Precious Metals New Thread 2.0

What over printing causes.......

 

If only there was more to silver demand than a single coin.....

 

https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/silver-price/silver-price-history/1971-1978/

From the end of World War II through the early 1960s, fabrication demand for silver rose sharply. The rebuilding of Europe and Japan and a worldwide movement toward electrification, housing construction and durable consumer items was responsible for this uptick. Many electrical appliances, as well as electrical generation and transmission systems, use silver, which was one of the major factors behind this extended boom in industrial silver usage. Also key was the advent of mass-market photography, which uses silver in its films and papers.

However, there was another important reason that fabricators were eagerly turning to silver during this period. The U.S. Treasury had a stockpile of silver dating from decades earlier, which it sold off in order to keep the price of silver below its “monetary value” – a number that would correspond to the increased demand and unchanging supply. In summary, the post-war period saw silver demand rise sharply, while mine production and other supplies were relatively stable.

During this transition period, the U.S. Treasury had to keep the silver market well supplied, so that the silver market would remain calm until silver had been completely withdrawn from currency. In late 1963 the Treasury resumed its silver bullion sales, as part of this effort. Over the six years between 1960 and 1965, the Treasury sold a total of 342 million ounces of silver bullion and used another 814 million ounces of silver in coinage. In total, the Treasury used 1,156,000,000 ounces of its silver reserves.

By 1971 U.S. government stocks had fallen from their 1959 peak of 2.1 billion ounces to around 170 million ounces. The U.S. government had removed silver entirely from its currency, and ceased to intervene in the silver market. Total silver supplies had reached a record 747.4 million ounces in 1965, of which 54 percent, or 400 million ounces, came from the U.S. Treasury. From that point onward, the Treasury was backing out of the silver market, and total supply declined steadily, and never has approached that 1965 record again.

Total new silver supplies fell far short of meeting these requirements. From 1971 through 1978 there was a cumulative deficit of new supply over demand of 415.8 million ounces. The silver that filled this gap came from the 620.5 million ounces of silver inventories – many held by investors – built up during the previous seven years. By becoming net sellers of silver, investors replaced the U.S. Treasury as the source of silver to make up for a major, ongoing shortage of silver.

By 1979, investors and other market participants had come to the strong conviction that the silver market was facing a severe shortage of metal, and that prices were likely to rise sharply at some point. The market had been living off of investor selling for seven years. Prices had risen from the beginning of the decade, but there were serious questions as to how much longer investors would be willing and able to continue supplying silver to fabricators, at least at the prices seen in the mid-1970s.

 

Silver did hit a peak in 1979.... what happened after that is not such a good story.

Silver is like anything else. If you want to hold it until there's a surge in price history says you can do well. You need to know when to buy and sell though. Figuring that out... good luck nailing that down to any science.

 

The fact that the shorts are up to 500-1 helps to see the light at the end of the tunnel but don't hold your breath...
But the end is much closer...

We had a gold std till 1971, that means PMs prices were fixed until 1971...
But govs still had huge reserves...
Governments sold out their silver reserves buy 2002 then they had to switch to shorting to control the silver price...
Bottom line is silver reserves are gone, so how much longer can they control the price with naked shorting???
When the west runs out of PMs they will no longer be in charge of setting the price...
That's why it's important when western countries sell their PMs reserves...
Because when they run out of inventory they won't be able to naked short the price...
That's very good news if you own PMs.......

And now Canada is out of gold... One more down.... I win again...........

It's like any investment there is a lot to understand.... So always do research before you jump....

 

Again, how do you win when a country who has been selling their gold for 40 years at a snails pace finally runs out?

 

" now Canada is out of gold " for the last decade

 

Shut up OZ he's winning.

 

I want to point out a few things here. Mainly because a few people have challenged that we, who believe in balanced investing and unbiased information, come up with a better plan then buying up large quantities of Silver.

Silver is an asset that is good for asset protection. Basically it will always be worth something because it does have uses and it does come minted in easily traceable coins. However a problem with buying up a small investment of Silver, let's say 10K, is that you have to find storage. If you store it in a bank, if the bank deposit rules allow that because many of them have a maximum value and size allowed for small investment pions like most of us, your silver is no safer than a stock. If the revaluation occurs you can bet that, much like in times of war, the USA will make it illegal to hold large quantities of precious metals. The first place they will reclaim Silver from is the banks. Bye bye investment.

Another issue is if you store it at home. I looked into it and insuring large quantities of Silver in your home is extremely expensive. I was quoted an extra $1K per year for every $10K of Silver held. That didn't include the safe to store it either. That really eats into your investment. Not to mention if, again as some have suggested here, one day Silver is worth over $500/ounce your insurance company will know exactly where it is and it won't take long for people who would willingly kill you for that Silver know where it is too.

Leaving $10K of uninsured Silver in your home that was all delivered by visible mail... you don't need me to tell you why that's a bad idea.

When people talk about using Silver for asset protection they are really talking about people who make multimillion dollar stock and bond exchanges holding silver as an liquid asset deposit (and gold, etc, etc.) The reason they hold large amounts of precious metals is to back up their trades. Basically the metal is an asset sink to allow for huge trades over a pile of paper money because it's not easy to move around, say, 10 million dollars in $100 bills without causing an issue but it is easy right now to move around the same amount of gold within vaults in the largest banks and trading houses. It's not there to gain value. It's there to prove that the investment entity has enough assets to cover it's shorts when you get into 7 or 8 digit trading volumes. For example Warren Buffet has 2 million dollars of Silver sitting in a vault at Loyd's of London right now. However he never touches the stuff, it's all locked up as a liquid asset for his trading accounts. It's not a pile of numismatic coins either. It's silver bars.

