Precious Metals New Thread 2.0

And not counting all the people unemployed........................

 

How are you right? You stated the fed said we were at full unemployment when the fed's mandate has nothing to do with targeting an unemployment rate.

 

PS the winner of an argument is not the one who shouts the loudest, you know, just in case you didn't know.

 

Oh no more lies, where's evidence of the contrary? Or you know, proof that they are?

 

But but but no fair! The government is lying!!!!!

 

Gotta love someone who makes a claim, gets proved wrong with actual data, and then instead of admitting they were wrong just starts screaming about something else reminds me of a toddler

 

In before the

 

Interesting read, though I don't quite agree with it. Statistics are great in that they're very easily skewed to represent really whatever you want them to.

For starters I'll ask: Where's the data that backs up your charts? What's the level of accuracy? The r^2 of the data that must have been regressed in order to output these charts?

My next question is this: What is the requirement to be included in the labor force graph, @shr133? I'll give you a hint, it's not just the willingness to work, and being of adequate age. How many people are in prison? Yup, they're part of the people not in the labor force. The military? Yup, them too. Disabled, either physically or mentally? Not counted.

Last question: What's your background when it comes to economics, statistics, investing, etc? Self taught? Google taught? PhD?

 

I will summarize my thoughts:

I do not trust the gov't, banks, or Fed.

I, like many, lost a good chunk of change during the 2008 crash. At the time, I was not studying the markets, and just left my 401k alone in many equity funds available by Fidelity. I was a sheeple. It is my belief the 2008 situation could have been avoided or lessened. Also my belief the gov't, banks, and Fed should have seen it coming, but their models are unrealistic, and banks let people take loans they couldn't afford.

Fast forward till about 2 years ago (for me). Since 2008, my 401k has grown to a modest balance, and I don't want to loose my shirt in the stock market. I also don't see any real strategies/policies/updates to financial models that the Fed has put in place to not let it happen again. In fact, based on my studies, they have just exponentially compounded the problem with more debt, more QE, and more leveraging. I started paying attention to the markets and have been trying to align myself to avoid large losses. To me, that meant diversification away from the stock market. Starting with my 401k, I moved my balance from Equities to the closest thing as a cash position, a Capital Preservation fund. I do see a major crash in the stock market coming as I do not see real growth, just manipulation by the Fed with QE. Once the crash has occurred, I hope to get back into Equities and to contribute heavily in hopes to compound my 401k.

Not trusting the banks, I am a believer that a bank holiday is a real threat. With potential for rates to turn negative, I am not too eager to pay a bank to hold my monies. I do keep most of my money in the bank as mortgage and car loan payments cannot be made in cash, but I also keep a little on hand in case there is a bank run, I won't have to worry as long as it doesn't last more than a couple months.

With such uncertainty of which way things will go, I also see situations of either deflation or hyper inflation. In the case of deflation, cash is king, therefore I do keep a healthy balance in my savings account. In the event of hyper inflation, the purchasing power of the dollar will be low, and holding physical assets (such as PM) can be a hedge against inflation in order to preserve wealth. I can't afford another house, but hope to at some point so I can use the rental income during retirement.

Some may say I am a tin foil hat wearer, I choose to think of it as being aware. Diversifying in a way that I may not get rich in any scenario, but hoping to maintain financial independence. Everybody has their thoughts and beliefs. I choose to take part in this thread because, to me, holing PM is a way to diversify. BTW, I only hold less than 10% of my portfolio in PM, but it is still very valuable in my eyes.

Lastly, it is my belief we are in a global situation never before seen or experienced, so IMO, which way the tree may fall is unknown. Everybody (banks, Fed, countries, individual citizens) is flying by the seat of their pants.

 

I agree 100%....

I had the same experience...

 

I took 4 semesters of econ when I was in school, I'm sighed up for investing news letters, self taught, trial and error in investing (I've had my lumps) worked in finance for 13 years and I live in WI.. We are very conservative(cheap) here... All my friends make upper middle class income...

When I changed jobs I left my 401K untouched from the old job in the best fund available and it only when back to where it started before I realized I need to take matters into my own hands...

Learning cycles and where we are in the cycles took the long to learn but now I get it...

PMs are going to hit hard regardless if these guys think so or not.... If the dollar goes another 40 years PMs are still going to hit... If the dollar dies... If the economy is good or bad... What happens will determine how hard they hit....

You don't need a PHD to know that 19T in debt is bad and the only way they have to pay it off is to inflate it away with money printing or not pay...
Either way PMs win... It's called financial repression...
Financial repression is a term used to describe measures sometimes used by governments to boost their coffers and/or reduce debt. These measures include the deliberate attempt to hold down interest rates to below inflation, representing a tax on savers and a transfer of benefits from lenders to borrowers.

I takes only seconds on google to see there is a problem...
Debt, gold std, fiat money, bail ins, to start.....

