Which Tacoma do you foresee depreciating the least?

Hey guys, in lieu of buying a new 2018 Tacoma, the thought has come across my mind to see what I could find on the old craigslist used market today.

I came across a pretty nice 2012 Tacoma. Other than a small amount of surface rust on the underside and obvious indications that the bed has been "used". It was in very good shape.

The truck has 62,000 miles is a TRD Sport 4x4 Access Cab with Auto Trans. Had a 2.5" lift and was bought CPO from a nearby dealer. Guy wants $20,000 plus $1500 in taxes,

My other option is to wait for the 2018 Tacoma, get the same configuration and pay $32,500-$33,000 plus $2000-$2500 in taxes.

So the real question here is:

In your guys opinion: Will I pay more to replace/repair parts on the 2012 over 100k miles? and will I lose more money on it when I go to sell it with 160k miles in tentative year 2028, or will I lose more money on the 2018 with 100k miles when I go to sell it in 2028?

 

Get the used one, the first owner already took the biggest hit in depreciation. It will still be worth probably close to 15k with 160k miles on it.

 

Hey guys, in lieu of buying a new 2018 Tacoma, the thought has come across my mind to see what I could find on the old craigslist used market today.

I came across a pretty nice 2012 Tacoma. Other than a small amount of surface rust on the underside and obvious indications that the bed has been "used". It was in very good shape.

The truck has 62,000 miles is a TRD Sport 4x4 Access Cab with Auto Trans. Had a 2.5" lift and was bought CPO from a nearby dealer. Guy wants $20,000 plus $1500 in taxes,

My other option is to wait for the 2018 Tacoma, get the same configuration and pay $32,500-$33,000 plus $2000-$2500 in taxes.

So the real question here is:

In your guys opinion: Will I pay more to replace/repair parts on the 2012 over 100k miles? and will I lose more money on it when I go to sell it with 160k miles in tentative year 2028, or will I lose more money on the 2018 with 100k miles when I go to sell it in 2028?

 

My understanding the biggest hit is the day the new ride is driven off the lot.

 

The used one is obviously going to depreciate the least because it has already gone through its biggest depreciation hit since its 5 years old.

2007 Tacoma TRD models are selling for $15k in my area with 125k miles. So you are looking at a projected $5,000 in depreciation over the next 5 years on the 2012 model.

The 2018 model will go through more depreciation. Once it's 5 years old it will be worth about $21k. Projected from Kelley Blue Book that the 5 year residual value is 59% of the sticker price $36k for that TRD sport access cab. That's $11,000 in depreciation over 5 years.

The biggest thing is get the one that you can afford and depreciation would become less of a concern.

 

The 2012 has already taken it's new deprecation hit, so as long as you don't overpay a used vehicle will always depreciate less than a new vehicle. (There are some exceptions like collectors cars, but a Tacoma in not one of those)

 

The money you save with the 2012, would allow you quite a few mods...

 

I guess I can quote on quote afford both, I just figured that since I still have another year of college, buying a brand new truck may not be the most intelligent move. However, I don't really want to have to buy a truck twice (i.e: buy a used tacoma, then sell it in a year or two to buy a new 3rd gen, when I can just buy new now and be done with it). But that's my thought process as I am always looking to save a buck and always looking to resell the stuff I buy.

 

Have you test driven both a 3rd gen and the used 2nd gens? Which one do you like better?
Since you are planning on keeping your truck for a decade, repair costs on the new one is going to be less but the depreciation will be more because it's new.
Honestly, if you have your heart set on a 3rd gen I would look for a certified preowned 2017 model. There is a 2017 access cab model listed for $31,750 with 10k miles and you get a 100,000 mile powertrain warranty included and the certified preowned models ironically has a better interest rate. 1.9% for 60 months and 2.9% for 72 months. While new ones are advertising 3.85% from toyota motor credit at my local dealership.

