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Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

Discussion in 'Stocks & Investments' started by kairo, Oct 6, 2020.

  1. Nov 8, 2020 at 6:26 AM
    #441
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    Anyone in solar will probably see some upside to it soon. I’m also debating about pot stocks. Something like 1/3 are legal now and likely we might see federal legalization. Anyone in the devils lettuce for investments? I’d consider it now, but mostly just on my monopoly account. I think oil will still go up, that’s a train that will keep on chugging. But, likely to see coal go down.

    I still regret dollar general. In driving across the country everywhere I went I could get Burger King and dollar general. They’re sweeping the country and buying up a ton of real estate. I should buy into it but it’s just too expensive for my monopoly funds.
     
    indoomitable likes this.
  2. Nov 8, 2020 at 7:17 AM
    #442
    indoomitable

    indoomitable Baby-steppin' down the stairs

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    I jumped gun on pot stocks and made a large purchase around mid 2018. Theyve pretty much tanked since then and are just starting to kind of rebound. I went in with a long term mindset but obviously didnt think they would lose value like they did.

    After covid and the shutdowns, around May I figured more states would look to legalization as a way to shore up lost revenues and figured the fed gov would likely lax their position as well so I bought quite a few Jan15 2020 calls. Sold a bunch of them recently with all the excitement...
     
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  3. Nov 8, 2020 at 7:28 AM
    #443
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    Sold. I’ll be researching more today and tomorrow and buying some soon. I have like 100 bucks to play with so it won’t be a significant investment either way.
     
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  4. Nov 8, 2020 at 7:41 AM
    #444
    Iwilltaco

    Iwilltaco Well-Known Member

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    What would make you think coal will go down?
     
  5. Nov 8, 2020 at 9:51 AM
    #445
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    I think coal is going to go down because solar and wind will go up. Maybe geothermal.
     
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  6. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:08 AM
    #446
    Iwilltaco

    Iwilltaco Well-Known Member

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    I guess if you think it’s going to magically get windier and sunnier, then sure. Don’t think those industries will just magically grow. Unless you know something I don’t. I’m invested in oil mostly, I like dinosaur juice to produce my energy
     
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  7. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:12 AM
    #447
    memario1214

    memario1214 Hotshot Offroad Moderator Vendor

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    Coal will go down long term. As plants keep converting to natural gas we'll just be using less and less of it.
     
  8. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:19 AM
    #448
    Iwilltaco

    Iwilltaco Well-Known Member

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    I guess I was thinking more short term, it’s clearly been getting less use over the years, and will eventually be out of use completely. But will be slowly fazed out over time, not the next few years, right?
     
  9. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:22 AM
    #449
    indoomitable

    indoomitable Baby-steppin' down the stairs

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    STZ has a stake in Canopy Growth, who has an agreement to buy Acreage Holdings once US Fed gov legalizes. Acreage board of directors has alot of people with connections on it.

    GW Pharma makes non-recreational products and has something on the market for epileptic patients.

    These are my main plays in the field of wacky tobacky right now. Maybe this will help with a starting point for some research
     
  10. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:28 AM
    #450
    memario1214

    memario1214 Hotshot Offroad Moderator Vendor

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    Correct. I was just saying that I don't plan on putting any long term holds into coal companies in my portfolio...
     
  11. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:44 AM
    #451
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    Right up my alley, being a power generator and seeing the rapid change in the industry.

    Personally, I don’t mind green energy but not how it’s used. As someone has stated, the wind patterns are predicted, but like solar...can be very much like a light switch in your home.

    I will touch on this a bit. I see on a daily basis between 100-4500 megawatts of wind generation and our solar portfolio is still small, but at 180 megawatts. Hydro we have 28 megawatts. The fossil fuel generation ~950 MW.

    During the day, we run FF units down low or shut them off due to the massive amounts of renewable generation that is not very reliable. I have seen in one hour 2000 MW dump off the grid due to wind generation, and with storms the solar is non-existent. We then run up fossil fuel to make up for the lost renewable generation. Well if you did the simple math in my portfolio, we don’t have enough FF generation to make up for the lost renewable. We also cannot call for emergency reserves on renewables. So out on the open market I go to purchase replacement power (if available) to make up for the lost generation. Well what if replacement power isn’t available you ask? See the rolling brown/Blackouts in CA for reference. Paying 3000.00 per MW is pretty spendy.

