Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Maybe find a nice villa from an estate sale...too soon?

 

If that's not an investor's mindset, I don't know what is. Pure logic, zero emotion. Kudos to you, there are probably some deals.

 

so what is this threads thoughts on recovery and potential second wave?

from reading last few pages doesnt seem like anyone is concerned.

I personally think we are having another market crash and I think we are gonna have another round of food in short supply.

 

I think that we are in the exact middle of the shortest recession in history (recession being defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP). I think one quarter is in the books, and most likely we'll have another. After that, the biggest recovery in history will follow (although it will just be a return to normal more than anything). Markets typically bottom before the recovery starts, so I think the bottom was March 23. No worries of a second wave, I'd be willing to bet this thing disappears within a few months.

And if none of that pans out, just hold on for 5 years, historically you'll be sitting good no matter what happens now.

 

If you have plans for a long term hold, recession is a good time to buy. Personally, my rule is to never invest money I need. We have plenty for 6 months of expenses, the rest I can invest.

Otherwise, if you're more of a swing trade person, a recession is still a time to make decent money.

 

Don’t know, don’t really care. Anything I buy for short term I’ve been selling plenty early , so no worries I’ll be caught holding the bag. and everything else is buy and hold, and it’s been added too at cheap long term prices. And if we bottom out again, I’ll buy more and continue playing with some daily and weekly trades on the next ride up.

 

I work in the food industry heavy importer and I see more food shortages .

china and japan bought a bunch of land along the Mississippi corn belt.

A lot of my farmers/vendors didnt harvest / plant and dont know what to do. Im not sure what effect it will have on the economy with veggies/meat still in tight supply
I cant imagine it being good.

As with anything if youre doing options, timing is everything, 100% this is gonna recover, my timeline is that we have another crash around december - feb as I expect closures again to happen. I dont expect full lockdowns but rolling lockdowns where ever there are major outbreaks.

 

They will not shut down at the federal level. It's not going away and I think people are more apt to power through the next spike. I was holding positions as insurance against a second wave and closed them out at pretty heavy losses...SPXS and TZA lost about 60% and got out. The market recovery is so steep that betting against it is debilitating. I'm definitely going to be more on the lookout for a round 2 dip, but they're not going to let Covid19 do this again.

 

I think youre spot on. We got caught off guard, and we will be ready winter. I do think though that doesnt mean we wont get a few 50pt swings again. #beargang

 

If we get NRGU to 50 I'll be a happy camper.

Super cheap. My friends are planning their trip next year for their honeymoon.

That's the issue - cheap travel, but there's nothing to do. Heck even beaches are closed so you can't even sit on your a$$ for a week drinking mojitos.

I think if the gubment starts to try to lock back down they'll get the big middle finger even from the reasonable folk.

 

Yes, but with investing being long term sentiment...people see now that we will get through it. That uncertainty is gone so people aren't going to abandon investments like they did March 23, 2020...Shit..you have to move the charts beyond 1 month just to see the dip now...almost at the lead of the 3 months now..This was the opportunity of a lifetime to buy stock.

 

With recessions happening on average every 10 years (I think?), this was just a part of the business cycle. I know it sounds crazy, but did COVID cause this, or was it just the catalyst (and there would have been something else if not this)? I have read strong arguments on both sides.

 

Why didnt they plant or harvest? I get what happened at the meat plants, but it's not like demand for other types of food went anywhere? I know we export alot of food overseas from the midwest, but even if that demand tanked, could it not be diverted and used here/ease any shortage? There surely are buyers for the product here in the states.

I know nothing about the food supply chain so I'm genuinely curious.

 

Put it this way..if november results in a maintaining of the present financially positive influence on the market and sentiment there will not be another shut down...If the 4 states that make the decision for us swing the other way....it will be a very interesting conundrum because they will have to pivot 180 from the entire lead up of "not enough was done" because if Biden takes the oath and he starts shutting things down it will immediately plunge us into financial uncertainty and poor sentiment...SOoooo...they probably wouldn't shut down because it would nuke their administration and put them in the immediate cross hairs to lose every mid-term seat and zero chance at re-election...OH the irony...

 

100% covid was just a catalyst. So is the recession over or just beginning? Like you mentioned earlier Is this the shortest recession in history?
Idk I feel like we still have alot of uncertainty. Have you read the schools opening procedures? Freaking madness if you have children.

 

There will be no need to shut anything down if B wins. They want to shut it down so that he wins, and if it happens, I think life will go on as normal.

 

It was going to happen anyway. Look at manufacturing numbers and trade volumes around the middle to end of 2019, those were in a recession or trending down. COVID popped it off, but all the indicators were there that 2020 was going to be rough.

 

Because of price. prices fell so hard and with uncertainty alot of them planted much less to lower their overall costs and investment.

All of them took a huge loss and many had to just disc up their fields.

Broccoli for example, net cost from mexico placed inside the usa is like 8bucks. Broccoli fell down to 4 bucks. There was no money to be made.

 

It still is - stocks are still cheap, there was a better time but now is also still a good time.

That's my thought too - this was a boulder on the edge of a cliff, it just needed something to push it. We tried what was it Dec 2018? but that didn't actually crash it. This time -- adios! So it was both. Normal withdrawal plus covid nastiness.

 

I think this is the beginning of the recession, you have business and chains starting to declare bankruptcy now and I think that will accelerate.