Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

yeah, I only lost 4% of the 30% from the prior day. Now up 9% on DWT.

 

what do you guys think will happen today at 2 with the Fed interest rate ?

 

I think the market tanked a few percent when the last cut was made, because Powell called it a "mid-cycle adjustment." I think the same will happen, maybe not as severe, but I bet the market drops. It seems Powell is not good with words at the press conferences.

However, it seems that the range has changed, with the new "lows" moving up to the 2,700-2,800 range, and new highs at 3,000+. I doubt it drops to 2,350 again unless there's a recession.

 

I'm guessing hold.

Right now the bond market could unravel any day now. Then things will get very interesting.

 

No way, they will cut for sure. I think they should hold, but they'll cut.

 

the market *wants* them to cut, and they have been clamoring that they do so. But last meeting they had a cut, they said that was it. There are also some indicators that due to the repo stuff that's been going on, that rate cuts are less likely.

 

If no cut, market tanks 5% today alone, and more in the short-term.

I am taking the consensus view of a cut of .25.

Those are my guesses.

 

The problem with the Fed and rates is they are not supposed to be slave to the market. But everyone's logic is that if the Fed does X then the market will do Y. In reality, the Fed rates should be dictated by the actual economy, not the markets..

 

Couldn’t agree more. That’s why I think no cut is best, but doubt that happens.

 

Guess we'll find out shortly!

 

Cut 25 BP. RIP my high interest bank account. Money not invested now back to losing value.

The bond market is going to get real interesting now. The higher end of the curve is already increasing.

Markets are still dropping even though they are going to cut. Guess it wasn't "what they wanted"

 

Don’t forget, last year they tightened and had hikes planned for this year. Now they’re cutting but keep saying it is a one time cut. In other words, they have no idea what they’re doing, and the market will forget in a month.

 

Yeah, they definitely have no idea what they're doing..

We will be at NIRP before we know it.

 

And he's at the podium trying to explain this. Hold tight!

 

I'm mad at him. I don't want to hear what he has to say. Lol

 

One word could make the market move a lot in either direction. It's ridiculous just saying that, this dude doesn't impact the earnings of WMT or TGT.

 

All I hear is "the economy is fine, but we are scared because of other parts of the world and the markets"

 

*economy doing its best in 50 years*

The economy is fine, but we are cutting rates... we are probably going to cut even more once the economy goes down






Seems legit

 

My concern is what happens if the Fed cuts too much... If the market really starts to tank there won’t be anything the fed could do to help.

Personally, I think the fed is doing the right thing at this point. Companies are forecasting lower profits for next year. Its best to wait to see what happens further down the road.

 

Powell said they would "explore other alternatives" to NIRP such as "large asset repurchases" if it were to come to that.

Talking head on Yahoo Finance said "is that written in blood!"