Still think TITNC3: Return of the Iceberg was peak

TreeFortRichard · Jul 12, 2023

99TacoDriver said: ↑

it'll take a while to increase the supply of homes. no one in their right mind who refinanced in 2020-2021 is selling their home with 2.5-3% mortgage, which leaves only one avenue for new homeowners.

oddly enough there are huge neighborhoods popping up in my area and the houses are staying empty. there's a complete neighborhood of 50+ houses down the road from me that's been completed for over a year and there's 4 maybe 5 houses that are occupied. big ouch for the builders who built in the height of lumber "shortage" of 2021
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This is a tax trick. There are all these empty apartments in Worcester as they continue to build more. The use the 20% affordable housing laws and negotiated negligible property taxes for 20 years. They then let all of the non-affordable housing apartments sit empty and take that loss against gains in existing increases in other real estate ventures. Now they have a tax free vehicle for writing off profits for the next 20 years. It does nothing to help the city. But ohhh do the rich get rich.

GarlicFarts · Jul 12, 2023

99TacoDriver said: ↑

i'm still jealous even though my rate is 2.99
Click to expand...

Using my numbers, just for funsies,

Over 30 years, an extra 15k-ish in interest... I think it would take like 10 years for a refi origination fee to make that worthwhile. Really, I threw numbers in so I could make fun of you with receipts, but it backfired because you're good

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

It does nothing to help the city.
Click to expand...

Even if it did....

My town is building some newer high density housing (finally) and the town is losing their collective $&^% over there being any construction. We have a defunct golf course that can't be developed because the neighbors are putting up a huge stink and trying to force the town to take it via eminent domain, and maintain it as a golf course (that was bleeding money, which is why it was sold off....)

You'll never make everyone happy, but holy crap people. They like to complain about everything here. Everything they try to do to help the city, there's resistance to. Speed and redlight cameras? Everyone rolled over and let it happen. Add a bike lane for 200 feet that is used by 850 thousand people every year, and they drive through barricades and destroy it.... Add some high density housing, whining and moaning about traffic, "destroyed green spaces" that was a gravel pit on private property....

99TacoDriver · Jul 12, 2023

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

This is a tax trick. There are all these empty apartments in Worcester as they continue to build more. The use the 20% affordable housing laws and negotiated negligible property taxes for 20 years. They then let all of the non-affordable housing apartments sit empty and take that loss against gains in existing increases in other real estate ventures. Now they have a tax free vehicle for writing off profits for the next 20 years. It does nothing to help the city. But ohhh do the rich get rich.
Click to expand...

Damn i didnt even think about that

99TacoDriver · Jul 12, 2023

GarlicFarts said: ↑

Really, I threw numbers in so I could make fun of you with receipts, but it backfired because you're good
Click to expand...

usually it takes about 1-1.25 pts to be worth it.

i had 4.75 before the refi and since then im almost back down to the same principal amount as before the refi. (rolled closing cost into principal because fuck paying upfront)

TreeFortRichard · Jul 12, 2023

99TacoDriver said: ↑

Damn i didnt even think about that
Click to expand...

Here it is in action
The Capital group offers private equity investment opportunities with a 6-10% return...So you get all your politicians to invest in the firm and then approve their guaranteed 10% return over then next 20 years at the cost of their constituents missing out on the tax revenue needed to support the infrastructure for such a massive number of units...
https://patch.com/massachusetts/wor...worcester-tax-break-promises-affordable-units

WORCESTER, MA — The developer behind one of the largest apartment projects proposed in Worcester will seek a tax break worth over $11 million, but is also promising to include affordable units in the building.

The developer GoVenture Capital Group has received approval to build 364 units along Franklin Street where a complex of mostly empty warehouse buildings now stand. Ten percent of the total units would be set at prices affordable for local residents who earn 60 percent or less of the area median income (AMI), according to a memo sent to city council this week.

In turn, the developer would get a 15-year Tax Increment Exemption (TIE) plan, which would allow the company to forgo paying 70 percent of property taxes on average each year over the life of the plan.

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The block-sized development would mean the removal of several large, mostly vacant warehouses between Arctic and Plastic streets — close to where the former cold storage warehouse that burned in 1999 once stood. The new development would increase the value of the block from about $4.2 million to over $68 million, according to Worcester Chief Development Officer Peter Dunn.

