Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

So when everybody bitches about gas stations and them selling gas too expensive and not matching the market etc. Keep in mind the shipping trap retail is now faced with. They overbought inventory. Demand is tanking and shipping rates are returning to reasonable levels. However many shipping companies were racing to get new vessels to take advantage of the spike. Now they’ll flood the market with ships and drive each other bankrupt over the next two years.

 

Holy shit. RIOT calls are printing. Where's asshat?

 

He's at Shenanigans.

 

Have an opportunity to go make a sales call at the Makers Mark distillery. I think that's probably a priority.

 

That meme basket sure acting basketty today.

 

No, sir, this is how stocks move in free and transparent markets. Very normal, very cool.

 

im just wondering how G Ham is doing these days

 

finally knocked it off the list. Solo'd the grand for my first time up yesterday via the OS route (with an accidental trip up the optional Owen chimney). 13:45 car to car, with a 30 min summit stop and 40 min of getting lost route finding. About a half mile of sheer exposure for the first half of the final push to the top lol

 

Nice! That is massive. I was down paddle boarding on Jackson lake looking up at that thing like 2 weeks ago. Cool to see it from the top. But hiking that is a big fuck no from me. I cant pack enough beer to keep me going.

 

Those sure are some rocky mountains...what are they called?

 

the Himalayas

 

The Grand Teton is the one he climbed.

 

And this is why inflation hurts everyone. Even if you have big money, assets, the fed plays the rates right... shit like this still happens. It's like taking some time off and realizing you usually still know what day of the week it is cause everyone else around is still affected by what day of the week it is

 

Eh, the big dogs (Target, Walmart) knew what they were doing, and their risk-reward numbers said take the risk, the reward is worth it.

Yeah, Target got shafted with some extra inventory - after something like 18 months of pedal to the metal, record breaking sales. They had some minor excess at the end of that, so they drew back. But they're still in a HUGE upside.



This is target. They're fine.

@TreeFortRichard all those extra ships/etc - eh. The number of ships and railcars stayed about the same, that's what our huge issue was. It wasn't getting from the warehouse down the road to your door. Our issue was the port of LA backed up, it was rail carriers backed up. Shipping (literal ships) and freight cars didn't really change, they just ran at the limits.

But what they DID expand, even though it was not in dire straits, was that fleet from warehouse to door (the Amazon delivery vans, UPS vans, etc). However, we're seeing a HUGE move toward delivery services. You kidding me - I can click some buttons and have my groceries show up at my door at a specified time, for free, or sometimes less than it would cost in gas, and saves me 2-3 hours? Yes please! (and not to mention, for those with crib midgets, not having to strap them into their rocket seats, deal with them in the store, etc).

I don't think we'll see an issue of second hand fed-ex vans flooding the market, or boats being sold left and right.

Here's an article (I hope without spin) of a bigger concern - rail strike.
https://www.investopedia.com/businesses-brace-for-rail-strike-6561088

That happens, we're in for a hurtin for 2-3 months. Both the strike and recovery time. Plus, they're already starting some of the prep (haz mat storage, etc) for that to happen.

 

I think THIS is the biggest reason every retail store looks like a wasteland ...shelves empty, inventory nowhere to be found on the floor...Because it's not making it to the floor. It goes right from the back room to a "Pick up curbside" or delivery order...
If I need anything specific...
This motor oil..
That cleaner....
I do in store pickup...Too much time wasted wandering...

 

Last time I go oil, filters, etc from Walmart I did a pickup order. Last time I went in, the oil was strewn about, NO organization, I had to hunt for the 0-20 because it was with the 5-20.

Filters were at least somewhat better organized, and walmart resells Toyota OEM, there are only 2 sizes so those stick out like a sore thumb. I rolled up, hit a button that I was in spot number 5, and I was good to go. Dude walked it out, dropped it in the bed, and left. It was like 1 bag, so it wasn't bad, but if I was doing a full grocery for a family with young kids, etc - I can ABSOLUTELY see the benefit of pickup and deliveries and the time savings. You're telling me I can save like, 5 hours a week by just clicking the family size oreos instead of dragging my 3 crib midgets there, on a Saturday morning along with EVERYONE ELSE, so I get to enjoy the weather, or time with the family? Yeah, I'll pay a 4$ delivery fee....

 

I was in Walmart on Saturday and it was pretty patchy on what was in stock. I like to look for cool hot wheels cars, and there were almost none. Lego shelves were bare.

Then we went to Dillards and it was completely stocked, but the store was almost empty.

Kohl's (which I haven't been into for a long time) has almost no mens dress clothes anymore. I guess that's demand driven from work from home.

Home Depot was fully stocked.

Not that any of this is relevant to anything

 

I had an interview back in February for my current role.

I tried on my suit a day or two before the interview. I gave myself some leeway. Turns out, I was fatter than when I bought it. Oops.

Went to walmart - where you very well used to be able to rock up, grab a (albeit crappy) suit for like, 100$. I know, I had a walmart (brand name "George" ) suit jacket. No chance. Okay, target then. Nope. Kohl's - 350$.

I wore a cardigan and a button down, got the job.

Future suit purchases will be via Amazon, I guess.

That said - since starting, my business casual is like 75% Walmart 20$ Chinos, they fit pretty damn well, and have lasted WAY more than I thought they would.

 

Wrentham Outlets...Got Calvin Klein suits on sale for like $300-400...well worth it. Looked great on my last Cruise.

 

Well done $BTC...you survived today...