Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

Hmmm...How far is the elk grove USPS distribution center...
Oh wow...how the hell does a postal distribution center have a 1.5 star rating...
WOW





The reviews are hilarious...apparently it's just a package theft crime syndicate...

 

Haha I used to live about 10 miles from there when I was a kid. Seemed lovely, but then again, everything does when you're 8 years old

 

so moral of the story is that no matter how hard you fight back you'll always lose in the rigged market

admirable really

 

CPI beat across the board. See you up there somewhere.

0.2% MoM for headline and Less Food/Energy, 3.0 YoY.

We are now seeing MoM readings consistently tracking 2.5-3% annual.

Fortuitous Boomertirement has kept employment hot while rates re-normalized. He got some help from demographics, but Powell looks increasingly likely to pull off that soft landing.

 

PPI and UI come in tomorrow. So does the Feds balance sheet. Wonder how much they reduced it by this month. Was $8.3T last month. Once that number falls below $7T I'll feel a lot better about the soft landing. I still think the crew is serving free drinks even though the pilots just lost both engines over the Pacific. lol

 

I’ll take the free drinks

 

To counter:

Wages have been rising, and home equity (the primary source of wealth for the bottom 4 quintiles in the US) is largely unchanged after its monster run-up during the COVID years. I think economically most employed homeowners have managed to keep pace with inflation, and I think the same is true of homeowning retirees with investments and SS checks.

The fucked group is: The usual group - the poor. Wages have improved for the low income brackets more than any other as a percentage of increase, but a 20% increase on $10/hr is still only $12/hr and absolute numbers DO matter below a certain threshold (A 200% raise on $0.50 per hour doesn't really move you anywhere). Anyone making less than $20/hr ANYWHERE in the US right now is almost certainly priced out of homeownership for the next 10-20 years or whenever supply increases (if it ever does). Anything this group might be able to afford based on DTI requirements is scooped up by...investors like us, or brokerages acting on our behalf, to leverage as an ROI asset.

But, as we know: This low income group holds less than 5% of the nation's private wealth...so when it comes to economic metrics aside from personal consumption, they're not really relevant (cold, but accurate). And their consumption tends to be inelastic, non-optional consumption (consumer staples, healthcare, housing, energy) that they can't really opt out of. So they're a stable economic non-entity.

So to summarize: I'm bullish on the soft landing and I highly recommend - I cannot stress this enough - against being poor.

 

Same.

 

it'll take a while to increase the supply of homes. no one in their right mind who refinanced in 2020-2021 is selling their home with 2.5-3% mortgage, which leaves only one avenue for new homeowners.

oddly enough there are huge neighborhoods popping up in my area and the houses are staying empty. there's a complete neighborhood of 50+ houses down the road from me that's been completed for over a year and there's 4 maybe 5 houses that are occupied. big ouch for the builders who built in the height of lumber "shortage" of 2021

 

Changing demographics make this an even more difficult problem.

People look at the numbers and go "We're underbuilding compared to population growth rates historically but the gap isn't huge!".

Yes. Butt:

Demographics are also shifting to fewer people per household. 30 years ago, say you had three families of two parents, two kids each. 12 people, 3 households.

Nowadays, that's more likely to be one family of four, two families of three (one child each), and a single mom. Same 12 people, but now 4 households. Or, two families of 3, and three childless couples, totaling 5 households for 12 people.

Materials and land are more expensive than ever. Red tape makes it hard to build. Employment in trades is declining.

I'm a massive RE bull. I think supply remains constrained and demand continues to shoot up.

 

You aren’t in your right mind and you aren’t selling either

 

exactly...lots of divorces out there as well (sorry to bring it up) that factor into that. it happens a lot more now days.

 

Absolutely. No worries on the topic. We settled 3 weeks ago. I cleaned her clock to the tune of 90% of the marital property. I'm keeping the house, 2 of the 3 cars, and all the investments.

She gets that 10% as a "fuck off" payment.

The short version is she asked what she had to give me to keep me from torching her and especially schmoopie in court. I said "sell the farm". She sold it.

The best part? Investment returns in the last 3 weeks have equaled the first 5% I had to disburse to her at settlement. I'm back to even already.

MFRN:

 

It makes it hard to build in some areas. Go out toward Boise, you can build left right and center. It's killing farms. Also, it makes it harder for me and you to build. Dev companies have departments built for that sort of BS and can figure it out. Shenanigans.

 

i'm still jealous even though my rate is 2.99

 

We've got altitude....and flaps.....

 

A+

 

Phew...
but is the box empty..
Moving Through Network

Departed USPS Regional Facility

ELK GROVE VILLAGE IL DISTRIBUTION CENTER

July 12, 2023, 4:54 am