Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

Looks like we stalled out.

 

Just be sure to compare interest rates between the different terms. 15 year mortgages can often be a little lower rate. It may still be worthwhile going with the 30 for flexibility even if a little higher rate, just know what the cost difference is.

 

Coffee/ break...

 

I sold a small chunk of my DKNG options on Monday when it hit around $43, but am still holding all the shares ive purchased @ ~26 average. The majority of the options I hold now have expirys 2-6 months out but I bought them waaaaaay out of the money thinking online gambling would take off even if sports didnt come back as soon as anticipated. I had been tentatively planning to exercise my Jul 17 call @$25 and start writing covered calls but........

Those warrants are expiring on Friday so I might be in for a rocky time for a bit unless their casino app thats being rolled out takes off. Yay stonks!

 

Yup - 30 year are higher interest rates, but if you pay off a 30 in 10 then you end up paying less interest than a 15 in 15 for example. I might be wrong on that for some situations, but just an example. BUT if you need to take a few months to pay your 30 at the 30 levels, that's a nice break to have an option of at least. Whole buncha stuff goes into the decisions.




PS I should have dropped NRGU to buy in lower earlier this morning. Now I feel like I'll do it and just gap higher again

 

WKHS is still rising a $1 day, I'm up 45%.

 

Held workhorse for over a year hoping for this day. And of course I sold three months ago

 

Bought $1800 worth of NRGU to average down. Mostly all in, still got TRTX and UAL in my pocket

 

Nice. Under 5 yet?

 

You know, I’m not sure how to check it, the Schwab app doesn’t show it until the next day. I’m at 5.29 now, so it should be under 5

 

New CDC numbers estimate 5-8% of the U.S. population has had COVID-19. If we use the higher end at 8%, and the U.S. population of about 328 million x 8% = 26.2 million infections. Divide deaths at about 124k by 26.2 million infections and you get a death rate of about .47%.

We should not have shut down one business based on this. Very sad for America. And the're STILL running with the false narrative.

I will add, I understand in the beginning, we didn't know, so reacted accordingly. I get that. But now, with the numbers I crunched above, why would anything be closed anymore?!

 

You knew where I was going to go

Yeah, I agree now. We're seeing the spikes we saw in the northeast way back when, now happening in TX and TX said....nah....lets pause our opening. I'm at work now so I can't pull up reddit but there's a good post in one of the data subreddits that shows that early on, NY spikes when the south has jack crap. Now, NY and the northeast are going way way down, and TX is going up. Shockingly, it's spreading regionally............... BUT Now we know it's not worth locking down for.

BUT here we are... reopening in TX paused because of it
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/tex...-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-rise.html

Was planning to go down to Austin in August, but we called that off sometime last week, because we decided if the only thing we can do is...eat....not worth the trip. And, with all this hulaballoo, not planning to move in the middle of it.

BUT YOU USED THE MAX EXPOSURE AND GAVE THE BEST CASE DEATH RATE LWUIONEFLIWEUQNRCEQWIRNC (5% would be 0.76%....)

 

I had to add that at the end, because I do agree with the initial reaction (somewhat, but I won't debate that here). But now, the numbers are shaking out, and they're similar to the flu (I'm no longer a "just the flu" guy when the numbers back it up). Honestly we should be celebrating, everything open, back to normal. Stuff happens, people die, life isn't perfect, but if we're going to stay shut down for this, we better shut down for the seasonal flu every year (yes, there's vaccine, but it's less than 50% effective and not everyone gets the vaccine).

 

I sold 1300 and still have 1300. Made 7% on 1/2

 

So I heard what could be the most bizarre use of stats on the ABC news last night...They said "Texas area emergency rooms are at 90% capacity....(blah blah blah just a whole bunch of yadda yadda yadda and then the meat)....With a 20% increase in the number of patients due to covid..."
Wait...what?
So they really float around at 70% capacity normally...So with COVID they are really only up 28% on ER visits...and if their ER's were cleared out (Like what happened in the Northeast) they would be at less than 30% capacity...which is what ended up happening up north. Acres of empty hospitals...

 

We can’t really trust any numbers or estimates in the first place, but if we choose to use those numbers, realize they happened during a shutdown. So there is no way to separate them afterwards. We can’t say the shutdown was foolish, only 120k died, when we can’t know what that number would have been without the shutdown. There is a real chance that in heavily populated areas, hospitals could have had trouble keeping up with hospitalizations. All we know now is where we are, we can’t shutdown again, it won’t work. So most places hospitals have the capacity, people can be smart, and we move on. I don’t think the economy would have been unscathed without the shutdowns, it might have just been a slower longer decline. Enough People would stop traveling and going out on their own without the shutdowns. And like you said, there was no way to know in the beginning, so you make a call and you live with it. I’d argue we tried to stay on the fence, while some other countries picked a side.

 

At this point, this is all I'm arguing. We can't change the past, whether right or wrong. There are places shutting down again though, that's what gets me to post shit like this!

 

For every person like you (and me, I notice these things), there are probably 99 people panicking when they see the "90% capacity" number. And you know the media is doing that on purpose, it can't possibly be an accident.

 

I haven’t seen shutdowns again. Really? I understand delayed openings for Disney and cruises, they see there won’t be enough demand with the reported cases growing, coupled with the cost of safety measures they are obligated to add, to make it worth operating.

 

I am not entirely sure what a “shut down” is I guess, not much around me ever shut down. A lot of having to hang out at Lowe’s and Home Depot on the weekends for a few months was about the worst here. Maybe delayed openings is what it meant? That seems the same as a shut down.