Precious metals

Oil is based off of supply and demand, check this rig count chart:

 

Gotcha. Was talking to the old man last night and he has apparently been buying a lot of silver lately and gave me some advice.

 

I do agree the only way to buy ANY precious metal is to buy it in the most pure form you can find. The spot price will always be the spot price and ETFs can have a disconnect as they don't always hold the exact amount of bullion. There are also hidden fees and transaction costs within an ETF as well as the cost to aquire said instrument IE commission for the trade. Keep in mind the downside to the physical commodity is purchase spread / commission and delivery / transportation fees as well as security and storage. Avoid coins that have an added numismatic value as they are often grossly overpriced by up to 50%. Gold coins from the gov't or silver bars are your best bet and the only form of PM investing I would recommend.

 

Well the dollar is the safe haven for now so it is being driven up which I think is good, it just won't last because it's only backed buy oil and our military....
They have not cut 1 dollar in spending, and they are none stop money printing, that is the problem and they may have sold our gold reserves.....

a silver quarter in 1970 would buy a gallon of gas today it will buy 2 to 3 gallons of gas, and a US quarter won't get you much, because the value of the dollar has gone down and it will keep going down until they fix it......

And now we used up our silver stock piles.....

 

Great vid on money and silver......

 

I urge you to move away from inflation the growing US debt as a motive to invest in PMs. You should invest in PMs as a hedge or as a way to diversify any investment. You're better off buying ammo and MREs if you think the world will implode financially and our government will collapse.

My advice and insight provided here is simply to give you an alternative view on how to maintain your financial security, that is all.

 

The number 1 reason to buy silver is it is the best buy of any asset available to me and has the most up side....
The second reason is no 3rd party risk. fees or taxes, a market crash is coming and having real assets will weather the storm...
Last is inflation and revaluation of the dollar, which are a 100% certainty and PMs are the best protection....

My PMs are for retirement so it doesn't have to hit for a while but the next bull run in PMs is starting to set up....

I hear you, not only is silver a good insurance it is a great investment but, I still have a 401K, a fidelity account and a house...

 

I'm not a bear but a realist that believes in cycles, the stock market is fluffed up and silver is being smashed down, this will change, everything has cycles... I think the flip is starting right now.... Stocks just finished a bull run and PMs are finishing a bear run, what is a better buy????
I also understand that I can't time the market, so I'll just target the best buy and buy out the bottom of the curve...
After the crash I'll look for the next best buy.... Gold is out performing the dow on the 10 year chart.... after the next bull run the chart will make the dow look stupid.... compare the dow to GLD in google..

So right now I'm a bearish on the DOW and the dollar and bullish for hard assets mostly PMs and small business not real estate....
But if they go to QE4 which is very bad news, the market will take off again.... But that is the problem they give the big banks billions of dollars and they go buy stocks, that is not a real market....


But what is the best value today, what has the lowest bottom side risk and what is the best long term investment?
I can't find one better than silver other than having my own business......


10 chart....

 

And I raise you another refinery "fire"
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/money/business/2015/08/26/pbf-refinery-repairs/32455011/

There is no shortage of oil, but the value of the dollar will fall and our gas will go up, just like 73....

The chart I posted earlier shows the inflation of gas prices, 25 cents for almost 80 years during the gold standard...
No standard = inflation, dollar goes down in value every year....

 

Oh yeah you could raise me that fire and any other Hurricane, Alaskan pipeline burst, Arabian or African pipeline attack etc. Those are black swan events that will definitely spike the price of crude.

 

US silver inventories....










There is no price fix yet, supply is down and demand is up...... And this year they are cutting production and no new sites are being opened....

So how does the price go down???????

They are setting up a huge up side in silver.......

 

http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/fdic/fdic.html

 

Currently 100% of all gold and silver is sold, there is never a surplus or a stock pile...
A shortage is coming, unless demand goes down to match lower supply........
Demand has been going up for 10 years...
I believe demand will keep going up......

 

http://srsroccoreport.com/big-produ...n-declines-in-world-largest-silver-producers/

 

Same, I can hold too. I’m still in the green and totally sure the Dow is in a downward trend. Obviously it won’t close negative everyday, but don’t think its gonna come back to the 18’s. I’ll be surprised if it hits 17’s again.

 

Prepared to be surprised at 17,000 and shocked at 18,000 then. I'm not just giving you a counter point, I'm just teaching you what the charts say and what's going up in the market. You can find all sorts of crazy and scary graphs but true market technicals don't lie.

 

It's too hard to time these things, I think I was up 37% but I'm holding out... Worse case I break even....

This next week should be interesting, If they pump it back up or let it fall some more.....

Every day is like high drama..... If they go to QE 4 it may go up.... But the 7 year cycle is right now, Sep. 13th, so I'm not worried..... These guys love their numbers.....

 

The time to pump the market with QE and continued low interest rates are over...the stock bubble is about to burst. T bills and PM are two very safe bets, as long as the PM are readily marketable.

 

I love numbers too and can't see anyone "fixing" this market by "pumping it back up ", how would the fed do that anyway? They are out of perverbialble bullets and 50/50 on a rate hike in September.

So given that there will be no more quantitative easing when is this market crash happening? Where is the bubble in stocks? High PEs? Unsustainable growth projections? Dividends that will be cut or eliminated? Crude has traded in tandem with equities and just erased the losses in August. What happens with this commodity next?

 

I would look for a significant correction when the interest rates go up or the Chinese market takes another big hit...and in the US case, terrible P/E ratios.

Howard