Space and Science BS Thread

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lQlJReZ95mA
New Shephard might be launching again in a few weeks. That’s about 9 months or so after it’s anomaly. 6 months for BO to do its own investigation and then 3 months for outside corroboration. But it still needs a reissue of FAA license though. Given that timeline as well as the lawsuit to consider do we think OFT-2 will occur a month or 2 after the pad and OLM are upgraded? Is the anomaly review process different since NS was crew certified whereas Starship is still in its early experimental stage? Maybe a bit more streamlined for Starship? “It failed and we knew it probably would so cut us some slack”. Or, “You guys really effed up by scattering your launch pad all over the preserve and breaking windows miles away!” Is there a court date for hearings yet? Would the suit even go to court before the FAA finished its investigation?

 

The lawsuit is an unknown variable. I think, especially with NASA now looking at the Starship and using it for the explanation we’ll miss the 2025 landing, there’s gonna be pressure to get the lawsuit settled. When the suit is resolved, i think your gonna see an rapid increase in the cadance of Starship launches.

It’s gonna take some time but SpaceX has experience with such things. For example:
https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1668399552771297285?s=46


John Kraus photo.

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1668418954170347521?s=46

 

That may be what happens if they’re forced to just do cryo testing and static fires on a number of SH’s before they’re given approval to resume. That hinges on success with the new pad design. Then, regardless of reusability it will be how quickly they can cycle through launches and review the data/make changes. Going from one launch right to another is something they’ll also need to work out and they can’t do that until they have more than just one ready to fly at a time. The time it takes to cryo proof, install engines, and run a static fire campaign is way too long to wait between launches in order to fill a tanker. Perfecting the launch procedure is also a critical path item since I doubt they’ll get approval for more than 5 launches per year until they prove they can do them. I think they’ll need to be operational at KSC to meet the required cadence for tankers but they’ll need that high cadence capability at both sites anyway. For that reason I’d really, really like to see progress on a second F9 crew launch facility since without it any Starship testing at KSC is a no go and I don’t know that even a fully operational Starliner would alter that. Musk had said before that they might ship rockets there which could free up space but they’d have to improve the facilities at both ports first(much bigger cranes, barge cradles for ships on their backs and bigger barges with taller cradles for boosters to clear grid fins. Or maybe they ship them upright? Any overhead power lines to clear at either end? It gets complicated so I think that was one of their off the cuff notions hamstrung by some of the same difficulties as the oil platforms.

 

All excellent points. It's gonna be a watershed year or so for SpaceX.. They're gonna need to get this thing going.

I think SLC 40 has been talked about as a second crewed launch site but SpX has also increased it's footprint at SLD 30. That would be a interesting option. In any case, 39A isn't gonna see a Starship flight until there's at least a second site.

 

Slick 40 is already in process of having the tower upgraded to crew capable.

 

I hadn’t heard it was confirmed.

From:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Canaveral_Space_Launch_Complex_40

In early 2023, SpaceX confirmed there were plans to have a crew access tower built and ready to handle crew and cargo missions by the third quarter of 2023.

 

https://youtu.be/YEXuGgRCyS0

Serenity now…

 

X is taking over 37 from ULA after Delta dies.

 

Are you talking Vandenberg or at the Cape?

 

Cape.

 

Sounds like they’re all playing musical pads at the Cape. Things never seem to happen on time but somehow they keep moving forward. Spacex moves way faster and is more visible which adds to that appearance but the other companies are still getting things done, just less publicly. Regardless of whichever HLS option had been chosen first the timeline was overly optimistic due to the lack of ready launch vehicles. Just building a descent/ascent vehicle alone would be pressing. Getting it there is an additional complexity for all of them.

 

Any nerdy whipper snappers out there looking for a job?
https://twitter.com/astro_cady/status/1668660530473496576?s=46

 

37 has the HIF, the Horizontal Integration Facility which will house 3 boosters at a time. Home to the flattest floors on earth.

 

That reminds me, I wonder how and when they’ll load cargo other than Starlink and tankers. I kinda think they’ll be building other high bay to go along with the second mega bay since though shorter the Starships have more full height work yet to do after assembly.

 

That makes 3 at the Cape now, correct?

 

3 launch pads? They have 39A, 40, and soon will have 37. They have Lz-1 which I read was being leased soon by a startup that I can't recall.

 

SpaceX is working on improving SLC 40 though?

Mega Bay 2 is for more boosters. They are in the process of demolishing the tent factories to make Starfactory as large as possible. The current Mega Bay can only stack 2 boosters at a time, despite being able to hold 4.

 

edit- I’ll have to look into slc 40, I can’t keep track of them all.
Yeah, that’s why I’m thinking they’ll add at least another high bay as well for Starship work. In the end I see more need for Starship facilities though since they’ll need more to fit out for crews and process payloads. I’d think those would be separate locations as well, possibly even separate sites to handle the different materials. HLS may be a two time contract but it has more in common with the Mars program than with Starlink or tanker versions because of the crew requirements. For HLS they might do without them but I don’t see that long term.

 

Yup, launch pads. I could have been clearer.

Lz 1 and Lz2 are on SLC 13. Some history:
https://www.spaceline.org/cape-canaveral-launch-sites/launch-complex-13-fact-sheet/

SLD 45 announced SLC 13 was being leased to:
https://twitter.com/TGMetsFan98/status/1633236123794264067?s=20

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/10lqvqw/progress_on_crew_access_tower_at_slc40/

This is from January.

I know the eventual plan is to have a "Starbase" at KSC, so I imagine we'll see some Highbays/Megabays built there on Roberts Road. Or they could use the VAB for payload integration on Starships.