With the TIE plan in place, the developer would pay an estimated $6.2 million in property taxes over 15 years. Without the plan, the property taxes would be about $17.5 million over 15 years.

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TIE and similar Tax Increment Financing (TIF) plans have been offered to multiple developments across Worcester in recent years, including new downtown hotels, the new Table Talk headquarters in Main South and developments near Polar Park.

"Without the requested tax relief, the development struggles to meet economic thresholds necessary to attract debt and equity investors required to fund the cost to construct the development," GoVenture Capital Group wrote in a letter to city officials.

The remaining units in the GoVenture Capital Group building not set aside as affordable would rent at market rates, meaning whatever price the developer believes the rental market can bear. Market-rate units would cost $1,900 for studios, up to $2,200 for one-bedrooms and $2,350 for two-bedroom units, according to the developer.

The development will not be subject to Worcesters still-in-the-works inclusionary zoning ordinance. If approved, the ordinance will require almost every new development in Worcester to include a share of affordable units.

The developer plans to break ground on the project as soon as this spring with completion sometime in 2025, according to documents sent to city council.
Click to expand...

Worcester: Developer gets $11.3 million tax break for Franklin Street apartments

4–5 minutes

WORCESTER - City Councilors Tuesday unanimously approved an $11.3 million tax break for the developers of a 364-unit apartment building on Franklin Street who have included affordable housing in their project.

“We wanted to make sure we were stretching as far as we could, and have a project as good to the community as we could,” city Chief Development Officer Peter Dunn said.

In addition, Dunn said developers had made modifications in response to community requests for the project. These include that the affordable units are a range of sizes from studios to two-bedrooms and that some accessible units are affordable to 60% of the area median income.

But while pleased with the outcome for this particular project, councilors stressed the need to keep “pushing the envelope” in terms of negotiating community benefits - particularly those concerning affordable housing - with developers.

“I hope as we go into the inclusionary zoning discussion, that we continue to push the envelope,” District 5 Councilor Etel Haxhiaj said in reference to affordable housing. “We want to be responding to the development needs of the community and most importantly for the people who need it most.”

District 2 Councilor Candy Mero-Carlson concurred.

“For these folks to be here tonight, and for them to have stepped up to the plate, I think that they should be commended for that - because they didn’t need to,” Mero-Carlson said. “Do we always want more? Absolutely, we always want more. Can we use more? Absolutely. But I wanted to say how much I appreciate you stepping up to the plate for us as a city.”

GoVenture Capital Group has proposed a 364-unit project on several properties totaling approximately 3.75 acres along Franklin Street and between Arctic and Plastic streets. Several former factory buildings sit at the properties, which are near the site of the 1999 Worcester Cold Storage and Warehouse Co. fire.

Inclusionary zoning
The $130-million project is not subject to the proposed but not-yet enacted inclusionary zoning policy, which would mandate developers to include affordable housing in most projects.

However, the city said that the developer has agreed to make 36 units - or 10% of the project - restricted as affordable at 60% of area median income for 15 years. In exchange, the developer will be exempt from $11.3 million in property taxes for the same time period.

Haxhiaj had made three requests of developers since the project was proposed.

First, she asked that the affordability restrictions be for 30 years rather than the planned 15 years.

Second, she requested that affordable units not be all one-bedrooms, as proposed, but rather be a mix of studio, one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments.

Finally, Haxhiaj asked that some of the accessible apartments be included as affordable.

The first request was not feasible - as Dunn said that the affordability restrictions lasted as long as the tax benefits lasted.

But developers were amenable to the other two suggestions.

Breakdown of apartments
There will still be a total of 36 apartments at 60% area median income, but they will include 14 studios, 18 one-bedroom and four two-bedroom units.

Furthermore, nine of those affordable units (with size to be determined) will be accessible. There are an additional 12 accessible units at market rate.

“We feel strongly that what we recommended is fair and balanced,” Dunn said.

Councilors applauded the effort - while also recognizing the severity of the affordable housing situation.

