Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

True. Not like I'll be retiring anytime soon anyways

 

Is that absolute said with the same confidence that you had when you said the DOW would never be over 20k?

And the same confidence that you had when you said the DOW would never stay above 20k once it went over 20k like it absolutely wouldn’t do?

While you patiently wait for the impending apocalypse and the failure of the US dollar I’ll gladly continue to invest my money and happily take the gains you’re missing out on because “the market is about to crash” going on three of four years now.

 

They can only keep the charade going for so long.

 

You are clearly misunderstanding what I’ve been concerned with.

How’s the equity and bond markets doing so far in 2018? Down.

I’m also not advising anybody to do anything, just sharing what I think CAN happen.

 

I agree with you here

 

And how has the stock market been in the past two or three years of you posting about an impending recession? Up. Way up.

How is the market compared to just before the 08/09 recession? Up. Way up.

So like your own post said, trying to time the market is a dumb idea. Even if you put all of your money in the market immediately before the floor fell out, you’d be far farrrrr ahead of where you would’ve been had you kept that money out of the market. Buying in and then dollar cost averaging down when the market does correct, will outperform trying to pull your money out right before it drops and getting back in when it bottoms out. Because like you said, you could easily miss by 20% each time.

 

didn't get the chance to buy back in before close today. Oh well.

 

Yes the market is up now (since the 08 recession). Yes the market was up just before the 08 recession. Back in 07, people had the same stance you have, that markets are not at risk, and all is honky dory. What happened the next year? Recession, and housing market fell 40-50%. I was finally able to buy a house in 09 because of it. After the 08 recession, I went heavily in equities, and did great. I am just now (past few years) understanding the 'cyclical' cycle, and indicators are pointing toward the next storm. It's only a matter of time. The U.S. is continuously delaying defaulting on it's debt, which it won't be able to forever. How long, nobody knows.

I admit, I am a very conservative investor. I am very fearful that I could loose a big portion of my 401k, and may have trouble retiring if I do not hedge myself. Many countries are stock piling PM's right now if a feverish manner. Why are they doing that? Because they realize the dollar is loosing its value and there is big efforts to not have the dollar as the world reserve currency.

I do not think the sky is going to fall. And when I say the dollar will collapse, I don't mean we will not be using green backs. We will still use them, however the purchasing power of that dollar will diminish.

 

I have done some research on dollar cost averaging vs. lump sum and lump sum is always proven to be better (Vanguard did a big study). I guess if you timed it perfectly, dollar cost averaging before a correction or recession might be good, but the point was that nobody can predict that. You will almost always end up down due to more time with your money out of the market.

 

Well sure, if you have a lump sum to put in then yes, time in the market >>>timing the market. But my point was more about people already in the market and that lots of those people would want to take out their money when a recession hits when really they should use that decrease in market value as a buying opportunity. So instead of pulling out entirely when it drops and buying back in when it rebounds, you should keep the money you have in the market, and make continued contributions throughout the downturn and rebound.

This would reduce the average cost of the equities you’re buying and as a result you’ll get back to even quicker since your average purchase price of the equity is lower than when the recession started

 

That is all true, assuming you time it right. What if you pull your money out to prepare, and the market continues to climb for a few years? You end up missing out on gains (time in the market).

My only point is, it’s impossible to predict accurately.

 

Unless you’re very near retirement you’re losing out on massive amounts of money by being overly conservative.

There has never been a negative average rate of return over a 15 year period in the history of the S&P500. And the absolute worst for a 10 year period is only an average of -3%. The Dow’s worst 10 year average is -1%.

 

I’m not suggesting to pull your money out at all? I’m actually suggesting the opposite. That you should keep your current money in, and continue to put more money in, even during a recession.

 

I think I have the same idea as you, I was replying to someone else, I thought someone was talking about a looming recession..

Apparently I meant to quote someone else, I don’t even know anymore with this thread

 

Oh okay, you might’ve just quoted the wrong post, I think we’re on the same page as well.

 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4164384-next-yield-curve-inversion-like-2008-1968

nice long article for all the factors at play.

 

Netflix ain’t lookin great. Might have to jump in and grab some if it drops more

 

square is failing me I thought I would go all in... but I'm down like 4% already. ugh

 

issuing junk bonds to whom?

 

I thought junk bonds mean the likelihood of getting paid back is very low? I don't understand why netflix isn't good for their money..

OH FFS. Square down 5%.. well now I'm down all time because I decided to throw extra money in at the worst moment. People panicking over the 10Y yield curve.