Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

I read something that someone smarter than myself deduced that this was not a manufactured virus. I don't think they manufactured it and honestly, they don't owe the world an apology for it happening. They might for lack of containment, there was a few weeks where they knew and didn't do anything, but realistically that was the first few weeks when it was a new virus and nobody really knew anything about it, you're not going to go shut down China because some people are getting sick and it could just be a dirty water supply in the region :|

Flip a coin for how it'll do tomorrow. Or even in the next hour. Right now is when I need to accept I am not smarter than bankers and computers. I shall put money into index funds (I go via betterment) and ride the wave. Need a damn snorkel right now but still just ride for the next year or so.

 

I am unapologetically anti-China. Not the people, I actually feel bad for them. Really bad for them. It is the Communist Party of China that I don't trust, like, agree with, etc..

 

I burned all mine because it had the germs on it

 

An I the only one pumping money into cruise lines and airlines? I’ve pumped cash into several other things as well, but a lot into cruise lines.

 

I am buying everything in my portfolio as much as I can. The lower the better. I don't have the balls for getting that speculative, you'll probably be rich in a few years though.

Edited for speculative not skeptical lol

 

I hope so man! I’m no professional and I don’t claim to be, but I think in 15 years it will be like the market forgot Covid19 ever even happened. I’m keeping some free cash flow in my savings, but really wish I had more to throw in the market at the moment.

 

It won't take that long. I always try to think as long as possible, so I can only be surprised when it's better than I thought. But realistically, in 3 years it will be forgotten. Maybe less.

 

Yes!! LOL!!

People who are saying this was created in china in a lab are not using the logic centers of their brain. Why would I as a nation deploy a bioweapon that kills off my adversary's old and sick over a long time? You are arguably strengthening them. Now research project that got out due to bad QC maybe. I'm still aligned with eating weird crap and nature took advantage of it.

 

You say “Speculative” but the way I’m looking at it is like this:

NCLH made over a billion last year. They can take a year off if they need to and still survive. Even more so if the U.S. Gov’t bails them out.
Also, GE filed for bankruptcy and their shares were regularly above $8-$14 a share.
If cruise lines or airlines need to file for bankruptcy then in a good market they will rebound in the middle of their bankruptcy at a higher price than they are currently at. I don’t think they will go into bankruptcy though even without a gov’t bailout.

 

you are not alone im buying heavy in airlines and cruise ships... it will bounce back. Penn national gaming as well

 

If I was in buy mode I would be going for boeing over airlines and cruise ships.

 

agreed, boeing is tied heavily into the US military/public sector so there is no way they are gonna let boeing crumble. Delta is the only airline I am adding positions to. I think American will be the first major to go bankrupt if this lasts through summer travel season.

 

American was a disaster on all fronts when the other airlines were absolutely killing it! Evreyone thinking of buying their stock just send me the money, I'll at least use it for something productive!

 

I’ve been eyeing penn national gaming. They will rebound for sure

 

Maybe I meant risky and not speculative. I have plenty of risky positions in REITs and BDCs. Some of them are down by like 80% in the last month. I think I may have just thrown a lot of money away. We'll see, I'm holding until the end.

You will seriously get rich though, airlines and cruise lines will be back, there's no question about it.

 

Just curious what everyone's thoughts are on REITs right now? They tanked hard and could be picked up for super cheap. I'm assuming they will bounce back after the virus and summer travel picks up. I dont plan on adding any reits just quite yet since everyone is avoiding offices/malls/hotels etc.

 

I'd be cautious on any office space stuff. A lot of people and companies are learning that they can indeed work from home and many/most folks can remain effective.

My company's offices keep shrinking. Even as we add people. We deploy reservable flex-desk setups and some folks come in monday/wednesdays, others come in tuesdays/thursdays, we use half the space we'd otherwise need.

 

Well I won't sell anybody my REITs, if that gives you an idea of how much I like them. They'll be back just fine, now is a great time to pick up shares. There may be some dividend cuts, but they're already high so I can live with that.

 

I am not smarter than professionals, I let betterment handle that for me for the time being. Maybe in a few years once I learn more and can study more. But you'll be able to retire at 50 if that pays off

Yeah there's talks that there was a research center right up the road from the Wuhan market, but realistically these viruses do happen, IE: SARS, MERS. Maybe it was a man made mistake, but yeah I agree. Unless the intent was a global supply chain crisis, which is possible. But, if you've ever led a team of 5 people, now try to coordinate the dozens to hundreds it would take to coordinate this, and not have one mistake, hiccup, or leak. Not gonna happen.

Oh it's more than that. Boeing gets what Boeing wants. Right now, anyone who wants to do anything for aerospace needs to have an AS9100 accreditation. Some of the rinky dink shops can get by with ISO9001, but without either, you won't do anything in aerospace. So, who runs AS9100? IAQG. IAQG? Boeing, Lockheed, FAA, US Military, and I think there's some EASA representation, I'd have to look into if airlines are in there or just the airframers. But, yeah Boeing controls a huge part of that. So not just at the financial side, from the build, manufacture, and QA side as well, Boeing can push its weight where it wants things done. I work in aerospace repairs and manufacturing now. AS9100 is not just a quality system, it's really a business system in terms of controlling your supply chain, change management, forcing management reviews, resource management, etc as well as all the QA stuff that ISO9001 flow such as PO review, control of non-conforming material, etc etc.

Summer isn't a major travel season. We see repairs slow down in the summer, there's a lot of time off with school vacations but most people drive. The travel season is November (combination of snow birds and holiday travels), through christmas holiday travels (again, includes snowbirds), and through March (spring break, everyone takes vacations warm places, etc).

Qtr1 174140
Qtr2 169591
Qtr3 160288
Qtr4 154553

https://data.transportation.gov/Aviation/International_Report_Passengers/xgub-n9bw

American won't go bankrupt. Flybe is out https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flybe and we might see some small US airlines go belly up if this does continue. Sun Country, Allegiant, Spirit, those I'd worry about. American isn't going anywhere.

 

It wasn't necessarily used against anyone outside of China. That's, in my opinion, where the logic can help come to a few possible conclusions.