Empty dealership lots.

Chewy.com ???

 

Regarding the pet food industry.. I should preface that I am a broker within the meat industry..

pet food, whether “wet” or “dry” is heavily dependent on cheap animal byproducts - namely the “drop” from harvesting livestock (the drop is the sack all the organs are in)

In normal times there’s enough workers to separate the different organs and prepare them for sale but now with the same labor issues every industry is facing, small to medium sized plants simply don’t have the manpower to prepare these cuts. Right now, I can buy ribeyes for less than oxtails or tongues (these aren’t pet food items but gives an idea of the skew in pricing)

Pet food companies, especially niche ones that are unfamiliar with meat procurement, are really struggling to find product, let alone afford it.

 

Interesting, my parents knew some friends that had free range grass fed black Angus cows when I was younger and would split half a cow. The quality of meat was so much better than the stuff sold in the local stores. I'll bet most people don't think about how store bought hamburger meat is probably from 2-3 different cows or more in one package.

We've been buying blue buffalo dog food and treats for years. It was recommended by our vet when we got our puppy many years ago as our previous dog had severe skin allergies. Our dog loves it and it's supposedly one of the healthier brands that doesn't throw in a bunch of corn meal or excess animal byproducts as fillers. Chewy.com has been great with monthly orders, but they were low on a lot a while back.

 

My local higher volume Toyota dealership, this is the new car lot, normally holds 300-400 cars pre-Covid.

Today:

 

All that space, they should truck in loads of dirt and build a trails/motocross track. Make some cash.

 

I like your thinking!

 

My local dealer does not have a lot of stock either. I did talk to my sales guy and he said business was still brisk. People call or show up and buy what is allocated with little questions asked. The flip side of the coin is where else are you going to go if you want a Tacoma? You get the same scene at the dealer across town. Sales are brisk. All I have heard since the pandemic started. At least in my town.

 

My local dealer has said even with lack of stock they are moving cars , everything that is allocated is either pre sold or sold within days of hitting the lots . They use to not really bother with used but basically sell every trade they get retail now vs sending to a wholesaler.
Full window price on new cars so they are enjoying good profits and easy sales .

 

Funny you mentioned Chewy.com. a fun fact I didn't know until recently, Chewy.com and Petsmart are one in the same....and petsmart will price match chewy prices....More than once I have gone to petsmart and picked up an item, checked it on Chewy and it was priced significantly lower....

 

Yeah it's not just people being lazy shits, it's also employers suddenly being smacked in the face with the fact that they have to give people a compelling reason to work for them, and are utterly caught with their pants down.
And some place's solution so far seems to be screaming that this is all your fault and someone should come and pull their pants up for them...

Turns out when there's little actual impetus (other than desperation) to debase yourself and get yelled at and coughed on by the general idiot public for ~$10 an hour, your labor force shrinks.
Applicant tracking systems are also trash, and have been hot garbage for a decade and a half at this point- but since your applicant pool was a raging torrent of resumes bashing down your door noone gave a shit, warm bodies came in the door.
Now it's been reduced to a trickle and (some) places are starting to take notice that the ATS yeet'ed some exceptionally qualified candidate's resume into the shitcan because it was missing one keyword, or some equally inane reason.
Just like everything else, the labor market is gonna be a shitshow for a while, and it's unknown territory for employers who had previously held all the cards.

For one thing I am happy to see that it has resulted in some shift towards onshoring business, eliminating "just in time" with foreign components, and so on, but we've dug that hole awfully deep.

Anyways, yeah. Dealerships are wild. I had a Honda Civic Si that I bought in 2019, I drove it for two years and put 13,000 miles on it, and turned around and sold it no questions asked for the sticker price I got it off the lot for. 2 year old car with no depreciation hit isn't a deal that comes around every day.

When I bought my 4Runner a few months ago I also hit the jackpot- the color I wanted, trim level I wanted, and (most) of the options I wanted was the ONE AND ONLY T4R on the dealer's lot. Of course, I had no room for negotiating on the price side, but I did manage to twist their arm on the financing bit.

 

For dealers, I’m sure it’s setting a new perspective. They are probably making 4-5 times the profit per new vehicle than they were pre COVID. It’s going to be interesting to see how things settle out long term. As an owner, if I can sell half as many vehicles, but make more take home, it sure sounds like a win win.

For employment, it generally sucks right now. We’re running short in all our departments and even licensed nurses ghost us on interviews. One of my departments has be down 50% because they all want to work from home and I can’t hire that model. Been that way for almost a year. PRN staff are eating my budget like candy.

