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If you Paid over MSRP, what happens in 3-5 years?

Discussion in '3rd Gen. Tacomas (2016-2023)' started by Mikestill, Apr 9, 2022.

  1. Apr 10, 2022 at 3:16 PM
    #101
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    Great post from someone with their ass in the middle of it. If anyone isn't afraid of some honest work and willing to do a IBEW apprenticeship...what a great way to make a living for the rest of your life (side work will be endless as well). Right now in CO, getting an electrician to do projects is tough. Too much work, not enough electricians. Hell, my work pays Electricians 44.00 per hour on the low side and we still have problems getting applicants due to the high cost of living in the past 5 years.

    Interesting you bring up the 60/100A services in homes. What some people don't realize is you can update your breaker box all you want, but if you can't update your service to handle a 150/200A panel it won't do any good. As you stated, at a significant cost to the homeowner if even available. We have been doing a lot of service upgrades in our city, even on homes built just in the late 70's, early 80's. Right now, the typical residential pad mounted transformer is a 1 year lead time. We have actually started putting overhead transformers into vaults. Lucky linemen....

    I feel for the people on the West/East coast in dense populated areas. The great thing about the East coast is the amount of generation (especially nuclear power) compared to places that heavily relied on fossil fuel. There are a lot of projects to increase power generation, but not with fossil fuel. This creates other problems (voltage/frequency and reliability) and can overload the current power grids. I have seen 3500 MW of wind power go away in 20 min. That is a lot of generation to make up with **gasp** dirty fossil fuel power. My city is purchasing power storage (large battery banks, 40 MW) to help with peak loading and unreliable wind/solar power. The down side is the overall cost. Our city has shut down coal operations at one power plant and is only burning natural gas...which is so inefficient to say the least. Most days we don't even run the plant due to cost and keep it as extended reserve power in our portfolio. Our newest coal unit will be shutting down in 2027. In the past two years I have seen NG prices just skyrocket. Once coal is gone, you will really see an increase in ones electrical bills. Right now when I look up on our generation stack on pricing, coal is around 18.50 per MWH. Natural gas units are anywhere between 24.00-58.00 per MW. Now you have to make a profit....

    I have a buddy that went 110% solar system on his house. This costs him 140.00 per month since he financed it (38000). I understand why he did it since his monthly electric bills were 400.00. For the most part...now it's the 140.00 finance cost. Then he went EV. Not only was the SUV 64000.00 (he did get a tax credit since it was a Volvo. Tesla is out on tax credits now), it increased his electric bill each every month to around 140-150.00. He only drives the SUV two weeks out of the month and takes his Lexus the other two weeks. So if he did drive the EV every day to work, his costs would be 280-300 per month on electricity....on top of the rather large monthly payment for the Volvo SUV. We ran the electrical for the service in the garage, so those costs were minimal compared to what some places wanted to charge. For some reason...the math doesn't add up for me. Then again, I refuse to have vehicle payments and keep them for longer than the typical owner.

    Things are going to get sporty in the next 10 years. I will have a pad mounted whole house generator...we may need them with all the scheduled brownouts.
     
    44-16 Taco and STELLARR like this.
  2. Apr 10, 2022 at 4:11 PM
    #102
    rnish

    rnish Well-Known Member

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    There is no requirement that you charge the EV at home. Yes super chargers need to be built out. They need to be ubiquitous like gas stations. In the near future (~5 -10 years) solid state batteries will be a reality in a vehicle near you. SS batteries (in the pre production) are capable of a 80% charge in 5-15 minutes.
     
  3. Apr 10, 2022 at 5:23 PM
    #103
    soundman98

    soundman98 Well-Known Member

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    that's what you get for rubbing it trying to get the genie to come out!
     
    NMBruce[QUOTED] likes this.
  4. Apr 10, 2022 at 5:34 PM
    #104
    NMBruce

    NMBruce Well-Known Member

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    LOL

    not as hard as I did when I was a kid
     
    soundman98[QUOTED] likes this.
  5. Apr 10, 2022 at 5:37 PM
    #105
    TheDudeinPhx

    TheDudeinPhx Well-Known Member

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    Good source says expect a 12% msrp increase next year on new Tacoma models. Expect the redisgn to be a hot commodity and selling over msrp, so value on current tacomas will be almost as strong as now and they have always been.
     
  6. Apr 10, 2022 at 5:51 PM
    #106
    rnish

    rnish Well-Known Member

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    This a 4th Gen or a 3G refresh?
     
