Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Man, what a roller coaster these days.. One minute you’re down $400 next minute you’re up $300..

 

Or in the case of yesterday, up over $1k!

 

I really want to pull the trigger on NIO around $5, but I keep having PTSD about APRN and I don't want to go through that again.

 

all this yield curve inversion - looming recession stuff has me rethinking buying a home right now. There's no way to tell how much the housing market would be affected by a recession.. I don't see another 2009 scenario since lending standards are much tighter, but the FHA and shadow banks are financing a large share of home purchases so who knows!

 

I think the yield curve has to stay inverted for a quarter ? before it actually provides the "signal" for a recession. It's not there yet.

 

I also don't know if the recession will be a big deal for housing.. I don't think we have as much of a problem as we did in 2008. I could deal with a 10% drop in home prices, but more than that, right after buying a house, would be hard to stomach for a few years

 

Are you staying put or are you going to be moving within 5 years?

 

If I buy a house I will stay in it at least 5 years

 

To me a house is shelter, a place to raise a family. I wouldn't worry about timing the market. Timing the market is fruitless anyway. One piece of advice if you have a family and are going to stay put. Buy a big enough house the first time so you dont have to try and move up in size down the road.

 

it's pretty tough here in this market. I'm already blowing a lot of money on rent, so my thinking is to get a 2 bedroom townhome close-ish to the city and use that to build equity, so I can have a more money in assets to use to buy a larger house later if necessary, rather than forgoing that opportunity cost by continuing to rent.

 

this infographic makes me feel better lol


https://www.curbed.com/2019/1/10/18139601/recession-impact-housing-market-interest-rates

 

^ Based on that, it seems like a house is a safe place to put your money during a recession (except of course in 2009).

 

yeah. I feel better now haha

 

What are you waiting on? There is literally zero benefit to renting (if staying in fixed location) regardless of the market conditions

 

Not waiting anymore haha. I'm looking. Just have enough to qualify conventional so I'm ready to pull the trigger.

 

No benefit financially (in terms of building equity). But you save a lot of money not having to spend a penny on anything other than the rent. I'm not saying it's better, but definitely a nice deal for a renter.

 

Very nice! I bought right out of college but had to eat some PMI in the process unfortunately.

 

I looked at many hypotheticals.
Renting and investing saved money or
buying and building equity

In a flat or declining market, renting is more beneficial if the stock market has 10% returns.
But if the home appreciates any amount, it's game over and buying makes more sense.

 

I'll still have to pay PMI.. it would take years to rent in this market and also save up $60-70k for a 20% down payment (not including all the other costs at closing). But the opportunity cost of buying is still there so that's why I'm thinking now is a good time.. the prices are flattening out a bit and mortgage rates have declined for several months now (an interesting mismatch in buying sentiment vs reality and things are overshooting each other). Hoping they continue to fall because I'm looking at new construction that won't be done until august.

 

I look at the same things. If you can earn a better return on your money in stocks than the interest rate for borrowing, I'd rather borrow and pay monthly. Also, if you can create a passive income that is above your expenses, nothing wrong with mortgage or rent payments. You're right, you gotta crunch the numbers though.