Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Wouldn't a struggle to export oil from the middle east result in an oil scarcity, and thus raise the global price of oil? How do we reconcile a drop in price?

 

I think that incident did raise the price of oil by quite a bit.

 

Yep, you are right. I had a knee jerk reply post after looking at the OP's chart. I checked on Yahoo finance, and the price is up about $3 from yesterday.

 

I own 3 oil related companies, CVX, ENB, and XOM. They almost never seem to move with the price of oil. They just seem to move with the market, along with the rest of the big companies I hold. It seems all of my stocks just move with the market unless some huge event causes them to move big. But even then, the move seems to not matter a few months later, they're right back with the market and wherever it decides to go. My portfolio is pretty much like SPY or DIA, just pays a little better dividends.

 

should have included the date axis in my picture, that blue line that shows my average share price and roughly the first purchase of those shares was in November of 2018.

It seemed like a good time to buy considering the precipitous drop and the cyclical nature of oil prices. Of course, it has been a bit of a roller coaster since, and I did average down when the price of UWT shares was in the 10s and 11s a week or two ago. So my avg share price is 15.75. It tracks oil price and is 3x leverage but there is a slight problem with backwardation that doesn't exactly correlate to the price of WTI spot prices. So I am down 10% currently but if you look at WTI spot prices, I should actually be up by around 5%. But with 3x leverage, it should shoot past it if we go to $60 a barrel or so.

Date axis included here for context.




and here are WTI spot prices.




That being said, apparently the US is not as dependent on the ME oil as it used to be. I think China still is, though.

The reason for the drop this month was due to tons of surplus oil and poor outlook on oil demand. OPEC was going to discuss additional supply cuts. But of course, any geopolitical tensions will increase the price of oil. So here we are.

 

Gold is up $40 today!

 

Serious and probably ignorant question: what is the point of investing in gold? In 30 years it has tripled, stocks would have doubled 4 times in that time period (compounding, so 16x initial investment). Is it a hedge against an end-of-the-world event, where stocks go to zero, and at least you have something left?

 

They keep track of stocks bought and sold on the same day. Enough occurrences of that marks you as a "pattern day trader" and I think that's where restrictions come in to play.
As fast as I know, buying a stock and selling it the next day would have no effect.

 

Lol, someone on Fintwit did a chart of gold for the last 1,000 years, and it was something like "if you had invested $1,000 in 1275, you'd have $300,000 today!" Lol

Here it is

 

Good article on oil and how the US will benefit from higher oil prices, touches on a few things I said in the earlier post
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/06/20/b...powell-sees-it-too-new-experience-for-the-us/

 

I agree that gold is a less than ideal investment. The returns do not match other investments, and Ill be honest - I sure would like to more than double my money in 30years.

 

I think a guy could day trade it like stocks, yeah but not great buy Nd hold idea for me. I would consider gold for one reason
, to physically have it in my possession. If your perspective is that you want a economic implosion asset currency. I think there is equally strong argument though for food and bullets in that event

 

I am of the idea that if it gets that bad, money, gold, and stocks will be worthless. I plan to take over a prepper's dungeon with bullets. That's all I feel that I need, lots of ammo.

 

Richest person in the world

 

The chart for the price of ammo will go parabolic like Bitcoin a few years ago haha

 

Bitcoin is going parabolic now. Like right now.

 

Holy cow, could have more than doubled your money already this year. I will buy when they start paying a dividend (i.e. never).

 

Yeah man, its a couple year cycle. Bitcoin is the endless bubble that keeps on popping and growing. Ive been watching it for a decade, and without fail every 1.5-2ish years it gets hyped, blown up, the bubble pops, and then six moths later I start accumulating again. If you bought in at the bottom ($2800 in December of 18), you could have tripped your money as of today. Ive moved to swing trading in recent weeks. I road the initial rise, and two weeks ago I set automatic 1% sells for all my buy-ins. I'm really scared of the pop... that is something I have never been able to correctly predict. The strategy seems to be uniquely profitable in the crypto world, but doesnt work very well elsewhere due to the lower volatility.

Anyway, I agree that bullets are a great investment. Worst case scenario, if the market goes belly-up you can at least have a great time at the range. Cant say that for any other investment.

 

I'd be in the food and bullets camp. What the hell are people gonna do with some shiny yellow stuff when everyone is starving and dying?

 

Bitcoin is not about fundamentals and is more about ideology. While I do agree on some aspects of that ideology, putting my money at risk in the name of it is not something I'm willing to do. I just sit back and watch the show

It's been gyrating between 6k and 9k for a while, dropped down to 3k, now that it's having a run up it looks like it has overshot 9k. Who knows where it will go from here. Probably higher, but once the news media starts reporting it in headlines, run for the hills!