Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

10% is optimistic

 

Well my thing isn't needing the capital as much. It's more convincing myself what's a solid deal to invest in. I guess that's where an agent or a wholesaler comes in if I didn't want to look myself?? Tell them find me the deals that match this criteria and you'll be my agent. Make them sell it to me. Explain to them I'm patient and have the funds you just have to put me on the lead. Remind whoever is looking it's sole purpose is rental and what may not be nice to some is exquisite to others.

I've thought about buying a first gen, but then i still have a third gen that isn't going anywhere. no one needs two trucks, but I sure would like to have them. Only way my 3rd gen goes is if it's totaled. I do have an 05.5 Jetta Tdi I daily that get's 40mpgs and i drive it like a rental. it's got 200k on it now, I've had it since 160k. It just had timing belt and new clutch put in it at 190k. I had a fender bender that totaled the car at 198k miles. insurance gave me 4100 and i bought the car back for 800. They let me renew tag for the year even with the salvage and I have liability on it. I actually came off better after the wreck

 

I redid the numbers and if you just get a 2% return, you're only down $6k real dollars compared to a 15 year loan. So basically if you just stuff it into a Marcus bank account, you'd still damn near break even. I think a 5% return on SPX is conservative and at that point you beat a 15 year loan by $32k.

 

I agree. I have posted a bunch of times when it comes up that people say loans aren't good. I always compare what you can make at X percent over Y time on your money vs. what you pay in interest over the life of the loan. I agree that 10% is optimistic, but then again that's a long period of time and the S&P (even with the ups and downs) would probably get you close to that.

Edit: I am getting about 4.5% in dividends, and my portfolio is keeping up with the market, so it's definitely better to invest and take on good interest rate loans.

 

Agreed. I think a lot of people are going by the Dave Ramsey approach when advising in favor of the 15 year loan. Not that there's anything wrong with being "debt free", but I think Dave tends to work with people who aren't very good at managing their money in the first place. That's why he has such conservative financial advice.

 

To me, monthly cash flow > assets owned. If you can get cash flow high enough, you can handle a few bills. Not talking about salary, but passive.

 

Agreed. I track my finances to damn near OCD level. I refresh my personal capital app just about 4 times a day haha.

 

Sorry a little tired for math but local market here has annual appreciation between 8-11%. Over the last five years inflation rates were under 3 closer to 2. How would that look on the sheet? The annual rate of increase should be tweaked to the local market but at the end of the day 100% of the rent has 0% ROI.

Here’s a great little video on the last crash. Your not going to see anything like the last housing bubble but like everything else you don’t realize gains or losses until you sell.

https://vimeo.com/3261363

 

Because I'm sure some folks are going to ask.

But Thunder, I'm going to pay off my 15 yr loan 15 years earlier than my 30 year loan. Then I can throw all that extra money into the market and blow past Mr. 30 year mortgage.

Just like you should start saving for retirement as early as possible because of compounding gains/interest, same applies here. Even if you try to play catch up after 15 years (which by the way, is a shit load of time), you still aren't going to catch up.. ever. This picture actually makes the 15 year loan look worse.

 

I will say that I was simply using the average rate of inflation over 30 or so years.
Home appreciation should cancel out in both loan situations since we are theoretically talking about the same house.

Here's the same table with 2% annual inflation.

 

i wish there were local groups that talked about stuff like this. be an awesome "mod day" kinda deal sit around drinking coffee or whatever discussing how to better manage a portfolio. share ideas and what's worked for you and what hasn't and why.

 

That's what we are doing right now I need to go get some coffee though

 

I actually like this thread better than some of the other stuff I read (Seeking Alpha). I learned about mortgage REITs here and now own 4 of them. I'm sure I would have found out about them some other way, but someone posted about CIM a long time ago and I researched for months before getting into any of them.

 

Lyft is on the market weeeee

 

As an old fart I will say spreadsheets are great but will you do it in real life? That's the key otherwise the spreadsheet means nothing.

 

$87..... I’ll pass.

 

Yep. I'll watch it for the entertainment value though. Like most other IPOs, they're burning through tons of cash. Could be the next FB, could be SNAP. The markets are gonna market.

I will say their business model seems more straightforward than FB or SNAP, which are "free" services that have to try to get their money through other means (like ads). Lyft just gets a portion of every ride. Operating costs are the kicker.

 

I have wondered, if you put a small amount into each of these popular IPOs (maybe $1,000 each), and only one hit it big, would you do well. Just 1 Amazon would make you rich in 10 to 20 years.

 

"this pot stock is like buying AMZN at $3.17"

Lol, speaking of moats, I see a new brand of rentable e-scooter just about every 2 weeks around here.

That brings total brands up to:
Bird
Lime
Lyft
Jump
Gotcha

The only one that's come and gone were Ofo bikes, but I guess pedaling/exercising is for plebs.


I think the market is over-saturated, guys.