Investment BS Thread - Stocks/Futures/Mutual Funds/Bonds/Commodities/Options/ETFs/401ks/Etc

401k contributions vs market volatility last 8 months

 

2 year window showing last 12 months contributions

 

That sucks but look back in 10 years and it won’t even matter.

 

Why are you worried about an 8 month window in your 401k which you likely won’t be drawing from for decades?

It seems like you are not comfortable seeing large swings in your portfolio value which may indicate you’re taking on more risk than you should be.

 

We will see.

 

Notice how the trend line FOLLOWS the market....thus proving very precisely that people can't TIME it. It proves that they REACT to it, which means it's already lost. Put money in, standby and DONT watch. It won't matter until you're near life expectancy. Seriously.

 

I never said I was using moving averages to time the market... that's dumb.

 

One of the most convincing cases of the impossibility of timing .

https://institutional.fidelity.com/...managing-the-ups-and-downs-of-the-market.html

Seriously, try to PICK 5 days to make sure you're in the market out of 35 years. Oh,and some of those "best days" follow bad times which are essential to the portfolio....and watching the trend line, that's about when people have pulled out. So....can I rest my case now ? Please don't panic. Standby . Go for a drive in the Taco and forget about the market!!!

 

Wasn't assuming you were using moving averages. But this is an averages chart showing people react . Not like people move in and out in front of the ups and downs. I'm just saying I look at this stuff all day, it's what I know. And chasing or timing is a roll of dice that rarely lands. Educating my clients with math and statistics is how we've built the brand. So with that,. Tip of the hat and good luck.

 

I wish I could like this more than once, everyone needs to see it. I found this a while back and I was immediately sold on “time in the market beats timing the market.”

Edit: If OP wants to dump funds into the market at a drawdown, that’s not a bad thing if he leaves it alone after that. It’s just a good time to get in. But trying to time ins and outs, that’s never going to work well.

 

Too predictable. 1 minute candles.

 

Today might be the biggest positive to negative swing my portfolio has ever taken in such a short time haha

This is a time when bad news is bad, and good news is bad. We are heading down, it didn’t matter what the Fed said today.

 

I guess the market thought they would hold rates? I mean idk what they're smoking, if Powell isn't going to budge on holding all year then he's not going to do it now. I would honestly be surprised if he sticks to his "2 hikes in 2019", I bet he'll revise it going forward, depending on the level of market correction that occurs.

 

I think the market knew what the fed would say today. I read an article on CNBC that predicted it long before the conference.

I have been watching companies tank on good earnings reports. I just think anything will be taken as bad news until we get down to where we need to be.

The opposite seems to happen when the market is going up, all of the news is looked at in a positive way.

You could say: “2 more hikes next year, that is horrible!” or “The fed lowered their planned hikes to 2, that’s great!”

Same news, a huge difference in sentiment.

I think we will go down quite a bit further, and all news between now and then will be framed as bad.

I’ll be buying all the way down!

 

Agree. 2 hikes may be seen as good news. FWIW this is one of the most gradual rates hikes in history, they're really trying hard not to break things on the way down - simply deflate some overvalued assets slowly without causing lots of defaults and mass chaos. I certainly applaud their efforts.

 

Yea they are trying to make it less bad now than more bad later. It has to happen at some point, right? I trust long-term trends so buying on the way down seems to make the most sense to me.

 

So how much farther will it go down any predictions? I think I might bump up my contributions 10% on my 401k while it's on discount. I might just wait on it to start ticking back up though

 

I have been maxed out since the beginning. I like buying these discounts.

 

2,100 - 2,200 S&P would be my guess, totally random guess of course.

Edit: I would start buying now, don’t try to time it. It may start rallying tomorrow, and you’d miss out.

 

I just have to leave this here...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRXdxiot5JM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61Q6wWu5ziY

BUY HIGH, SELL LOW!!!!!!