Space and Science BS Thread

Twice a week is 104 launches but it boils down to is just maintaining fleet strength while ~ doubling the longevity of each booster. As you say Merlin and second stage production is already there so it’s also more or less maintaining current production. Steady work for those plants. Any extra personnel would jump at transfer to the Starship lines.

 

Guesses on the number of Starship launches next year?

I’m at 5.

 

https://x.com/airandspace/status/1733506078350942270?s=46

 

I’ll take 7

 

Of course they’ll need to apply for the extras if all are from Boca Chica but to meet goals it really needs to be even more. Even so it could be 5 from there and 2-3 from KSC.

 

You think they could ramp up KSC fast enough to support Starship launches within the year?

 

Boeing delivered the 1st lunar rover 17 months after getting awarded the contract. Here’s how NASA got it to the moon.
https://www.popsci.com/blog-network/vintage-space/lunar-rover-designing-and-unpacking-car-moon/

 

Boca Chica was finished sequentially but if they can develope a site at KSC more of the work could be concurrent and it won’t stop for testing, holidays, or weekend access to the beach.

 

I expect once pad 40 is approved for crew launches one of them(ideally 39A) will be shut down completely to non-stop the upgrades there.

 

Just saw thanks to Marcus House that the quote was in reference to flights from Vandenberg alone. Meaning that within 2 years they expect to hit 100 launches per year just from there! Booster production might remain at current levels to keep up with demand ftom both sites but 2nd stage any engine production would have to increase.

 

Theyve already got a significant amount accomplished there. The tower, the factory, etc are all well under construction and using boca chica as their template it will be finished faster than ever before. I'd say producing rocket parts by the end of the 2nd quarter and launching in the 3rd.

 

Appreciate the updates. Haven’t had much time to crooze YT lately

Also, 3 years??? Crazy…
https://x.com/alexsvanart/status/1733590092441170206?s=46

 

I’m not quite as optimistic hoping for launches 4th qtr. but even then would set them up for high cadence 2025. The ability to catch is what will really tip the scales.

 

Still no high bay or mega bay for assembly though. They poured the foundation for one but the parts went to Starbase. Facilities for cryo testing, engine install, ship static fires, etc. A lot to do even if some could be done concurrently. They could barge a few boosters and ships from Texas and use the VAB for engine install & final prep for a few launches but I doubt much more than that. If they started Monday Mega bay construction at KSC might take until August or September even with the foundation’s ready. Somehow I don’t think they could build even one complete SH from scratch there and have it flight ready before 2025. The launch infrastructure might be ready though.

 

https://x.com/spacex/status/1733846597384151427?s=46

 

No Christmas Eve Vulcan launch..
https://x.com/torybruno/status/1733907494030688486?s=46

 

That seemed like a forgone conclusion when I was there a few weeks back. I asked a couple guys if Christmas eve was realisitic, they just laughed. Like belly-aching, good joke laugh.

 

A pleasant surprise would be a surprise.

 

Neat comparison between the rover and the unmanned conterparts on Mars

 

It’d be great if there was a sizable quantity of water on the Phobos or Deimos.