2021 NASCAR thread

The tentative Atlanta race weekend weather looks like this:

Friday 68% rain
Saturday 42% rain
Sunday 47% rain

Highs low-60s, lows of 40. Perfect camping weather as long as it stays dry.

 

Phoenix By the Numbers:

Past Winners: (2010-2020)

Chevrolet: 11
Toyota: 6
Ford:5
--------------
Harvick-7
Newman-2
Hamlin-2
Logano-2
Ky. Busch-2
Elliott-1

Source: https://www.racing-reference.info/tracks/Phoenix_Raceway

Recent Average Finish:

Ky. Busch- 3.3
Harvick- 4.83
Larson- 7
Hamlin- 7.83
Almirola- 9.67
Keselowski- 13
Truex- 11.5
Ku. Busch- 13
Logano- 13.17
Byron- 13.5

Source: https://www.driveraverages.com/nascar/track_avg.php?trk_id=17

Notes:

• While Harvick has dominated here, he only has one win in a Ford. Some people think SHR is in a rebuilding phase or the other teams have finally caught up to them in performance.
• Toyota has won 4 of the last 7 races here and Busch does well at Phoenix. However, given that Kyle is a test & tune setup guy and NASCAR has done away with practice sessions, Busch's efforts have been significantly hampered. Meanwhile, Hamlin seems to be fast out of the box everywhere.
• We're at that point in the season where teams have (hopefully) established a rhythm. The cream will begin rising to the top and we'll most likely see one of the top performers carry a trophy home on Sunday. Harvick, Busch, and Hamlin are the go-to picks.
• Larson and Almirola are the dark horses. Elliott's November win last year was a fluke as his number put him at 11th in recent average finishes among active drivers. Larson is coming off a win and growing momentum. HMS seems to have a handle on the Camaros.
• While we've had several surprises this season, I wouldn't expect any surprises on Sunday.

My personal picks:

10 , 12 , 37

 

They pretty much left all the rules from last year instead of major changes like usual so the smaller outfits have been able to catch up with the big boys.

That... and no practice is a great equalizer.

21 aint the best at Phoenix so I don't have the highest hopes. Would love to see a Ford get it though.

 

5

 

Ironically enough, things honestly couldn't have worked out better for him. It was truly right place, right time.

 

Welp, here we go, boys:

 

If you need a extra driver, let me know.

 

I've got one. He’s cutting my grass for the rest of the year to pay off his share of this operation. I’m looking for a 6x12 trailer so we can haul this deal to the track.

 

Nice. I always wanted to get into kart racing.

 

...just about ready to go. Let’s get Rowdy!!

#18

 

Enjoying watching my guy having a solid top 10 run.

Is it just me... or does this 750hp package make for more interesting racing?!

 

NASCAR really doesn’t want the 5 car to win today.

 

Sending him to the back just wasn't enough...

 

Congratulations #19

 

I'm not a fan either... but I certainly can't deny he did his thing.

 

Same opinion, plus its better than Fagano.

 

Way to 19. Awesome day for Truex Jr. More to come.

Awesome win team 19. Way to go Martin https://t.co/EEU5d4KX1G

 

Atlanta by the numbers:
(based on data over the past 10 years)

Manufacturer Wins:
Chevrolet: 5
Ford: 4
Toyota: 2

Active Driver Wins:
Keselowski- 2
Harvick- 2
Ku. Busch-1
Hamlin- 1
Ky. Busch- 1

Avg Finish: (over past three Atlanta events/Career)

Harvick- 2/15.7
Truex- 3.3/ 16.27
Keselowski- 4/ 14.58
Ky. Busch-5/ 13.86
Ku. Busch- 5.67/ 14.59
Hamlin- 6.67/ 17.33
Larson- 10.5/ 13.83
Elliott- 12.33/ 10
Blaney- 12.67/ 16.2
Almirola- 12.67/ 17.3

• Chevy is always good here- Hendrick is hot right now. Larson is a threat at the 1.5 tracks. The crowd would go wild if Chase took the home-state win.
• Toyota doesn't have a bunch of Cup wins here but they've dominated the other NASCAR events at AMS over the years. In spite of only 1 Cup win here, it's hard to bet against Kyle Busch. He leads a lot of laps but late-race mistakes keep him from victory lane.
• Ford has won the last 4 races here, split between Harvick and Keselowski, who either win or finish mid-pack. Blaney and Dibenedetto seemed to turn things round at Phoenix. Perhaps they'll grab a surprise V on Sunday.
• The top 5 in points, Hamlin, Keselowski, Logano, Truex, and Larson are all east bets for Sunday.
• Dark horses are the Busch brothers, Elliott, Blaney, and Almirola. Depends on who likes a slick track.
• Temps will be mid-60s, and the track has little to no grip remaining. I turned laps here in August, though not nearly as fast as the Cup guys, and it has certainly aged. It's not Martinsville throwing up chunks or North Wilkesboro growing weeds through the cracks, but it's aged. The track was paved around '88 or '89 and again with the reconfiguration in '97. I was there for the final race on the old surface and the first race on the new surface. I still get goosebumps remembering sitting on the pit wall watching Geoff Bodine turn that screaming 197mph average lap.

Personal Picks: 12, 10, 9




Sources:
https://www.racing-reference.info/tracks/Atlanta_Motor_Speedway
https://www.driveraverages.com/nascar/track_avg.php?trk_id=1

 

Martinsville declined my ticket purchase. It gave me 20% bonus to move my tickets to Darlington in May. Confirmed those seats and got the entire weekend package for only $22 more. Now I have to secure off-site camping within walking distance.

 

Completely agree! The 5 car is going to be a car to watch this year