“We’re definitely at a point where people understand we’re at a crisis in this city,” District 4 Councilor Sarai Rivera said. “There is a crisis, and we need to make sure we are pushing the envelope every step of the way.”
Click to expand...

The same people who put the city 40-60M in the hole for polar park...
https://www.wbjournal.com/article/r...-40-60m-deficit-for-worcester-city-government

Report: Polar Park will run $40-60M deficit for Worcester city government
By Kevin Koczwara
8–10 minutes
An academic paper from the College of the Holy Cross and Kennesaw State University, written to show the flaws of using a pro forma model to economically justify the building of government-owned sports stadiums in the future, has used the $160-million Polar Park in Worcester as one of two examples of the model’s problems, saying the ballpark will saddle the city government with fiscal deficits between $40 and $60 million.

Economists Robert Baumann of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester and John Charles Bradbury of Kennesaw State University in Georgia, say in the report the pro forma models used to project the economic output of the Worcester Red Sox stadium project do not produce the kind of economic benefits and impact it touted.

“It is common for stadium supporters to over promise development that does not manifest,” says the report, Estimating the Fiscal Impact of Stadium Developments: Evaluating a Pro Forma Model, which was released Monday.

In response to the report, Andrew Zimbalist – the sports economist from Smith College in Northampton who the City of Worcester paid $80,000 as a consultant in 2018 on the stadium deal and developed the pro forma model to prove its economic viability – now says it’s possible the stadium deal won’t work out economically for the City, since much of the stadium-related residential and commercial development he based the pro forma upon has been delayed and reduced in size.

“I haven't seen any data on Worcester's finances since the stadium deal was completed,” Zimbalist told WBJ in an email. “I do know that the estimates I made were based on the completion of the mixed-use development MOUs [memorandum of understanding] that were signed with the development company and that the pandemic significantly slowed the build out. As a consequence, I would not be surprised if the financial outcome, at least so far, is worse than my model projected.”

Despite criticism of the stadium’s economic viability since the time it was announced, the City of Worcester successfully made the first three years of payments on the stadium debt without having to dip into its taxpayer-funded general fund, largely thanks to a $3-million sale of a City-owned property within the district even as government revenues within the stadium tax district were underwhelming. Since it was first proposed, the City has promised the stadium would pay for itself without the need to general taxpayer revenues from outside the stadium district.

The City’s proposed fiscal 2024 budget will make next year’s bond payments without needing to dip into general taxpayer revenues, City Manager Eric Batista told WBJ.

In response to the academic paper showing a $40-$60-million deficit over Polar Park’s lifetime, the City said the project has already begun to pay for itself from the revenue collected inside the district improvement financing (DIF) area around the ballpark.

“Revenues from the DIF are covering expenses and debt related to the ballpark,” the City Manager’s office said in a statement.

The WooSox declined to comment on the report. On Thursday, the team announced Polar Park won the annual fan Best of the Ballparks voted from Ballpark Digest.

The Holy Cross-Kennesaw report
Baumann and Bradbury’s report examines the models used to justify the construction and public funding for the minor leagues baseball stadiums in Worcester and the Atlanta Braves stadium in Cobb County, Georgia, which the report projects will create a $100-$200 million deficit.

Polar Park and Truist Park in Georgia “are not examples of successful stadium developments that generate net positive economic benefits, which provide a model for other communities to emulate,” the report says.

The Worcester and Georgia projects used similar economic models, called pro forma, written by Zimbalist. The model looked at the costs and benefits as well as the creation of additional revenue via taxes, fees, and development in the area around the stadium. In 2018, Zimbalist determined Worcester would benefit from the expansion and the project would eventually pay for itself.

“Indeed, the project promises to generate net funds to support additional city services in the areas of education, infrastructure and security,” Zimbalist wrote in a 2018 Telegram & Gazette op-ed.

What Zimbalist did not include in the study was the possibilities of shortfalls, delays, and cost overruns for construction, all of which has happened due to various factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

While the revenues collected from the DIF include items like parking fees and tax on stadium concession, the plan overwhelmingly relies upon new residential and commercial development happening in the special taxing district around the stadium. At the time Zimbalist wrote the pro forma, the main development proposal was a six-building proposal from Boston developer Madison Properties, which has since been delayed and reduced in scope. The first residential building proposed by Madison Properties was supposed to open in 2021, but is now slated to open this summer. The number of proposed hotels has been reduced from two to one. Construction on the life science building in the left field of Polar Park has been delayed multiple years, and the WooSox have taken over that area until construction begins.

