Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Could be slow, but markets are leading indicators, the whip sawing of 10% gains and losses has subsided for now and most stocks are at a discount. Doesn't mean we won't see that happen again... Now there will be sectors that take a while to get back, but just like the 2008/2009, the market was back relatively quickly. I know this is different, as its a health pandemic and companies are forced to close. Most people are refraining from discretionary purchases now, that will change when this is over. Most people are creatures of habit and once back in the game will want to purchase and spend.

 

We know the toilet paper manufacturers are doing well LOL

 

I don't know if the recovery is going to be that quick. Drive past a shopping plaza and what do you see? Chili's, LA Fitness, Super Clips, Macy's, Barnes and Noble, AMC Movie Theater, and the big REIT investment groups who own all the buildings of those shopping plazas who can't collect rent from the tenants etc. All of those businesses will report zero revenue for at least 2 out of 12 months in 2020. That's a minimum decline of 1/6 of their revenue for the year so far if this thing just lasts through 4/30 and then everything just goes back to normal with everyone out and about- which it won't.

The ones who are even more fucked are the small businesses without the massive billion dollar lines of credit they can draw down on to keep afloat like those big massive retailers. Airlines will be bailed out- all the restaurants, shops, and small individual real estate owners who can't get rent are screwed.

What I'm trying to say is that industries across the board are hit hard by this, and I don't know if we are going to bounce back so quick. There is a good chance it will take us a couple of years to get our economy back to what it was. Maybe even 3 or 4 years.



Now is a good time to INVEST. Meaning long term put some money in and don't touch it for 20 to 30 years. The market is down a little bit. This isn't some once in a life time crash everyone is making it out to be. If you waited this long to invest you are a dumb ass. I have so many friends asking me about the market and thinking they are going to be millionaires from investing right now. If you aren't investing regularly you are behind the ball and buying in now isn't going to give you more gains than everyone else. The market was overbought and valuations were very high before this whole coronavirus. A lot of the sell off you saw the past few weeks is just people pocketing profits because you never really have the profit until you sell anyway right? People the past two years had so many gains they sold to pocket their profit. We are just down to normal valuations now. Better start investing now and stop trying to time the market.

 

Well good luck! I’m sure eventually they will recover. Be glad the gov’t bailed them out though. I use American Airlines when I travel; I travel a lot (platinum member), though I haven’t flown or traveled anywhere lately.

 

This is funny. How do they project sales for the next quarter? Nobody is crapping more, they just have extra tp at home. So when less people need to buy, the current demand they just saw will decline sharply. They are really just pre selling future purchases now. Which is why they resisted increasing production. Fear of sitting on an oversupply of product that takes up a lot of room.

 

Nice write up, and while no one really knows how fast we are coming back I do agree with you that people should invest regularly. The are people out there thinking they can make a home run, and that is relative too...... As its been said before "its time in the market, not timing the market" For me I just buy and hold blue chips when I think they are cheap, I don't day trade.

 

Same with cereal and soup. My shares of General Mills are probably up a bit since this started.

 

I was being sarcastic.....

 

You know groceries and firearms are having a great quarter

 

I know. That’s why I said it’s funny. They were put in a rough spot to increase supply knowing demand won’t be there shortly down the road. I’ve seen other commentary on the backend for industry that’s been shutdown, like will vacation rentals increase prices late summer or fall expecting demand to be high because everyone was just stuck at home for 2 months. Who knows how things will look in August

 

Copy, looks like I was behind the ball on that one

 

I love this thread. I’ve tried other threads on TD Ameritrade and stocktwits and the like, but it’s all just a bunch of bs that’s hard to filter through.
This thread is full of real ass people passing real ass information.

Which I could tag the starter of the group

 

If you refi, you should really try to shorten the term. Most of the interest on a mortgage is paid in the first couple of years so doing a refi back to the same length term will just result in paying even more interest. Paying an extra $100 a month will save you a ton of $$ in interest over the life of the loan and shorten the loan payoff time. We started with a 30 year and within 3 months I started doing an extra $100 principal a month (make sure you tell the mortgage company any extra goes to principal or they will just stick it in escrow and it won't help pay down the loan quicker). We refi'd to a 15 year at a lower rate and just about the same monthly payment. Did extra principal on that and we had the mortgage paid off in 19 years total. And always try to keep your loan to value ratio below 80% so you don't need PMI, that's just pissing away money that could be paid to extra principal or something else.

 

Absolutely! I pay an extra $500 on the principal every month. Fiancé tried to get me to skip for Christmas one year and I said no way. If I skip this month then it is likely to become a pattern or “not a big deal”. No way.
I pay an extra $200 on the truck every month. (I travel for work and they also pay a mileage rate so this helps with this.)

 

I think we passed the point of a zoom back up. My company just announced all salary bands take a one week unpaid leave of absence. It was (and always has been before now) bands 9 and above.

it’s a double edged sword. Real people but also (like me) real dolts. It’s good to chat financial stuff with the layman though.

the way I see it, we would have paid rent for x months if we didn’t buy when we did (likely another 12 months). So even though I’m pissing away 110/month that’s way less than I’d do the same with paying rent. So yes it wasn’t the best idea to buy with less than 80/20 but the human element of having my own house and back yard, and not paying rent as well, I’d say it’s worth it.

the only reason I’d look at a 30 is because the monthly payments are so low that if and when I need to step back due to job loss or something, I could pay a lot less than my norm. I don’t do 500 extra per month but I am paying extra.

But since there’s every chance we move soon I may skip the refi and figure out what the house is actually worth to see about cutting out pmi instead.

 

Playing Limbo with Boeing

 

I’m down 1K in 2 days but I just need to keep holding and it’ll all get better right?

 

Hold it and average down if you can. I’m down almost 10% on everything

 

set a bunch of low limit orders, hoping the market stays down for a few days.

 

Tempted today to buy but I just cannot do it yet . SPX is holding just above the 13 day moving average of 2465. Big day will be Apr. 5th when the Saudis price oil for May . They really have a hard on to bust the worlds oil market . Oil may drop to 10 a barrel ? this alone with at least 2 weeks until a peak in the virus does not bode well . I still think we will retest the low of 2180 or so . I may buy a 20 % pos. in on some MSFT / BAC today . I know most here are not traders and neither am I in my mind , I do base when to buy and sell via the charts , and S&P 2465 looks key to me .
Long term is this is just a blip but short term it is exciting .