Space and Science BS Thread

Quite a few more than originally stated- I believe it was 4 or so….
https://x.com/spacenews_inc/status/1725578346757582980?s=46

 

As few as 4 but Elon isn’t alone in being overly optimistic sometimes. It’s going to boil down to launch cadence vs losses in orbit and exactly how much payload ends up being. NASA projections are based on a baseline capability that has yet to be established. So are Elon’s.

 

Considering their main drive for starship is starlink, it won't take all that long to achieve 20 launches once they get that first successful launch. I doubt HLS would even be ready before that time anyways.

 

I think NASA is counting the launches just for one complete HLS mission rather than any of the current launches, Starlink launches, or even those needed to test in orbit refueling. It sounds like they’re not optimistic about the payload, cadence, or losses in orbit.

 

Starlink should allow them to test all of those. Payload obviously, and losses in orbit. We're not likely to see a real landing attempt for a significant time after it starts launching, so parking the rocket in orbit to test things like propellant losses and refueling are theoretically possible. Cadence will most likely be their biggest hurdle, since each booster takes 15X the amount of engines than blue origin has built and delivered, But they have shown they can produce them, So even though the first booster to land's engines will most likely be swapped and autopsied, that should happen quickly, and after a few landings they will most likely start reusing them since each launch gives them a good sample size. After only 3 launches they'll have 100 flight proven engines to analyze. I predict, like the launch pad rebuilding, this process is going to be faster than most think. Falcon might only have a few years left before retirement.

 

I hope this isn’t the beginning of the end…
https://x.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1725295561236943139?s=46

 

I would think the F9 could be lucrative to license out…

 

https://x.com/sciguyspace/status/1725647330341257563?s=46
Sums up the plan nicely:

https://x.com/arstechnica/status/1725648504960253955?s=46

 

I don’t see Starship taking over Crew Dragon flights to the ISS so Falcon could certainly outlast the ISS. It won’t be cheaper until it can be fully recovered reliably and it remains to be seen that a catch is a viable option let alone the best one. It’s certainly the coolest.

 

I hope this is only due to the delay in the Vulcan launch to preserve capital. Sucks to see BO getting big contracts for cardboard mock ups.

 

Blue Origin is talking about buying ULA. Maybe BO has been going so slow with things because they knew this might be a future option, and they could accelerate their production significantly. Doubt it would be a cheap deal, and would be nice the see Bezos invest a real amount into a space company.

 

I don’t think anything can accelerate their production at this point. They’re already mired in the kind of corporate slow motion that afflicts the industry combined with the promotions of an ad agency. Lots of ideas but lacking the will to risk bringing any of them to fruition.

 

Old Space + Cardboard Space =

 

Looks like they’re delaying the YT by about 10 minutes…
https://x.com/spacex/status/1725852544587727145?s=46

 

Spectacular….

 

Dope

 

Fucking Elon. Just had to to use this to promote his crypto bs instead of actually streaming the launch.

 

Polaris Program flyover yesterday:
https://x.com/polarisprogram/status/1725658312841072961?s=46
https://x.com/labpadre/status/1725664271013482946?s=46
This blows me away about how close the public can get the day before launch:
https://x.com/spacepadreisle/status/1725664319361216705?s=46
https://x.com/ajamesmccarthy/status/1725669650137063596?s=46
https://x.com/polarisprogram/status/1725667065623708142?s=46

 

Must have missed something, I didn’t see anything about crypto and watched a streaming launch live as it happened.

 

Were you watching from spacex’s youtube? Mine went from a shot of the rocket at t-4, into some presentation elon was doing about crypto trading.

Checked Nasaspace flights stream on my phone while spacex was on the tv, and saw it was underway. Pretty disappointed after watching it for a half hour with my 4 year old son, only to have the feed go into crypto promo crap.

edit- this is the link I was watching
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ldt93lkzops