While the Madison developments have been delayed, other unexpected developments have been proposed in the stadium district, which the City has said will bolster the revenues and make up for any shortfalls from the original proposal. The three most notable developments are the seven-story mixed-use building The Cove and the 83-unit Table Talk Lofts, both of which are under construction, along with the newly proposed 58-unit apartment complex on Green Street.

While Zimbalist is not surprised that delays to construction and construction costs were higher than expected and have led to a supposed deficit, Zimbalist still feels the stadium deal will likely work out.

“In the long run,” he said, “I’m not sure it won’t pan out.”

In their report, Baumann and Bradbury’s projection of a $40-$60-million loss over the lifetime of the project is based on their recalculations of Zimbalist’s pro forma model, using figures they say factor in rising construction costs, development delays, and district revenue generation. Their calculations say if the stadium cost stuck to its the original $94.5 million proposed in 2018, the loss would have been $3-$20 million.

Since the cost of the stadium rose to $132 million in January 2020, Bradbury and Baumann say the deficit for the City will be $40-$60 million.

According to the City, the final construction cost for Polar Park ended up being $160 million, which is not the number Bradbury and Baumann used in their report.

The WooSox are now in their third season playing at Polar Park, and the team finished in the top six for paid attendance among the 120 Minor League Baseball in its first two seasons. Those figures would create a combined 894,507 fans coming to the Canal District over those two years, although a Telegram & Gazette report on May 4 pointed out paid attendance is different than the number of fans who attend each game.

As Worcester city officials are steadfast in their belief the stadium will pay for itself, they also tout the ancillary economic benefits that come from fans coming to the district, as well as the extra attention a high-profile business like the Worcester Red Sox brings to the City. As part of their recruiting efforts, Worcester Chief Development Officer Peter Dunn and the Worcester Regional Chamber of Commerce have both said in separate interviews the stadium developments have attracted more developments and businesses to the city.

In their report, Baumann and Bradbury argue ancillary economic benefits like these are limited, particularly as it relates to consumer spending. Their report says consumers who spend money at the stadium is not a net-positive spend, as it instead moves money away from other businesses in the city, which is something models do not account for when looking at the economic impact of stadiums.

“Perhaps residents might value the creation of a stadium district,” the report says. “But patronizing retail shops and restaurants near the venue does not increase the total economic output within the municipality.”
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GarlicFarts · Jul 12, 2023

99TacoDriver said: ↑

usually it takes about 1-1.25 pts to be worth it.

i had 4.75 before the refi and since then im almost back down to the same principal amount as before the refi. (rolled closing cost into principal because fuck paying upfront)
Click to expand...

we did the same. But part of it was killing PMI too. 4.25 down to 2.625. Our payment went from 1109+110 PMI to 881. We were back to the same principal as before the refi in September '22, refi'd in Jan '21

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

The same people who put the city 40-60M in the hole for polar park...
Click to expand...

Yeah but you got the woo sox coming so that we can have the RI soccer league or whatever, which isn't playing here because the stadium is (shockingly, for RI) delayed.

https://www.wpri.com/news/local-new...fc-wont-play-inaugural-season-at-new-stadium/

99TacoDriver · Jul 12, 2023

GarlicFarts said: ↑

Our payment went from 1109+110 PMI to 881.
Click to expand...

Nice, that PMI dropped down to $29 for us and initially our payment went from 1385 down to 1145, but being in the great state im in.... home insurance has gone up 72% this year and our payment is now at 1226

TreeFortRichard · Jul 12, 2023

99TacoDriver said: ↑

Nice, that PMI dropped down to $29 for us and initially our payment went from 1385 down to 1145, but being in the great state im in.... home insurance has gone up 72% this year and our payment is now at 1226

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Yeah we refi'd 10 years in and I just remembered it was to get rid of PMI...saved $250/month...
I find it odd that we must have pmi to insure against those who default on their loan...the entire group pays to insure the risk..
BUT when you have tenants that are renting on state assistance...there is no insurance fund maintained by the state to cover when tenants stop paying rent and squat...They should be paying a rent PMI based on credit score like everyone else...The state could use that fund to cover the delinquent rent and then landlords wouldn't be as reticent to rent to risky credit tenants...

