Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

7th largest one day drop for the DOW

 

PPI looks like people expected CPI to look.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

CPI lags PPI - its about 90 days, in general, from production to purchase point (with some exceptions of course).

CPI is lagging because people are still buying products with june-level inputs and pricing. I think this PPI keeps us range-bound 3800-4200 SPX until a few more months go by and some clarity emerges.

Services are still inflating. Labor market remains tight.

 

Nah, its gonna hit that 3620 mark in October, and the year will finish out nrar 3900.

 

Range bound until next week when the FOMC meeting decides to 1% it. Then we tank hard. Yesterday was just a warm up.

 

You wish

 

He does wish. A 1% hike would surprise no one. Futures markets are pricing in a 1 in 3 chance already.

I think with PPI on a slight decline and the lag I mentioned earlier and the 3mo downtrend in CPI, they do 75 bps to avoid overshooting.

 

You can't price in a rate hike that high. It's gonna spook the markets.

 

Yup there is already some talk about raising a full point instead of the 75 basis points.

 

It think the contract writers can…break even is around $385. $850 for an at the money put.

 

I can't, but the market sure is.

 

I think my $3 Sept 16 BBIG calls are safe. And @theesotericone thought I was foolish

 

@theesotericone Cut bait on a few other little gamblefolio items not working out and rolled the spare parts into BBIG. Now @ 4550 shares. It's welcome to to go to zero now.

 

HKD doing a thing again

bought a share for $150 because YOLO

 

I wonder how the bag holders at $2500 are doing?

 

Their new job is pumping social media in an effort to get it back to $2500 for a break even

i put a sell order at $300 for fun

 

What's the over/under on the railroad strike? That oughta make the markets happy if we shut down all our commodities movement.

 

I suppose .5