When will the 2021/2022 Tacoma shortage really end?

I keep wondering if the reason carvana, vroom, carmax, etc are ALL offering such high prices for used 3rd gens is because THEY SOMEHOW KNOW Toyota dealers nationwide are going to continue marking up new Toyotas far above MSRP FOR the next 12+ months to come ??

So what good - financially - will it do for any of us to get a approx $35,000 check right now our 3-5 year old TRD Offroads with with about 30,000 miles when it will cost us $50,000 - $55,000 to get new 2021 or 2022 TRD Offroads?

We'll end up being slaves to new car payments for the next 5+ years to come and the managers at carvana, vroom, carmax will laugh all the way to the bank.

 

Imo people are better off selling at high prices and just throw out the ‘covid’ line.

 

Then don’t sell…

 

Hence why I bought my 1st gen for 500 bucks and did all of the work myself to get it where it is now. Fully paid off and reliable.

 

Continue marking up? I just bought mine at msrp with no “market adjustment” only had to wait 9 days for it to get delivered. Is it like it used to be? No. But not everywhere is as bad as you make it out to be.

 

We can throw some numbers at it. Using the following guesses:

before pandemic factory capacity was 24,000 a month and the demand was 20,000

pandemic reduced capacity to 16,000 a month. This induced a 4,000 per month shortage for each month of the reduced capacity.

Thus, it will take 1 month of normal capacity to make for each month of pandemic. If you use 12 months for the capacity reduction, then the shortage total is 48,000 trucks. It would take 12 months to make up that amount at the pre-pandemic capacity.

this is very simplistic obviously, but I think is within reason.

 

I believe your numbers are low. Toyota is on track to sell 280,000 Tacomas this year. Their biggest year ever.

They are selling everything they make before they hit the lot. The shortage is due to demand.

 

There’s a shortage?

 

And the demand is driving up the prices on the used ones, which further drives the demand up for new ones as everyone (including me) trades in when they wouldn’t normally have done so

 

Yeah. All of my numbers were SWAG's to get the estimate within an order of magnitude. The interesting question is how much of the current demand is "pent up" from the pandemic or new from people fearing they will miss out (aka toilet paper shortage). Either way, I don't think we'll see the end of the madness until around Q3 2022.

 

I got mine! I'm good.

 

This phenomenon isn't exclusive to Tacoma's. Pickup trucks of all brands are skyrocketing in popularity and overall supply is low. Nobody has trucks on the lot. They're all en route to the dealer and most of them are spoken for by the time they show up.

 

I am going to take advantage of it soon. Get this... my 2019 4runner ORP w 24k miles been offered 44k for it carvana and carmax. I bought for 37k. And owe zero. So I am going to cash it in, and use the money 2 fold.
1. Needs some funds for capital gains this year.

2. Put a deposit down on a Taco ordered exactly as I want. If I can still do 2021 I want Army Green MT OR DCSB with advanced tech and LED headlights. If its has to be a 2022 build same truck just in Lunar Rock.

Plus if it takes two/ three months too show I think a decent market correction will hit in fall, which will be time the truck is ready. Worst case pay MSRP for the exact truck I want, maybe get a real discount if timed right.

 

once the market starts to levels out and goes back to normal... some dealers gonna eat sh*t once they realize there stuck with there over priced vehicles...

 

This is already what 99% of people who buy new have been doing since 1919.

What’s new?

 

Try buying a 2022 Tundra, if you think Tacoma prices are high.

 

That's because their ramping up capacity back to prepandemic. Won't be 16K capacity for the rest of the year. 20K/mo demand sounds about right though

 

I'll take $20k and a new Maveric for my 2020. Drive the ford for 2~3 years, then get a new Tacoma Hybrid.

 

How in the hell did you only pay $500?