Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Yes it started in feb

 

If you get in at those prices, my portfolio is going to be getting body slammed from the top ropes (I have CAT, MCD, JNJ).

 

I'm in the same boat as you, but if my intent is to buy low sell high, I'm fine with that too. But I agree, if you can live off the monthly dividend earnings (or yearly as spaced out), or that is a benefit, etc. then definitely a selling point.

They pay $50/month for their service + new phone. Then in two years, they are already paying 50$/mo, so hey what's 55$/month and they get the newest phone all the time?

I am at the point where I don't give a rip about my phone - even the cheapest phones on the market make calls, text, and play bluetooth music. I like the NFC type of stuff, but whatever. I'm on AT&T prepaid, myself and my wife is 75$/mo, you just have to pay up front for the phone. I currently have an iphone 7 - that does everything I need (and more!) and I can get a new one for about $150 today.

This one I actually got for free - my work phone is on a 2 year upgrade cycle, so I upgraded, got the 7, kept the SE for work, and use the 7 for my personal cell But even still - the iphone 7 does everything I need, or even want, a phone to do. I did out the math, with our plan and paying <200 for a phone (wicked easy to do) we were in the green within like 5 months.

Haven't checked CCL and NCLH. I'm scared. But might check because I might buy more

I mentioned before, I think we're trimming some fat on some companies, and cruise/air travel might be a slower recovery, but it'll still be a recovery for sure.

 

Not "like" for you getting slammed. Some of those I wanted to go lower on but they wouldn't let me. A few are just at 2016 levels, which is insane.

 

The drops from current prices, to get to your targets, would take a full blown Depression!

 

It would require the economy getting 90% shut down and few million people being out of work!!

In all seriousness, if I'm going bargan shopping I'm aiming for a BARGAN. These are setup for October, I can extend them longer out, I am not confident in a recovery.

 

Well hell, all I do is buy, so I guess I hope you’re right too.

 

So it looks like today is taking the place for Friday when the market was closed. I wonder if people had automatic sell orders scheduled for Friday not realizing it was closed for the holiday and they are all kicking in today.

 

Really I hope I'm wrong because it would be an absolute shit show, but if it does get that rough I'll be gobbling stock up.

 

I did watch an interesting video last night that proposed all the inflation the fed is pumping into the system will be contained to the stock market for now. They were saying consumer prices will only drop as people dont have any money to spend or cant spend it if they want to and companies are liquidating inventory. That would mean another equity bubble. I'm banking the other direction but it was very interesting and had me thinking alot.

 

I don't know if anyone here has heard of Avi Gilburt and his Elliott Wave market analysis. I am not sure if I agree with it, but I like to read as many points of view as I can. I read some of his stuff over the weekend, and his argument as of lately is basically that this correction started in early 2018, and is still going on. When I look at a chart, I actually agree with that. Based on the average correction time, it makes sense too that we're still in it (maybe reaching the end soon). His stuff is pretty interesting.

 

Very good point. Looks legit

 

The rest of his analysis has the S&P going up to 4,000+ in the next few years, followed by a decade (or multi-decade) bear market. I don't think anyone can predict that so I take it with a grain of salt.

 

If you go back there has been repo maket activity with the fed propping that up back in 2018. It's been slowing down for a while now.

There were a lot of articles about negative interest rates and what they mean coming out back around that time, my guess is prepping investors for that. Obviously no one thought it would plummet as fast as it did and that the pin would be popped like it was. Hence my price targets.

You cant have unlimited credit for almost 12yrs straight and not have something go sideways. That's why I slightly defend the companies buying back stock instead of saving capital or reinvesting it. Why would you? Not that that is right, but if you can get credit for a percent or less as a company, why spend you profits on that kind of investment.

That's like locking a sugar addict in a candy shop and then getting pissed when they eat all the candy.

 

Meanwhile, AMZN is just under its all-time high...

 

Makes sense!

 

I guess. It is after all, a market of stocks, more than a stock market. Good performers are being rewarded.

 

Very well could have been. I'm losing some on cruise lines (bought some more), those probably are affected by the no sail order a bit.

decade + bear market I don't foresee.

They can weather this well. Them, walmart, supermarkets, etc. Sales are probably down a bit but not a whole lot. Amazon actually might be up, they also have AWS which I can't imagine is quiet right now either!

 

Anybody pick anything good up today? Nothing has dropped as much as I was looking for. Just sitting on my hands at the moment

 

Just more. Some CCL and NCLH. Started branching out to F and HAL.

Also, my PMT is green today. Everything else is red.