  7. Apr 10, 2022 at 5:54 PM
    #107
    soundman98

    soundman98 Well-Known Member

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    this is the part where you want me banned. i'm non-union. tried signing up with the ibew, early on out of high school, went to the hall and everything about 15-20 years ago. unfortunately, i'm a white male, so no minority. they gave me a clipboard to put my name and number on, told me they'd call me in 4-5 years, maybe. so i was just supposed to twiddle my thumbs waiting by the phone... as it happened, 4-5 years was when the 2009 recession hit, and they laid off 3/4's of the electricians...

    company i work for has had work all through the recession, and keeps me busy, which is more important to me anyways--idle hands make me spend money i don't have on parts i don't need!

    some specifics of the area are relevant here--we do work in illinois as well as indiana. the indiana side is on a state-wide code system. the illinois side leaves it up to each individual city and inspector, and the inspectors can require literally whatever they want... so in my area, code revisions from the 2008 through 2020 apply at different areas. many illinois inspectors/towns require that if we do a panel change, the ENTIRE house must be brought up to the towns current code revision-- that means proper number and amperage of circuits, adding interconnected smoke detectors, and GFCI's. most houses have been updated some, but there are still a few that are the basic early 1900 4-circuit deals where there's 1 outlet in the kitchen for a coffee maker, and a light bulb in each room in the rest of the house to see... a 'simple panel' change can easily surpass $5k and take a full week of work... it can all get out of hand really quick, when someone calls for a 'simple' car charger plug for their new $50k car. you can imagine how difficult it is for many people who just barely budget to get a new car, and then start getting quotes in the 5 digit range to power that car.
     
    ColoradoTJ[QUOTED] likes this.
  8. Apr 10, 2022 at 5:54 PM
    #108
    TheDudeinPhx

    TheDudeinPhx Well-Known Member

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    Refresh or reface 12 percent expect a bump on msrp in upcoming months on current.
     
  9. Apr 10, 2022 at 6:00 PM
    #109
    G0AT

    G0AT Tell me how you really feel

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    Keep in mind the EPA mpg requirements creeping ever upwards puts limits on manufacturer production for SUVs/trucks since they have to reach certain corporate average fuel efficiency standards. That coupled with the fact many consumers today are willing to pay MSRP or over gives manufacturers plenty of incentive to slow their production roll to maximize profits.

    Now, paying over MSRP? that's called the instant gratification tax, and you won't get that back. And if you do, then something is seriously wrong with the economy, so you might want to evaluate how recession resistant your livelihood is.
     
    soundman98 likes this.
  10. Apr 10, 2022 at 6:02 PM
    #110
    Dauchinouski

    Dauchinouski Well-Known Member

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    with all the supply chain issues prices are going to keep going up. once all that is sorted out prices will probably start to fall.
     
  11. Apr 10, 2022 at 7:20 PM
    #111
    ColdTaco49

    ColdTaco49 Has a well-used member

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    I paid 8k over MSRP on mine, but I could really care less if I get it back on the back end. My truck was paid off when it left the lot so I’m not in danger of being upside down on it. The price is going to be the price, driven by whatever the market supports. it’s just a matter of how much you’re willing to pay to get what you want.
     
  12. Apr 10, 2022 at 9:27 PM
    #112
    DustyTacosOnTuesday

    DustyTacosOnTuesday Member

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    The potential loss of the MSRP+ value is likely already factored into the purchase decision for most purchasers. You accept that fact/possibility when buying; and yet everyone's still buying; demand is high. So i assume most people just factor it into their cost and that's that. I would hypothesize that a very high percentage of car buyers do not strictly consider resale value when buying; it's more about immediate needs -- for the small percentage who do all the associated math - this is a scary time in the car market, a lot of unknowns over next 5 years...
     
  13. Apr 10, 2022 at 9:41 PM
    #113
    tonestar

    tonestar Well-Known Member

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    I think it’s very simple what’s going to happen. People are blinded by scare tactics from main stream media. “Inflation, inflation, inflation” …. Great, let me know when 100% of the country gets raises to match inflation and higher prices for literally everything. What comes next is easy…. Used car prices, specifically trucks drops pretty heavily over the next year. Used car prices are selling for more than new at the moment, we’re mostly all adults here- we understand that’s not how depreciating assets work, ever.
    The fed needs to push inflation lower, that will push the market lower this year- raise interest rates basically causing people to “buckle in” with their spending more and not buy $45,000 Tacoma’s marked up into oblivion that get full size truck gas mileage. I love tacos just as much as everyone here. I’m just realistic about what’s coming….
     
