Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

I’m actually holding hope for oil. I think it went in expecting bad, it got bad, but will end up better than expected.

but I’m actually thinking of Q3 sooooo q2 will probably be a disaster reporting.

 

Forward guidance will be important. What steps they are taking and where they see demand tracking. If they do like the airlines and pin everything on a vaccine, then that won’t give any real positive outlook for the next 6 months.

Certainly a big week for earnings though. Anyone watching anything specific for their own plays?

 

I see talk of more stimulus checks for some and back to work and employment incentives. Curious to see what this all will do.

I know the talk is of people not wanting to go back to work because unemployment is paying better in many cases, but there are still plenty of people that don’t yet have a job to return to. Seems as simple as the employer reporting if the job is available and if so is it the full pre covid hours or limited. Then the money could go to the people who really don’t have work available.

 

I'm actually looking to throw $500 at TECS. The 3x BEAR Tech sector...It's @$20/share...Buy 25 shares. If the bubble pops it goes to $60+ a share again...3x return on investment. I was looking to buy a call but they are SO overpriced (or market priced high because of volatility) so $500 on a call would be so out of the money there would be very little return for risk. I'm not looking to risk more than $500 on this gamble. I also purchased VXX $40 20NOV20 call. This cost $500.67. It's already been in and out of profitability in the last week as the VXX got back above $30. As I've said before this is my November election insurance policy...if anything gets sketchy volatility will fly...and if we have a sell off in the meantime I can close it and re-open after a settling.
I'm also trying to stay 20% cash at any time in the account so I can buy on flash dips...It just so weird to have to play defensive while still trying to make money offensively. I have Ford Calls right now...Just need it to pop to about $7.50 and I close them. Not being greedy anymore. I've lost a lot of money this year not taking the $ when it was there. I'm flat out telling myself "This buy is for profit. I don't care what you leave on the table..."
This change in posture is already paying off..
ABUS Sep 18 2020 5.0 Put 37.46% return in hours...
SPOT Puts 31.25% return
SPCE Aug 21 2020 23.0 Call 31.77% return....

Basically any Put/Call that hits 30% set a trailing stop. And don't get greedy....

I'm biting my nails right now on
DIS Oct 16 2020 110 Put I paid $499 for...the bid is at $415 but that has a LOT of time and I'm playing on DIS dropping $10 in price at some point over the next 60 days...If not I close the option at an obvious partial loss...But my hopeful play is for DIS to dip, close the Put and flip to a LONG call in the $125 range for about $850-$1000. I have my eye on the DIS220617C00135000 $135.00 LAST $12.60 Bid $12.00 ask $14.15. This will fall by $300-400 if my put comes close to in the money..

I guess it just helps to have a plan...

This can (will) all go up in flames though if xyz happens....(I don't yet know what xyz is, but I'll tell you when I see it)

 

Holy shit...I just had a revelation...
I'm going to buy ONE share a day of $TECS...There's no need to buy 25...I really don't think the pop is coming for some time...So I will dollar cost down as it drops...and accumulate the insurance/bet for a pop...I keep forgetting there are no more fees for trades so I don't have to buy all at once...
If it pops at any time as I am accumulating it's actually a bigger return on investment...

 

I hear you there. I’ve been holding cash for whatever might happen, still doing my regular long term adds. Still feels like it’s gonna hit the fan here again at some point. But there’s always that possibility they announce, we have a vaccine. That won’t provide a magical cure for the markets some are hoping for, but it will give a good short term jolt I’m sure. Then we will turn our focus to all the damage that lingers from this 2020 mess.

 

I do wonder how my early investing would have been had I started in the era of no fees. Certainly would have been a little more free to throw money at random stocks with much less thought. Not sure if that would have been good

 

Are you kidding me???? I still remember when it went from like $12.95 to $7.95...There are so many things (that DEFINITELY rose) that were sub $5 a share that I never touched because the expense of acquisition was such a major dent in the return...

 

I have been in this boat and missed out on some good returns. Once I am able to take some risks again, I need to compartmentalize my "fed bad" philosophy and run with the herd to make some $$$ before it all goes to shit and this house of cards eventually falls down.

 

Yep, at some point you have to ignore logic and reason and make some money in whatever this market is. I’m just not wading into the water too deep for too long. I hate when the tide goes out and I’m standing there naked getting laughed at.

Adding to what I’m long in is different, as it’s mostly all a discount from what my avg. cost is.

 

Personal ethics aside, Im curious what everyones thoughts on more states legalizing marijuana to recoup lost revenues due to Covid? I thought states would already be looking to do that before Covid hit with more and more revenue data coming from the states that have already legalized recreational sales/use.

 

I’m pretty sure this and sports betting we’re going to be difficult revenue streams for states to ignore. Along with growing social acceptance for both, seemed like it was inevitable. I imagine many states will continue to pass legislation over the next few years.

 

Hope it isn’t too political but....cannabis is still illegal at a federal level. It’s an issue because business owners can’t use banks (at least banks which have federal backing). So it’s all cash, which is sketchy.

I think either of the two main candidates (no names even....) are both likely to maintain it being illegal at a federal level for the next 4 years. And after that, we’ll see. I don’t foresee that being an agenda topic of the likely candidate, and sure as hell isnt on the docket of the other (if you get what I mean).

so I think during the next presidential term, we will see more states legalize it at more levels (medical, recreational) but I don’t see federal legality happening during that stretch.

once it’s legalized, as far as investing, I’m not touching it. Same as draft kings right now. You have a whole “new” industry (it’s new to being an industry). Plus new companies. Who knows if they’re under good management or not, and who knows if in 2 years they’ll be the top or been pushed out by competitors. Short term bets at most for the devils lettuce from me.


Futures up a smidge. I think people are optimistic about earnings this week. I think it’ll be a 50 50 shot for all the earnings being released. Unfortunately I don’t know who will be the good and the bad

 

If we're getting another round of stimulus checks I'm definitely buying a share of amaz0n...
Earnings are 7/30 and I've never seen more of their trucks out than the last 3 months...

 

Those new companies...like that little book dealer trading at $10 a share in the early 2000's....

 

While pot is still a class 1 controlled substance via the CSA federally the IRS still taxes revenue from it in states where it's legal. The owners of such businesses have real business licenses, use real banks, pay real employees and pay real state and federal tax. There's been a bill in the House since last year to remove pot from the federal CSA.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/1120?overview=closed

 

Glad I bought 200 shares back then. Oh wait. I was sold on Ask Jeeves being the future

 

I don’t know why I didn’t buy into ups and fedex back before the spiked. Like wtf was I thinking, that they would be slow??? Gah. Missed that opportunity.

there have been so many bills before Congress.

also

https://www.westword.com/marijuana/marijuana-dispensaries-are-still-cash-only-businesses-11353647

so yeah maybe a local CU might be game but, Bank of America ( )might still be iffy.

there’s still just a lot of a growing industry. There’s a lot of risk (and a lot of reward) with investing in the pot shops. For me, not worth the risk right now. I think we’re making baby steps in the right direction but until POTUS drives a national recreational legalization, or congress, it’s still going to be an iffy sketchy setup.

the irs doesn’t care. The whole al Capone thing etc. don’t mess with the IRS

 

I was in HEMP https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HEMP?p=HEMP for a while...never went anywhere but down....
I bought it 6/2015 when it hit $0.10...and then one month later it reverse split...AND I got nailed with a $29 reorganization fee...I got out at a reverse split $0.03...so a loss of 70% plus that fee...and now it's at $0.005...thanks for nothing hemp!

 

Might be the right time to buy