Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

U Can Study Buzzed !

 

Which is a correct use of debt in your case. Look, most people dont have these kinds of luxuries. A 1.5% auto loan is almost unheard of. Most folks are looking at 3-4%, at best. Now we are in some gray area - pay it off fast or let it sit?

Yep. He is likely the kind of person that has the ability to understand the math and has the training to implement it on the correct hardware. Although, he is also likely smart enough to know how silly this is when he could just as easily write the next twitter platform and make billions (make sure you show him this too). I have good ideas, I didn't say they were great ideas. I also don't have your son's background, so I bet he has some great ideas.

 

He's learning to. The freshman year was a tough one. Lots of distractions.

 

broke_down I am just wondering (if you want to answer), what would be an average year of returns with crypto? I read about it a lot, haven't had a lot of faith in it, but I am starting to wonder because it's becoming legit as time goes on. Thanks.

 

My older son is an accounting and entrepreneurship major and will hopefully team up with my younger son and take care of their Father in his old age

 

These are great because they can handle non-linear data very well. The key is to understand the math behind the activation functions so you can appropriately apply them to your data, in combination with the ideal number of internal nodes, back propagation and forward propagation steps, and forgetting nodes. A good neural net is hard to beat, and its as hard to create.

R has a base stats package that allows you to do regression models out of the box and you can look up the Bayesian linear modeling package too if you want better error control. The issue here is that you need to highly manicure your data and linearize it to appropriately fit these models.

 

that's actually a really great combo of majors!

 

So when you build a model, how do you go about implementing it into action? Whenever I read about model building, it's almost always "we built this model, this is how it performed against training data and test data".. but it never really goes into actually using said model in an actionable way.

 

The average is tough to quote because it all depends on when you buy in. For most folks they buy in when the market is hot and loose it all when it crashes. For the few who watch closely its like stupidly huge. My return in 2017 was just shy of 3000%. I didn't trade at all in 2018, and now I'm trading again and I'm around 500% return. Mind you, my numbers are because someone is willing to accept my offers, so this means there is someone out there who has lost this much. Be careful.

 

Close. My 15 year fix rate mortgage taxes and insurance is 16% of my take home pay haha.

I’m married, its just the two of us, no kids. No need for anything big. I’m glad too because even cheap homes constantly need repairs.

And of course we live in a low cost of living area.

 

A little bit better than a Philosophy major

 

Its a whole new set of algorithms. If you are trading crypto on coinbase pro, use this package or write your own wrapper: https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/rgdax/index.html

Basically, I use API features between the programing languages I use to pass data between them. I'll give the most recent minute data to my algorithms, and if my algorithms think this is an ideal buy in for me, that gets passed to my purchasing algorithms which them use the above package to place the trade. You can use the same logic for any strategy you want though - predicting sells, bubbles, swing trading, declines, etc.

 

You should be rich with those returns, good lord. If you started with any decent amount, you should be loaded. Then again, risky to start with a decent amount in crypto.

Any negative years in there? That could wipe a lot out with the volatility.

 

any books or online courses you would recommend? I have a stack of OReilly books that I need to read

 

Not quite filthy rich, yet... I started with 200$ in 2017 and used my profits to buy an engagement ring for my wife. I have since committed to trading crypto programmatically, only. Given the success of my coding, it should build me a lot of wealth quickly. I started this year with $500. So, not rich. Like I have said, I am extremely conservative when it comes to my money. We are pouring our cash into etfs at the moment. However, if you think about what will happen to $500 if it compounds at 72% every month.... it gets big fast, and then I will be rich, hopefully. This will fall apart when I try to move so much money that people don't fill my requests, so i am expecting diminishing returns as my account grows.

Also, for reference, I move ~10$ a trade and make about 5cents each time. I can maintain this profit percentage while moving trades upto $1000 each time, which is the max I have computed during the last crash. Right now, when everyone is trading, I can move upwards of 10k a trade. Before any of these crazy ideas can be realize, I need to iron some things out.

Please do not get too awe struck about the magnitude of the numbers. Its a very volatile and unforgiving marketplace. Only put in money you can absolutely 100% not blink an eye over if you loose it. There are MUCH safer investments.

 

I'll respond tonight, I need to get more work done!

 

So you couldn't take $10k and turn it into $300k in a good year (like the 3000% year). Too good to be true I guess, huh. I am still interested. Not necessarily buy and hold with crypto, that's easy if you just look at the charts. The trading thing interests me.

 

yes, 10k to 300k is reasonable. The reason Im taking my time with this is so I can create my own income and retire early. It takes a lot of time to make something like this. What I recommend doing for trading by hand is track key words via google trends: https://trends.google.com/trends/?geo=US

Watch for spikes in people searching for "buy bitcoin". If the market is flat or down, this usually indicates people are getting interested and may represent an easy swing trade. Remember, crypto is nothing but speculation. Its all human emotion. The goal is to beat the crowd to the punch. Have money on the exchange, buy in, and immediately post a sale for +10% or whatever you want to make. It usually take three days for money to get onto exchanges, so there is a lag. Once the market is way up, obviously the volume of people searching goes up, so this becomes less reliable. If you want to buy and ride to the top, get some nerves of steel. Crypto fluctuates +/- 40% week to week. Trust your gut. Also, try to sleep. Crypto is 24/7 trading and you will be tempted to stay up all night once you realize the huge spikes happen between 2-4am.

 

I have wondered if it is possible to make a living as a "day trader," if you could truly dedicate 8 hours a day to it. I really don't think it's possible with stocks, maybe for very few smart or lucky people. It seems like with crypto, it may actually be possible.

 

shut up and take my money!