allowed but this smacks of influence. Since we do have a viable current option anyone else(other than Boeing, or now Spacex) trying to join the party has to jump hoops and do a dance to be acceptable. Obviously I’m viewing this through the lense of the current blatant favoritism and disfavor so it’s really hard to get a read on what’s really going on but in essence, why the hell would they hold up a launch for this stupid shit when all they have to do is deny approach if it doesn’t stay within designed parameters? It’s unmanned so if it’s a flop then just deorbit without docking.