Hurricane Florence

Brad breaks it down really well

https://www.wcnc.com/article/weathe...out-ahead-of-hurricane-florence/275-592166413

 

Updated GFS and ECMWF models are now showing it will shift south and make landfall on the NC/SC border.

 

Yeah...most people concentrate on the center line not realizing that it is projected to be anywhere in that “cone”.

Windshield wiper effect...it’ll most likely shift somewhat every update.

 

Live storm updates here, from https://www.cbsnews.com/cbsn/ Posting NC Gov office updates as they come in. Apparently big flooding concerns in Raleigh now.

 

Check out windyty.com. We use it for flight planning and it's always been relatively accurate. Use the timeline slider along the bottom of the page.

 

Yup considering this morning they had it sitting over the Outer Banks for two days before coming inland. We will have a more reliable track tomorrow.

Damn that's a badass site, thanks.

 

Severe flooding is no joke, pic courtesy of Harvey / Houston

 

Planning to head back to Ohio from Richmond, VA Thursday night... hoping I miss the storm

 

Raleigh is always bad with flooding due to all the non-permeable surfaces and it being a big city. The Neuse river is going to be terrible.

 

Just curiously I looked at where lake wheeler, lake Benson, and Sharron Harris reservoir drain off to. Lake Wheeler runs down swift creek to lake Benson and then off to Smithfield. Harris runs down to the cape fear. Plus I'm sitting on an island if it floods bad enough lol

 

We are getting out of here sometime today. This one worries me.

 

Glad you checked in Mike! Stay safe...

 

I would recommend everyone have a source of offline GPS maps. Some of us offroad/Overland types already use them but they would help those that rely on GPS incase cell towers get knocked out.

Android:
Google maps offline maps
OSMand+
Gaia

I'll let someone else speak for Apple products.

 

Will do. Thanks. Thankfully, I have tons of homeowners insurance.

 

I learned in 2014 during the rolling blackouts for 3 days, that cell towers only have backup power for 24 hours. We were on 77 headed south from OH. It is interesting living with cell power but no signal. Power also closes stores (no freezers work), restaurants (registers down, freezers down), and gas stations (no electronics can run or pump gas). Think, life like it was circa 1930.

 

Only thing I'd like to add is to pretty much ignore the Weather Channel.

Or at least turn off the sound.

Their underlying theme of major events is always 'it's a good day to die', then show Jim Cantori in logo laden rain gear.

I've found over many years and many storms that local meteorologists affiliated with national networks do a much more accurate job for your specific area.

And always look to NOAA for the major prediction factors of wind, path, etc. That's who everyone gets that data from anyway.

I am not belittling the potential impacts of this storm in any way, nor the need to prepare and/or evacuate. It's just that the Weather Channel does more to create unneeded panic than actual preparedness.

Remember, water is the prime killer. Avoid surge areas and freshwater flood areas. Wind is devastating, but you can hunker down and survive if you are in a decent structure that won't flood.

Good luck to all in the path.

 

Mikes Weather Page on FB or mikesweatherpage.com

 

It really should be everybody's go to. I agree, local forecasters do a far better job that doom and gloom weather channel folk. James Spann has excellent information on twitter as well. He's who I got that GFS model from.