Alabama thread!

Here’s some pics…

 

From AlabamaWX



After watching the model runs for the past several days, we now have our first advisory from the NHC on the potential tropical cyclone. Folks, there is no reason at this point that we can see that this won’t strengthen to become a hurricane. The NHC is predicting that as well and it has the potential of becoming a major hurricane when it gets to the NE Gulf Coast area on Thursday. There is a lot to process with this update. The main message: Please prepare now for a major hurricane especially along the Florida Gulf Coast. Heavy rain, surge, coastal flooding, a tornado threat….all of this possible along and east of the center. To help with the forecast, our wonderful Hurricane Hunters are pushed away from the tarmac! They will keep us updated so the forecast can be fine-tuned as we move through the next several days.

 

I’m soooo ready for some cooler weather and some much needed rain.

 

Has anyone heard anything from Phillip? My guess he’s still high and laid up.

 

I talked to him yesterday. He was feeling much better. Had some pain but very manageable.

 

I texted him a little while ago and he said he is doing good other than the pain.
I guess the meds aren't much help.

 

Dang!
I hope they don’t wheel a computer in there and make him work from it.

 

Evening Bill.

 

Well, he is already there. And what work he can do they can deduct it from his bill.

 

From AlabamaWX



Information from the NHC 7pm CDT Intermediate Advisory

7pm CDT Stats:

LOCATION…18.3N 82.3W
ABOUT 100 MI…160 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 300 MI…485 KM SE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH…11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

Changes with this Advisory:

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Grand Cayman.

Other Current Advisories Include:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Grand Cayman
* Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of
Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dry Tortugas
* Lower Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge



The NHC is now suggesting the possibility of tropical storm/hurricane watches being added for the Florida Coastline as soon as tonight or tomorrow.

Right now, maximum winds within the system are around 35 mph and the pressure level in the center is estimated to be 1002mb. The NHC is expecting hurricane development by Wednesday. Intense and rapid strengthening of the storm is expected overnight Wednesday into Thursday. High storm surge and hurricane force winds will be a major hazard with this storm, especially to the east of the forecasted area of landfall.

As we continue to get new model data, the forecast for expected hurricane Helene will slightly change over the next couple of days. The latest run of the GFS model at 18Z shows the storm making landfall a few hours earlier than previous runs showed, putting landfall around the evening hours of Thursday, September 26. The expected track of the storm has slightly changed throughout the day today, but the general area of predicted landfall remains the same.



Right now, models are suggesting that landfall will occur somewhere between St. George Island, FL and Tampa, FL. As we go through this week, we should start to be able to narrow down the predicted landfall location to an even smaller area. Estimated windspeeds at landfall are around 115 mph, meaning the storm would reach Category 3 status. Right now, the storm is still in the process of formation, so model data still needs to be taken lightly.

As we have been mentioning, it is imperative that residents along the Florida coastline create a hurricane plan ASAP, if they have not already done so. If the storm strengthens in the way it is forecast to, which is very likely, there is the possibility of mandatory evacuations being implemented along the Florida Coastline. Please urge anyone you know in the path of this dangerous storm to begin developing a plan, so they are prepared for what is to come later this week

 

Good morning Bama y'all have a good and safe day today. Looks like we're going to get some of that storm Thursday and Friday so hopefully everyone makes it through fine.

 

Good morning David.

 

Good morning Barrie. How are you doing?

 

I'm doing alright, raining hard here right now.

 

Good morning everyone, have a great, safe and blessed Tuesday.

 

Good morning David.

Good morning Barrie

 

Good morning Jeff

 

Good morning Jeff.

 

Sup fellas

 

From AlabamaWX

UNSETTLED WEATHER AHEAD: We have a few spotty showers across Alabama early this morning; we will maintain the chance of scattered showers and a few storms through tonight. SPC maintains a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and early tonight; heavier storms there could produce small hail and gusty winds. Otherwise, today will be partly sunny with a high at or just over 90 degrees.

The weather will be wet tomorrow with occasional rain ahead of a surface front, and rain continues Thursday ahead of the tropical system in the Gulf. Rain will likely be heavy at times late Thursday and Thursday night, then the rain will diminish Friday morning. We expect just a few scattered showers Friday afternoon and Friday night.

Over the weekend, a few scattered showers are possible; the highest coverage will likely be on Sunday. But, on both days, the rain won’t be widespread or heavy. Highs will be in the low 80s.

PTC 9: This morning Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 remains disorganized. The broad center is about 240 miles south/southeast of the western tip of Cuba, and winds are 35 mph. It is moving to the northwest at 8 mph.

Not much change to the NHC forecast this morning; the system is expected to become a tropical storm late today or tonight, and a hurricane tomorrow in the Gulf of Mexico. Landfall is forecast in the Florida Big Bend region southeast of Tallahassee Thursday evening as a major, category three hurricane with winds of 115 mph.



Key messages…

*A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood northward and westward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.

*A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from north of Bonita Beach to south of Englewood.

*Main impact in terms of wind, storm surge, flooding, and isolated tornadoes will be from Carrabelle to Cedar Key and down to Tampa Bay (the east side of the circulation).

*The Central Gulf Coast (Gulf Shores to Panama City Beach) is on the good, west side of the circulation with an offshore flow. There will certainly be some rain and wind for places like Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, Port St. Joe, and Cape San Blas, but the big issues with dangerous storm surge will be east of there. The Alabama Gulf Coast, Pensacola, Navarre Beach, Fort Walton Beach, and Destin will have breezy, showery weather, but nothing dangerous based on the current forecast track.

*A 10-15 foot storm surge is forecast from the Ochlockonee River down to Chassahowitzka on the Florida Coast. The storm surge around Tampa Bay is forecast to be 5-8′.



*The southeast corner of Alabama (around Dothan) could see wind gusts to 40/45 mph Thursday night. The rest of East Alabama will see gusts to 35 mph; gusts over the western half of the state will be in the 20-30 mph range.

*The eastern half of Alabama has potential for 4-5 inches of rain tomorrow through Friday morning; rain potential for the western counties is 2-3 inches. A flash flood watch has been issued for Southeast Alabama.



*Tornadoes are not expected in Alabama. Any isolated tornadoes will be along the east of the center of circulation as Helene moves northward (east of Alabama).

*The weather will improve across Alabama by midday Friday; we expect just a few scattered, light showers Friday night and Saturday. Bottom line is that the weather won’t be bad at all for high school and college games in the state, but just keep mind a passing shower can’t be ruled out. Wind will be under 10 mph.

Remember, any tropical forecast can change. Watch for updates!

ON THIS DATE IN 1956: Hurricane Flossy made landfall near Destin as a Category 1 storm.