If you Paid over MSRP, what happens in 3-5 years?

You always have a choice. Anything else is bs.

 

If you paid over MSRP for a new vehicle.... Yeah probably hosed in a few years. I haven't bought a new vehicle since 2005. And that was a Tacoma actually. I paid about 2500 under sticker for that one. I did recently pay probably 3 grand too much for my 2017 but I also had quite a bit to put down so I am by no means upside down on it. Everything is inflated now. I could sell my motorcycle for more than I paid for it 3 years and 15k miles ago. I could probably make a great deal on my house too. But where would I go? I'm another one of those that stopped watching the news and following politics years ago. Just makes me angry. Live your life and enjoy it.

 

True. You just have to be willing to deal with the consequences. Every choice has them.

 

I try not to worry about the next 3 - 5yrs, and I just enjoy today, and my truck. There is very little that I can control.

Why waste my time trying to control the future? It hasn't even happened yet!

 

The current financial market has opened up a new era for manufacturers. Lower production = more demand, higher prices (more profit), less production plant overhead.
This could be the new normal. In 3~5 years we might be looking at $65k new TRD OR's.

 

Yep, its called inflation.

 

I personally am hoping interest rates get crazy high! At this point in my life I will not be borrowing any more money and I would not mind shifting a good chunk of my equity investments over to (relatively) risk free CD's paying 4% or more.

PS: I remember crazy inflation and double digit home mortgage interest rates back in the early 70's. We survived that and we will survive this too!

 

1) Lower production = More demand. This primarily helps the dealerships, not the manufacturers. Dealerships get a discount for buying in bulk, the average consumer does not.
2) This business model has been tried before, and it failed.

The goal of any business, of every business is to make as much product as possible so EVERYONE has the opportunity to buy it at a reasonable rate. Keyword being reasonable.

 

That's probably right. Look at the price for new commercial vehicles. That's more of a supply versus demand issue. Commerce needs vehicles to stay in business, and if they can't afford them with what profit they make. Those businesses will have to borrow more money to make money. The regular car buyer will have to offset that cost at their expensive when purchasing a new vehicle. The consumer will also be paying more for what ever services those businesses perform.

Manufacturing will eventually focus more on commercial vehicle production once the demand increases. Driving the price of new vehicles up, because the supply of new vehicles will go down to accommodate commerce.

The price of everything will go up, as the supply of all goods catch up, and the demand for goods will go up while trying to accommodate the growing supply.


The price of a new Tacoma is going to be insanely high in 3 to 5 years.

Will the demand for a used Tacoma be that strong in 3-5 years? That's hard to say, but overpaying for a new one now. Probably won't be doing a buyer any favors in 3-5 years.

 

I think the factor that will change the value of our current trucks the most will be the requirement of E vehicles in the next 10 years. In Washington all vehicles sold in 2030 will need to be an E vehicle or hybrid. Which I believe will drive up the prices of lower mileage gas vehicles.

 

Doesn't hurt one bit to consider putting that money into fixed annuities like 2 year ones that are a rated, you'll double a banks interest rate....where to you think banks invest their money? I've never had one go belly up yet.

 

why would electrical become more affordable? there aren't significant plans for new power stations, but there are significant plans to make more and more devices powered off that grid.

if anything, electric's going to become more expensive, not less.


as an electrician, i've got literal skin in the game. for it to come true would be extremely lucrative for my company, and me.

but i'm just not seeing it.

what i'm seeing is that the people already with money are upgrading to ev's, mostly because they have an extra $100k to blow on the car and charger, and it's the 'in' thing to do.

in the midwest, we have basements, many of them are fully-finished. many of the electrical panels are in the basement, many times nowhere near the garage. about a year ago, we did a tesla charger, the total material cost to install was closing in on $10k and took 2 days worth of work for us, plus drywall patching/painting. that was a rather large house with a finished basement, so somewhat an exception to the rule. but to need to quote anywhere near $5k for a a car charger for anyone with a finished basement with the panel on the opposite side of the house, that's going to have a significant effect on the take-rate for home chargers.

not to mention, many smaller houses only have 60-100A panels, so they need upgrades beyond just the car charging plug to be compatible(many local code enforcement also require the entire house be brought up to current electrical code as well, adding even more cost). added to that factor is that many of those smaller houses are owned by people that are already struggling with typical house update costs.

compounded to that, almost no major electrical companies are doing much in the way of grid upgrades...

i expect the OEM's to fully comply with the 2030 mandates. but i don't expect ev's to take off at least until 2050 though, as literally everything is working against ev adoption.

 

I should’ve been more specific… I’m talking about the vehicles themselves. Hybrids or all-electric vehicles are still quite cost restrictive for many. Once this changes, whether it’s hybrids or all-electric, it’s hard to imagine that a used vehicle getting 18 - 22 mpg will fetch a decent dollar. Hopefully gas fueled vehicles will see a significant improvement in fuel efficiency as well. I can not imagine we’ll move in any other direction. The question is at what rate. Even from an energy independence perspective it makes sense.

 

Hybrids make more sense to me.

 

You will be backwards. Very very backwards lol.

 

That's my thoughts, I'm actually even finding it hard to believe banks or CUs are financing anything over 90% of vehicle sale value.

 

I will tell the dealer they have to pay what I paid over msrp if I trade it in or I will sell it private party ( I usually sell them private party anyway).

 

LOL, I'm sure that your demands will have them quaking in their boots.

 

Yep, any dealer is going to tell you to go pound sand.

 

My Crystal Ball is broke, so I can’t tell you