I think 20-30% is a good amount for PMs if you understand what's going on... You should have a monthly amount that goes towards investing so I would put the new money in PMs and start backing out of weaker positions...

PMs are protection/insurance from the GOV debt............. But because of current circumstances a good investment.

 

I'm not giving investing advice just sharing knowledge about how and why to get PMs...........

 

Rank Country EXPORTS Date of Information
1 China $2,270,000,000,000 2015 est.
2 European Union $2,259,000,000,000 2012 est.
3 United States $1,598,000,000,000 2015 est.
4 Germany $1,292,000,000,000 2015 est.
5 Japan $624,000,000,000 2015 est.
6 Korea, South $535,500,000,000 2015 est.
7 France $509,100,000,000 2015 est.
8 Hong Kong $499,400,000,000 2015 est.
9 Netherlands $488,300,000,000 2015 est.
10 Italy $454,600,000,000 2015 est.


WTO Data[edit]
This Table shows the biggest Net Exporter and Net Importer in Nominal US Dollar based on WTO Trade Balance Data.[1]

Surplus in Billion US-Dollar
Rank Country Surplus
(2011) Surplus per Capita
(2011)
1. Saudi Arabia 252.756 9105.0
2. Germany 219.938 2688.7
3. Russia 198.760
4. China 155.142
5. UAE 80.000
6. Kuwait 72.800
7. Qatar 72.000
8. Norway 67.982
9. Nigeria 64.000
10. Netherlands 63.145
11. Iran 63.000
12. Ireland 60.786
13. Kazakhstan 50.069
14. Venezuela 45.002
15. Angola 44.500
16. Singapore 43.733
17. Malaysia 39.329
18. South Korea 30.801
19. Iraq 29.300
20. Australia 27.404
21. Switzerland 26.947
22. Algeria 26.937
23. Taiwan 26.819
24. Azerbaijan 25.600
25. Indonesia 25.117
26. Oman 22.900
27. Brazil 19.169
28. Denmark 15.546
29. Belgium 15.510
30. Libya 12.500
Deficit in Billion US-Dollar
Rank Country Deficit
(2011) Deficit per Capita
(2011)
1. USA -784.775 -2518.0
2. UK -162.973
3. India -154.401
4. France -117.676
5. Turkey -105.862
6. Spain -64.691
7. Hong Kong -55.630
8. Italy -32.892
9. Japan -31.593
10. Egypt -28.375
11. Greece -27.773
12. South Africa -24.684
13. Morocco -22.950
14. Portugal -21.226
15. Poland -20.271
16. Pakistan -18.250
17. Philippines -15.968
18. Lebanon -15.086
19. Ukraine -14.134
20. Romania -13.532
21. Austria -12.408
22. Bangladesh -11.798
23. Mexico -11.391
24. Jordan -10.338
25. Canada -10.268
26. Vietnam -9.844
27. Sri Lanka -9.700
28. Israel -9.470
29. Kenya -9.026
30. Dominican Republic

 

I see you're still avoiding the questions, cool, I get it. You don't have the answer and aren't man enough to admit you're wrong, okay.

So at the very least can you explain why posting random data from 2011 is relevant to any financial discussion much less one on precious metals?

 

sub for later read.

 

They can't fake trade deficit..............
Google a newer one, it won't get better..........

 

So the US is in debt? Are you saying having debt is the be all end all? Again what's the point? We have a trade deficit.

 

It depends on what you believe...

If the dollar is the reserve currency it won't matter...

If it's not or has to share the role we won't be able to just print away the problem and export the inflation any more.

I believe the dollar is being used less and less and if there is a better alternative it will be flat out replaced.

If we loose reserve status we will have to eat our own inflation so the GOV can print away the debt....

We already know the Yuan is being added to the SDR basket and that will take away from the dollar.

Lucky for us the most the west is in worse shape than we are.

But because of our foreign policies most countries want to drop the dollar but need an alternative.

That's why we attack every country that trades outside of the dollar or tries to start a gold backed currency...

If we can take over Syria and get Iran on the dollar the Petrol Dollar may last longer.

That's why we are kissing Iran's ass, we need them to sell oil on the dollar or we are in deep shit.

 

That's the problem we are relying on the military might and the petrol dollar not exports...

If we had strong GDP and good exports it wouldn't be a problem. But we don't......

 

I believe the dollar is being used less and less and if there is a better alternative it will be flat out replaced.

How is the dollar used less and less?

That's why we attack every country that trades outside of the dollar or tries to start a gold backed currency...

WHOA! We are attacking countries based on their ability or willingness to use USD?!?

If we can take over Syria and get Iran on the dollar the Petrol Dollar may last longer

That's why we are kissing Iran ass, we need them to sell oil on the dollar or we are in deep shit.

Are you F'ing kidding me???? We NEED Iran??? Based on their ability to export oil in dollars? Wow you were just about to start making sense again.