Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

The China market is opening Monday for the first time in a while. It will be very interesting to see what the Kung-Flu will do to their market. I am expecting a 5%-10% on that first day. Who knows though.

 

I will pick up some international holdings if that’s the case.

 

I wonder how long it will last though. This flu epidemic will either create a great buying opportunity, or kill off a good portion of the globe. It's growing exponentially so who knows. Maybe it will be nothing, and end up like SARS, MERS, ebola, etc.

 

I think the bubonic plague in Europe was actually pretty good for their economy because it killed a lot of people but didn’t destroy any physical capital (factories and what not). Unlike a war which destroys both.

 

I know the market is scheduled to open on Monday... I deal with a few companies in China that have already stated that they will not reopen until 2/10..

 

Damn this is gonna be wild. I didn't even know companies that were public could make a decision like that.

 

Yes it is..

You think about McDonald’s closing stores which will also affect Coke sales.. Starbucks closing stores.. No flights into or out of China hitting airlines numbers..

 

This is going to be a real tell on the accuracy AI of the markets to prepriceing the foreign markets at todays closing prices . Back in 2009 during the great recession , it was possible to move money from the US markets on a big up day or down day at the close ,into or out of the foreign (EFA) for a 1 day trade . (in a 401K) It was a sure thing the EFA would go up or down just as the US did the day before .This was before AI and the pricing was changed at the time .

 

That is pretty interesting.

This is going to be a big 1-day event (or maybe a week) in China. Since their markets have been closed for a while, they have a lot of catching up to do with us to the downside! A short trade would be guaranteed money. I don't even know how to do that though.

 

Nowadays it does not work that way as the Funds preprice what they think would happen ahead of time . Back in 2009 , they did not , at least with the 401K provider I had at the time . (The providers changed several times where I was working) I made a tidy sum trading my 401K at the time , I even received a warning from the 401K provider that I may be hurting other people that held the same funds by my trading of the funds . I replied that they tell me what rule I disobeyed , and they did not reply . After that the funds were priced differently at the close of the US markets . To me , I was convinced that the markets were fixed or the secret was out .
The mutual funds will deploy all 401K money from last month on Monday , this will skew the days results of the day , but that is another story .

 

DANG. I wish I knew how to do this.

 

Me too ! Lets face it , The Chinese markets have been closed for a while . For anyone buying or selling it before it closed and while it was closed on different countries via mutual funds etc, how do they determine the prices ?

 

That’s a good question. They probably have an algorithm that analyzes buy and sell orders to determine prices. More complicated than that, but something like that.

 

And another rough day for the markets. I was worried most of the day, but when I got home and checked, my stuff was up almost $1K for the day. A nice end for me to a good month. I feel better about my lower risk dividend stuff now. I think I was up 2% for January which is a nice bonus. I'm happy and hopeful to get 6-7% for the year.

 

Just did my taxes and as I thought , all my ordinary dividends from my US companies are also qualified dividends . I will pay 0 taxes on them . The downside is qualifying for this is having to live off of 105K ? per year and be happy .

Edit ! After looking at my return ( I used HR Block software ) It is hard to understand what I paid on the taxes . It calls my dividends as qualified , then puts them in the ordinary dividend line . The taxes owed do not mathematically work out as paying tax on the divs but I do not see where they are excluded . The total tax paid on the income comes to just over 10 % if I add in the divs as income even though I am in the 12% bracket . I get it that the first 19400 is at 10 % and the rest is a 12 % up to 78950 , then the rest at 22 % .
This is hard to understand with the software doing all the work lol. @Boyk1182

 

Bwahaha!

 

I live a pretty low cost area. Michigan housing is very reasonable compared to either coasts.

$105k/year is big numbers for here.

Oddly enough, the wife and I just got done tracking our expenses for the previous year.

We spent $35k and we really didn't do anything different from previous years.

Hence I got a good chuckle out of being limited to $105k.

 

Same here.
Hell my gross income for 2019 according to turbo tax was $14,400 and while my budget is tight I’m not going hungry and I’m not on assistance, I rent, I own my own truck with no note. I get by and have started squirreling away money for a secondary retirement (I’m paying into state retirement through work).

 

I’ll find out soon how this works, really hope I don’t have to pay. I should have most of my dividends as qualified because I held most of it for a while. I thought you still paid taxes on qualified dividends, just a lower rate.

 

You missed the jest of my reasons from past posts. My goal was and is to withdraw from a 401K at the max of the 12 % tax bracket each year . This is about 105K . Then pay the 12% fed tax and invest in dividend paying stocks because lower income tax brackets pay no tax on qualified dividends in the future . The money invested in the 401K would have been taxed at 28+ % while we were working so this is how the 401K was supposed to work for the working man .