COVID-19 PSA. Read this and get your head in the game

Here in the bay our city (concord) just declared a state of emergency yesterday, one of the mandates is closing preschools until may 1st among many other things.

 

I hope this changes a lot of the anti vax mindset. Truly.

 

Man, the economic fall out from this is going to be a messy ripple effect.

 

Buy low, sell high.

 

There is definitely that. I was thinking more about the small companies though. With nobody going out and spending, income is going to be way down all over, and I don't think many people or companies are ready for a hit like that.

 

True.

I have a feeling this won't last too long.

 

Bureaucracy and ignorance at its best. That is gross negligence on behalf of officials. Whatever the facts are, your nephew should broadcast them to the public via whatever means he has available. This is where professional jounalism has a clear mission.

 

We have 2 cases in the county. But I'm guessing we'll be next for the preschool part. Most of the preschool teachers aren't the kind that will go out much further than the school itself. I'll still go in Monday... If I need to it'll just be to grab my laptop with the little one in tow.

 

If come May/June the dialogue comes out as "see, we over reacted." then there will be a lot of people just quietly smiling, knowing the steps taken worked.

 

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Clearly these officials do not know what "pandemic" means. Pandemic is declared, when the ability to trace any one infection back to a single case is lost. They are likely covering up the fact they have no access to a test, and an approach I battle almost daily. Do not look for what you can't do rather what you can. They can test for Flu 'A' and Flu 'B'. If one of those comes back as positive, then he has a 'normal' flu. If those tests come back negative, and he stills has symptoms, the likelihood of COVID19 is far greater.

 

Ouch. Ours was closed yesterday because they were unable to staff to required ratios. We also had a hand foot and mouth infection show up there a couple weeks ago. We are prepared for the inevitable because we've had a little taste and the writing is on the wall. We have the good fortune to both work remotely from home offices. However, anyone with a kid know how productive that can be.

Next thought: look at how just one missing teacher can affect the daily lives of say 40 families, and probably near 80 incomes. That is viral in itself.

Next thought: single parents are going to be hammered in every way, especially if they do not have any other family or resources to assist.

Next thought: how do employers respond to employees in these situations? That will depend on many many many factors, and that is not up for debate in this thread

The point of my thoughts above is to paint a very real picture of causality and how critical it is for everyone to

FLATTEN THE CURVE RIGHT NOW. Minimize social interaction and observe all public health protocols immediately, no matter where you are or what you think.

It is not about your needs. It is about each of us doing the right, responsible thing in to protect the need of entire communities, whether geographic, economic, or otherwise.

 

My thought exactly.

Anyone seen Chernobyl?

 

#coveryourmouthnotthetruth

 

There were some comparisons on here last night's comments with the Swine Flu outbreak in 2009/2010.
Swine Flu - H1N1 had an infection rate of 1.46 on average and mortality rate of 0.03% of those infected.
COVID19 has an infection rate between 2 - 3, and a mortality rate between 3 & 4%. Infection rate means this.
If you were in a home of 4 people, and one of you contracted Swine Flu, the likelihood of you infecting someone else is 50% chance one other person in your group of 4 will contract Swine Flu, and the other 2 people should be okay. With an infection rate of 2-3, within same group of 4, at least 3 of you being sick is going to happen, and likely it will be all 4. Any infection rate greater than 2 can grow exponentially, if no measures are taken at a personal, and community level to limit the spread. Thankfully, it is not complicated to limit the rate of spread over time, but does require personal diligence to take those methods seriously.

 

The math on this does not lie. We don't need to wait for more analysis, the examples are already there. The math does not care about your 'opinion'.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters

 

Historical context to help our perspectives. Be diligent and sensible, but don't forget to live.
https://feld.com/archives/2020/03/wise-words-from-c-s-lewis-in-1948.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/14/technology/coronavirus-purell-wipes-amazon-sellers.html

 

Take the mortality rate with a grain of salt. Korea is reporting closer to 1%. Early days yet but they're further along the curve that we are.

It's still much more serious than the usual seasonal flu.

 

Time to YOLO myself on down to the donut shop.

Exactly. Thank you for the clear explanation. Numbers can hide a ton of meaning to those not familiar with how they were calculated. In a lot of things, 10% is no big deal, so why should we worry about 2-3%? This is why.

And in the same vein, this is why isolating ourselves as much as possible and limiting the spread is so important. If we can slow the infection rate of something that grows exponentially even by just a few percent, that changes the trajectory of the whole curve dramatically and can really make things easier in the long run.

 

Two blocks to the best chunky apple fritters in town.