I repeat myself...

99TacoDriver · Jul 12, 2023

TreeFortRichard said: ↑

Yeah we refi'd 10 years in and I just remembered it was to get rid of PMI...saved $250/month...
I find it odd that we must have pmi to insure against those who default on their loan...the entire group pays to insure the risk..
BUT when you have tenants that are renting on state assistance...there is no insurance fund maintained by the state to cover when tenants stop paying rent and squat...They should be paying a rent PMI based on credit score like everyone else...The state could use that fund to cover the delinquent rent and then landlords wouldn't be as reticent to rent to risky credit tenants...

I repeat myself...
Click to expand...

Rules for thee and stuff

theesotericone · Jul 13, 2023

Breaking news. Ripple is not a security. XRP pulling up the rest of crypto with it. Fuck you gensler.

Fohu · Jul 13, 2023

What about nvda tho.

99TacoDriver · Jul 13, 2023

Fohu said: ↑

What about nvda tho.
Click to expand...

IT ONLY GOES UP

TreeFortRichard · Jul 13, 2023

TD is all fugged up..

OK...sO I rUn iT

Message persists...So I email support...

TreeFortRichard · Jul 13, 2023

Let's play opposites...
Distal Destination...

cartter469 · Jul 13, 2023

I forgot this thread existed

wen moass?

Go AAPL!

theesotericone · Jul 13, 2023

Fohu said: ↑

What about nvda tho.
Click to expand...

NVDA has made me a lot of money. This time around I haven't played because I'm waiting for a certain POS stock to get off it's ass and get me SOME of my money back. There will be another NVDA decline then run and I will for sure be playing that one. lol

99TacoDriver said: ↑

IT ONLY GOES UP
Click to expand...

Not true. It was at a low of $108 on Oct 13th. Think about that. It got hammered because of no other reason then the bear market. In 9 months it's gone 400%. lol

cartter469 said: ↑

I forgot this thread existed

wen moass?

Go AAPL!
Click to expand...

Fuck AAPL.

cartter469 · Jul 13, 2023

theesotericone said: ↑

NVDA has made me a lot of money. This time around I haven't played because I'm waiting for a certain POS stock to get off it's ass and get me SOME of my money back. There will be another NVDA decline then run and I will for sure be playing that one. lol

Not true. It was at a low of $108 on Oct 13th. Think about that. It got hammered because of no other reason then the bear market. In 9 months it's gone 400%. lol

Fuck AAPL.
Click to expand...

AAPL is a large reason that I’m hitting my goal for my investments 2 years early. Go AAPL

If NVDA would just cut in half already and go back to a semi fair evaluation I’d be buying

I just ride bikes and snowboard and let my boomer stocks do their thing

theesotericone · Jul 13, 2023

cartter469 said: ↑

AAPL is a large reason that I’m hitting my goal for my investment 2 years early. Go AAPL

If NVDA would just cut in half already and go back to a semi fair evaluation I’d be buying
Click to expand...

Start doing more research on who's chips are being used for 90% of AI, 80% of autonomous cars/trucks, about 68% of data centers and servers. NVDA is undervalued. It will surpass AAPL in market cap within 5 years. So, fuck AAPL.lol

cartter469 · Jul 13, 2023

Make it go down first. Then I’ll buy

theesotericone said: ↑

Start doing more research on who's chips are being used for 90% of AI, 80% of autonomous cars/trucks, about 68% of data centers and servers. NVDA is undervalued. It will surpass AAPL in market cap within 5 years. So, fuck AAPL.lol
Click to expand...

Iwilltaco · Jul 13, 2023

theesotericone said: ↑

Start doing more research on who's chips are being used for 90% of AI, 80% of autonomous cars/trucks, about 68% of data centers and servers. NVDA is undervalued. It will surpass AAPL in market cap within 5 years. So, fuck AAPL.lol
Click to expand...

Calling 200% for NVDA over the next 5 years? Why would you invest in anything else? Lol

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