The downside of purchasing a late model used Tacoma that's only 1-2 years old is that the selling price isn't much lower than a new one but you still save an extra $2k and getting a longer powertrain warranty.

 

CORRECTION, I DID THE MATH BACKWARDS INITIALLY. I ADDED ANOTHER CORRECTED POST BELOW

Estimate cost/mile to own, not cost/year. I find about 150,000 miles is the best place to sell one financially. You can usually still get 1/2 of what it cost new and spend very little on repairs. Less than 150K and you lose too much money, much more and value drops while repair costs go up.

The used one will give you 88,000 miles to get to 150,000. Cost is $21,500 and estimate $1,000 in minor repairs. If you can sell it for $15K at 150,000 miles you have $7500 in it or about 11.7 cents/mile

With taxes the new one will be about $35,000 + about another $1000 in repairs to get you to 150,000 miles. Estimate it's value later at $17,000 and you will have about $19,000 in it or about 8 cents/mile. In this case you come out much better buying new. I've run the numbers like this a lot and it can go either way, but is usually much closer. Most of the time less than 1 cent/mile.

These are just estimates, but I've seen lots of trucks with 150,000 miles go for 50% of their actual initial cost. Not sticker, but actual drive out cost. There are no guarantees on repairs and no guarantee the 3rd gens will hold the same value as older Tacoma's.

You also have to look at lower interest rates buying new vs used. Plus every time you trade you pay taxes and fees. When you buy new and keep them 150,000 miles you trade much less often than buying used and keeping them until they reach 150,000 miles. You end up paying less in taxes and fees in the long run. Long term insurance costs will be the same.

You are always taking a chance on major problems buying used. You can get a lemon buying new too, but you have a warranty. Unless you get a smoking deal most people come out better in the long run to buy new and keep it for a while. But there are deals out there and sometimes you come out better buying used.

 

Thats an excellent write up. Thank you.

Just out of curiosity where did you get $17k and $15k numbers? Do you really think a 2018 will be worth $17k with 150k miles/

 

Depreciation doesn't matter if you never plan on selling the truck.

 

I really like them both, it's a toss up I think, I just prefer saving money when I can. But I will look into the CPO 3rd gens

 

These are all educated guesses of what it will be worth after so many miles. These numbers are based off what 2nd gens with similar miles and age are selling for. These numbers are based on if the 3rd gens hold its value just as well as 2nd gens are holding their value.
Either way after keeping either one of these trucks for 10 years expect to get about 50% of their initial cost back.

 

Correction I did the math backwards. Got to thinking about it. The used truck should have come out 8.5cents/mile and the new truck 12.6 cents/mile. The used truck is the better buy this time. Sorry if I caused any confusion.

 

The problem with @Marshall R's calculation is that I assume I will drive 10k/year the 2012 Tacoma will reach 160,000 miles by 2028, and the 2018 will reach 100k miles by 2028, or 150,000 miles by 2033.

The 2018 will technically be a 2008 in 2028 or a 2004 in 2033. While the 2012 will technically be a 2002 in 2028.

So taking this into account a 2004 with 150k miles is selling for around $8000-$10000 in Ohio
While a 2002 is carrying about the same with 160k miles.

So with the 2012, if I sell in 2028 should bring in about $9000. Which equals about $13,500 into the truck in 10 years
While in 2033 the truck will sell for approximately $9000 over the course of 15 years which is about $26,000 into the truck.

Right?

 

Your math states the used one will cost the least in depreciation.
If your main priority is to minimize depreciation, it's always better to buy a used model.
Although it's great to be the original owner of a brand new vehicle, new car purchases are never a great idea financially.

If you drive the truck till its dead then of course deprecation/resale value doesn't matter at all.

 

Get the 2nd gen

 

For what its worth, my '11 just rolled over 100k miles last month. Besides normal maintenance (plugs, filters, fluids, tires), the only thing that needed replaced has been the front pads/rotors (at 70k miles). These trucks hold up really well and dont typically need a ton of things replaced/fixed.