    What makes renewable energy so expensive is how unreliable it is and the need to back up this generation with Fossil Fuels. If people didn’t mind power going out like a third world country all the time, this wouldn’t be an issue.

    This is just a glimpse of what all goes into the marketing side of power generation. Not getting into Lambda algorithms.
     
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  12. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:44 AM
    #452
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    Thanks! I’m going to focus on the fact that I think within the next few years we’ll see recreational have an up tick. Pharma is great but that’s not going to take off when it gets legalized. If anything it would go down.
     
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  13. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:46 AM
    #453
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    geothermal is reliable. But yeah solar and wind, you’d need to have battery banks in every house, basically. On the good days you can over charge and run your stuff. In the bad days you take from the batteries. Problem is, batteries at the moment are heavy and expensive and bulky.
     
  14. Nov 8, 2020 at 10:50 AM
    #454
    theesotericone

    theesotericone Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the input.

    I'm a laymen when it comes to energy grids. In the US grid do we have any capacity to store energy or do plants spool up output on demand?
     
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  15. Nov 8, 2020 at 11:02 AM
    #455
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    Where available geothermal is very reliable.

    Having battery banks is expensive, maintenance ridden process that will most likely never pay for itself. One of our batteries (out of 30-34) costs 850.00 per unit, needs constant maintenance, and then gets recycled after 6 years. The cost of disposal will make most people pass out.

    Another new option is huge battery storage for peak power requirements. We are in the process of installing a 40MW battery. What that means is in 24 hour period, we can charge the battery up 20 MW and discharge 20 MW when needed. For as large as these units are, I don’t even wanna know what hole or where these are disposed in.

    One really bad ass renewable power option:

    https://www.yara.us/chemical-and-environmental-solutions/solar-power-molten-salt/

    Molten salt had been around since the ‘50’s, but using a reactor. Using mirrors/solar energy you can run throughout the night is pretty awesome.
     
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  16. Nov 8, 2020 at 11:04 AM
    #456
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    There are large battery storage available, but these are usually only used for peak loading (5am-7am, 4Pm-7pm).
     
  17. Nov 8, 2020 at 11:06 AM
    #457
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    Well I will check back in later. I have to go jump on my diesel Kubota and actually get some work done while the wind isn’t blowing 50+mph.
     
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  18. Nov 8, 2020 at 11:07 AM
    #458
    GarlicFarts

    GarlicFarts Bertolli Roberto

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    good point I forgot to bring that up, solar works nearly everywhere at least. Wind is usually passable everywhere. Geothermal might not be an option for some, most. And it might not make sense. One of the biggest draws for half the season up north is keeping your house warm. We’re thinking of moving to Texas. The huge draw will be keeping the house cool. I’m sure there’s a way with geothermal to do that, but it’s a lot easier to use heat to make heat.
     
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  19. Nov 8, 2020 at 11:14 AM
    #459
    theesotericone

    theesotericone Well-Known Member

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    OK. So maybe a long term play on the transition from fossil to renewable would be in the battery manufacturers.

    My line of thought is with fossil you need more power you turn the plant up by dumping in more coal or NG. With wind and solar that's not possible. What is possible is storing that energy when it exceeds demand. That would mean for every solar/wind plant that goes in you'd need X amount of storage for the grid. Batteries have a much shorter shelf life then the plants themselves so they would be the thing that gets replaced the most. I'm only one cup of coffee in so I might be way off base here. I will be looking into battery tech though.
     
  20. Nov 8, 2020 at 3:22 PM
    #460
    ColoradoTJ

    ColoradoTJ Retired cat herder Moderator

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    If you have NetFlix, check out this series with Zac Efron. Makes you think about some things.

    https://www.netflix.com/title/80230601?s=i&trkid=13747225


    The reason I suggested this series was Iceland. Very interesting on how they have evolved in moving forward in power generation.

    I’m sure TX would be a hell of a lot warmer year round than the lake effect you get now. That’s just cold.
     

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