Anyways, my whole point is that if you really want to get into investing large sums of money into silver you're talking about a hard game to play with some obstacles people need to be aware of. As I've said multiple times, it's really easy and fun to play with small volumes of PM's, but if you're talking about investment sized amounts... it's pretty difficult to hold that much Silver let alone keep it. If you invest into other markets instead in a diversified approach, even events like 2008-2009 cannot hurt you. While those events wrote down billions of dollars in stocks the market recovered. If you didn't panic sell those assets are now worth double digit percentages higher than they were in 2007. Historically, playing the market with a plan from a GOOD investment consultant will net you more over time than buying up Silver and hoarding it away in your walls for the currency apocalypse.

Playing the silver market with a few dozen coin rolls is not a bad idea and should be the point of this thread. Playing in the silver market with most of your disposable retirement savings income... is not a good idea. Especially if you are buying coins that will eat up 10-20% of your investment right off the bat.

 

Thanks for the wake up call and healthy dose of reality. In an "investment" thread this is a lot more relevant than statements like:

The end of the fiat dollar is near!

China will take over the world!

The government is suppressing the price of gold!

The stock market is going to collapse!

 

Holy shit how does any of this make sense??? Every other sentence literally contradicts the prior statement.

How did you win?

 

You make some very good points......
We never make it this far because someone always has to interrupt the conversation.....

But like I keep saying PMs are part of the plan not the whole plan....
But no investment is perfect, PMs protect you from digital theft, from either our country, other countries or theft... Cyber warfare is something to take in account for future security.... Having more than 1 account is a necessity.....
3rd party risk is also of concern, no one actually owns stocks, you have a promise that you have stocks... To own a real physical stock is 2-4 times the stock price....

PMs are real and you own them 100% with no title, no tax and no restrictions, but now you have to worry about physical security........
I don't believe in paying for vault services, the whole point of PMs is to physically own it with no 3rd party risk.
It is now illegal to store PMs or cash in a safety deposit box, so you can't keep it at the bank and you don't want to.
Storing it will be a problem, you need to protect from theft, fire, tornado, flooding ect...
You will need to have a prepper mentality to address storing...
Insurance is crazy so you probably won't have ins....
Good news is natural disasters can't destroy PMs and they can't be stolen with a keyboard, some has to physically steal them.

For buying PMs I recommend going to you local coin dealer and paying in cash to stay off the radar.
But so few Americans own PMs that the gov is not going to waste their time looking for PMs.

The bottom line are there are some fears with PMs and some old school beliefs that are just out dated.
Once you start getting over 200 oz there will be some physical security concerns to worry about.
When PMs hit that's when the real issues will come up....
Right now no body knows or cares about a $20 coin, but when they finally hit a lot more people will start to realize what PMs are and what they are worth and the risk of theft will be a big concern.
For security I would not just tell people that you have PMs at home or were ever you keep them.

PMs aren't perfect but neither is owning a house and we all have one of those...

While we are on this topic, never tell police if you are carrying cash or PMs for any reason and don't agree to any search...
In some areas they seize all assets and you have to prove they are legal. Never volunteer information. Be smart.

Civil forfeiture in the United States, sometimes called civil judicial forfeiture or occasionally civil seizure, is a controversial legal process in which law enforcement officers take assets from persons suspected of involvement with crime or illegal activity without necessarily charging the owners with wrongdoing.

 

So if Physical scares you you could look at PMs stocks now, I think we are past the bottom.
I don't like SLV or GLD ETFs because they may not have the metal to back up the shares but they are the easiest exposure to PMs.
There are also the mining stocks and royalty companies like SLV and FNV.
Right now you can almost throw a dart at PMs stocks and win but I would stick to the bigger companies.
Some people will make tons on the right small miners if they don't go under before the price hits.
So do your research.

 

But if being "bailed in" bothers you, you know what to do, buy some physical insurance....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...ned-cyprus-bail-model-coming-country-near-you

 

Got a chance to listen to Janet Yellen today and coincidentally she was talking about unemployment.
She basically said exactly what I've been saying.
She said we are at 4.9 and our goal is 4.8 but that may not be an accurate indicator of the true job market because of a few factors like forced part time employment and labor participation rate...
So it's not that the Fed doesn't tell us or hint to what's going on, no one listens...
It's really a loose loose for her, she has to project a positive outlook no matter what or people will freak out and say the world is ending like jeykll keeps doing.

 

Are you really insinuating that I'm claiming the world is ending? That's hilarious coming from the biggest fear monger this forum has ever seen with quotes like "Fiat currency is failing, end of the petrol dollar! Canada and the west is forced to liquidate their gold while simultaneously depressing the prices! Buy silver, stock up on gold before China takes over the world with the Yuan!"

Stevie Stevie Stevie, you're so funny.

 

This is a good pod cast about PMs..
Silver manipulation starting with selling opium to China
Buffets Hero, His dad..
Allen Greenspan being a gold bug..
Using Fiat money to crash the system to get back to a Gold Std..
Banks in worse shape then 2008..
Junk silver selling for huge premiums.. 30-40% over eagles not spot, so close to 100% premiums..
US untapped gold reserves and oil reserves..
The fed teaching about having a Gold Std..
Gold backed dollar..
The flooding of DTCC vault and 300 million uncleared trades every day. Seed & Co..

 

I thought you would like that....

 

Are you drunk or just rambling for fun? Maybe just checking to see who's still paying attention to you?

 

I've got to give you some shit...
We don't agree on any of this...
But I'm not saying it's the end of the world it's just a storm and we need to get ready..
PMs are still a good trade if things are good they just wouldn't go up as high..
Prepare for the worst or just trade commodities either way I know all about PMs...
I just believe the Ins factor is the most important reason for physical PMs...

Going to work on my other PM, 2010 Tacoma.........