 

Said but true we just ordered enough for our 3 doggies for the winter. 46lbs bags.

 

Toyota production news.

https://jalopnik.com/toyota-sees-the-light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel-1847870343

 

Around here (central Texas) almost every Tacoma 4x4 is sold before it gets to the dealership so you'll never see them on the lot. The 4x2 sell but not as briskly and you'll occasionally see a SR or a SR5. Most dealerships here are selling at MSRP or just over.

 

Just stopped by our dealership (Lithia Toyota, Medford OR). They had one silver TRD OR 4x4 on the lot. I didn't check the sticker price.

 

I concur about pet-food... shelves are bare and have been for weeks. I have to go to lots of places to find something my cat will eat.

As far as the topsy-turvy employment scene is concerned, there a people taking advantage of the system, but the 'system' ( ie: employers )
have been taking advantage of employees for decades.

I listened to an independent food establishment guy going on about how he can't afford to pay his people more than $2.15 an hour or he'd go out of business.
Well pal... you can't afford to be in business then can you. Try going to work for someone else who wants to pay YOU $2.15 an hour. The audacity that his 'people'
should work for peanuts so he can drive a new BMW and live in a big house on the hill is why we are where we are at.

Here's a model that worked well for Bill Gates:
Hire good people
Pay them damn good money
Go fishing

People want to work, they want to 'earn' their keep.

I was making 100k a year when the 'company' I worked for for 15 years decided I couldn't work from home anymore ( pre covid ).
I balked at offers from others wanting to pay me 60k. I'd rather live in a box than to make you millions while you pay me less than I'm worth.
I walked and took so-so-security.

The zinger: In order to get my 'severance pay' from above mentioned company, I had to fly in and spend 2 weeks training my THREE REPLACEMENTS.
The company is begging for qualified computer analysts - so-sorry... oh the THREE REPLACEMENTS I trained, they left for greener pastures.

 

The other issue with a market based economy. I run a remodeling company. My 3 lead carpenters have been with us for 20 years or more, the next highest employee, less than 2. We’ve had adds posted indefinitely since the pandemic when I lost 2 guys, one to an out of state move because Seattle has driven working class people out catering to the tech community and the other to “greener pastures.”

Until they stopped the added unemployment benefits hiring was absolutely stagnant, then in the past few weeks all the sudden multiple applicants. Where were these assholes during the pandemic? It’s not for shortage of work, we have been steadily growing to now a feverish pace since the last recession. Pluses and minuses to the influx of money from people moving here for high end jobs in tech and support, so while it pisses me off the city has been transformed from having heavy blue collar influence, I can’t complain because my livelihood has been insured as of now.

We offer competitive wages, good benefits, and a culture of professionalism and are willing to invest and train, but the shortage of people in labor who are chasing “greener pastures” but end up working in the food industry leaves the relative few people who want to work in skilled/craft industries able to demand a lot, and be highly sought after.

It’s not a good situation, nor is it sustainable, and while yes, there have been employers who take advantage of employees for a long time, it leaves companies like mine wanting, looking desperately for high character people who don’t want to get fat and go blind staring at a computer screen.

It’s very much a culture to run a company how I do, but the last 15 years of people entering the job force have been sold on this, “I deserve everything.” shit amd don’t understand you have to work for it.

Not everyone is going to get a $100k job in tech, SO STOP FUCKING SELLING THEM ON $100k IN COLLEGE DEBT!

And also, you’re not all unique snowflakes. I started at $8 an hour in 1995 as a laborer and wasted my time on 3 years of higher learning, not because I lacked aptitude, but because I was motivated by my hands in the dirt, and I earned my way to where I am now.

 

being worth more now means little unless you were planning on getting out of cars all together. You might get what you paid, but what you buy is outrageously more expensive as well.

If you want to see something interesting, look at Vroom, Carvana, Carmax, etc and look at the carfax of any FCA product. Those guys are selling used cars for more than what was MSRP. (FCA puts their window stickers on the Carfax)

Case in point - Used 2021 Jeep Wrangler Unlimited For Sale ($53,999) | Vroom

MONRONEY (carfax.com)

$5200 OVER MSRP 5K later.

 

Promising, though the broader problems extend across all makes. Toyota is positioned to capitalize on other brands' struggles by picking up additional buyers. So the demand will probably remain elevated for Toyotas, even with strong production.

 

The pandemic has wrecked havoc on all manner of peoples lives. I suspect it will be another year or two before things smooth out. There appears
to be a very promising 'treatment' around the corner which would be a game changer. One thing for sure, I'll be wearing a mask every flu season
from now on when in public. I think there was like zero flu cases last year.