  14. Apr 10, 2022 at 9:44 PM
    #114
    STELLARR

    STELLARR Well-Known Member

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    in 5 years a bone stock tacoma (of any trim) will likely sell faster and for more money than the one with 5k in mods. Ironically for a truck with astounding resale value, you kind of need to let go of the "resale value" concept to really enjoy
     
    Vmax540 and zoo truck like this.
  15. Apr 10, 2022 at 9:45 PM
    #115
    Taco75605

    Taco75605 Well-Known Member

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    Prices are dictated by supply and demand. It’s impossible for me to even guess what will be in store in a few years. Things could be the same, a lot better or even a lot worse.
     
  16. Apr 10, 2022 at 9:47 PM
    #116
    stealthmode

    stealthmode Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. I would would be buying "gap" insurance if I had to finance. In the event it's written off and you owe more than it's worth.
     
    Mikestill[QUOTED][OP] likes this.
  17. Apr 10, 2022 at 9:55 PM
    #117
    OZ TRD

    OZ TRD Well-Known Member

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    Trucks will be worth whatever the market says in 3-5 years…
    (Who knows…)

    If inflation keeps-up, you may well get a good chunk of your dealer adjustment back. But this will mean little as a new tacoma will cost $80-90k!
     
  18. Apr 11, 2022 at 2:24 AM
    #118
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    Yes, this is true and a convenience for those with 100A services that don’t wanna spend 5000.00+ on an upgrade. Not sure how people that don’t even live remotely close to a SC will make this work…but hey…it’s green.
    The power requirements don’t change for the grid. In fact, level 3 SC can be 600V and 300A which would increase the demand. That isn’t easy to just “upgrade” and the cost is significant to build. Now let’s say these chargers are in use 50% of the time during peak hours. That is a lot of electricity. My wife designs electric distribution and residential power lines (I worked as a lineman and now run a power block) and believe me…the struggle is real. Hell, I just got back from work from a 7 hour call out. We couldn’t even do any testing because losing 100 MW was going to cause rolling brown outs and it wasn’t worth the risk. The power wasn’t available. I watched wind generation drop from 3500 MW down to 600 MW in a matter of a few hours. Oh well, easiest 800.00 I’ve made this month.

    My Manager has a Tesla model s and purchased his used from a private sale. Lucky for him, the original owner purchased a package to charge at Tesla SC for life of the vehicle. Not sure what that cost. He lives right around the corner from my place, so we drive about the same distance every day (80 miles round trip min). So he has to stop and charge every other day on the way home. Mostly, he does everyday since driving around to other power plants in his division. He has said it’s getting old stopping and just sitting there answering emails after a 10-14 hour day. Personally if I wasn’t paying for the charge…no complaints here.

    The next house I build in a few years after retirement will definitely have EV charger ready even if I don’t own one. Hell, it will probably be standard by then. I’m not against EVs, but if I plan on dropping 55-80k on a car, it will be a ZR1 Corvette…because race car.
     
    soundman98 likes this.
  19. Apr 11, 2022 at 2:48 AM
    #119
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    Definitely banned:rofl:!!!

    Guess what? I don’t care if you are union or not. Sounds like the company you work for has done right by you and visa versa. :thumbsup: The important thing here is you have maintained employment and supported a family (assumption here). Not going into the whole race thing. I have been discriminated against due to the color of my skin and could care less. That’s about them, not me and it has never held me back.

    I can’t say much about the electrical code. Personally, I would want the most up to date code revision. The janitor that cleans our building just lost most of his house and damn near killed his daughter due to faulty wiring. House is only late 80’s, but it was very scary for his family. We all got together and donated a grip of money to help him out. USAA has been covering most things and set them up good.

    I don’t feel sorry for people that have vehicle payments. That’s a choice. If someone purchases a 50k dollar car and doesn’t do the research on what it takes to operate it..that’s on them. I can’t remember the last time I had a vehicle payment.
     
  20. Apr 11, 2022 at 4:08 AM
    #120
    rnish

    rnish Well-Known Member

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    People living in the sticks will deal with EV’s the same way they deal with slow internet, spotty cell phone and sub standard medical service. Deal with it or move to the city. US “Rural Electrification” and phone service is relatively recent, 1950-60’s ish. The national highway buildout also has an Eisenhower genesis. The “change” will take a national effort. Technically it’s possible, accepting the building of small nuclear and windmills is a people problem. As I deftly stay away from the other “P” word.

    The promise of SS batteries is electrical storage on a industrial scale. Electrical power generated off hours and available on peak will be realistic. People who object to the natural gas peaker plant near/in their community will have less objection. Particularly when faced with freezing in the dark.

    The nex gen ZR1 will have a EV option, with performance equal to or superior to ICE. Again with the battery.
     
    tstack22 and ColoradoTJ[QUOTED] like this.

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