Precious Metals New Thread 2.0

Even if they raise rates by a quarter of a percent, that won't do anything. It's a joke really.

 

WOW, looks like they did the .25 rate increase, I'm shocked, I know rates need to go to normal, but I just know they need to keep them at 0...
This is complete nonsense, they are going to have to go back to 0 or cut spending....
We'll this should buy them a few months and take the eyes off unlimited money printing.....

Next excuse, "rate hike slowed the economy"

 

Not arguing, just an article. Agree, disagree, or whatever it's good to hear both sides.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-yellen-interest-rate-rise-1.3347112

 

Anyone considering PMs should look at dollar cost averaging considering the very poor performance and the current strengthening dollar. I look for PMs to continue to be under pressure going forward.

 

I look at it the complete opposite way.

With the fed's plan to [possibly] slowly increase interest rates, that will make it harder and harder for them to pay off national debt. With extreme money printing and no ability to pay down debt, IMO, the dollar will lose it's purchasing power (inflation). Yes PM's are going down right now, which means it is time to buy. To gain a long term perspective, need to consider what the fed's actions will do in the long run.

 

Normally I'd agree but with Europe halfway through their monetary easing I'd say the dollar has a good way to go still. If Europe was healthy then I'd agree with your assessment but until Europe tightens I see the dollar maintaining it's strength for the foreseeable future.

 

BTW I think it's fair to mention that OP talks about accumulating PM's as wealth protection, and not buying and selling (both, not just buying) on a regular basis so opinions may vary just based on that fact. If you buy and sell a lot then waiting for even lower prices due to a high dollar may be a good plan. However, if you are looking at buying a set amount of silver steadily over a certain time period then now would be a good time to buy IF you are using that Silver to protect yourself versus turn a realistic quantitative gain.

 

spot on Sterdog

 

Correct, I'm talking about buying out the bottom, steady buying over time to cost average down and selling only after the 2nd bull run...
Physical prices won't go much lower, so buy the dips to maximize the amount of PMs you can get... You can't buy and sell physical on short term because of the premiums, and premiums are high right now...

Buying the right coins help, I'm up 20-30% on my coins from last year.... But not time to sell, the time is to buy....

This system could crack tomorrow or go 15 more years... But everyone knows time is limited and with the market topped out it's a good time to start buying into the next trend... So far not costing me anything and I have a very safe investment / wealth preservation.....

The republicans won't save us they are part of the problem, unlimited spending and unlimited printing against our fixed incomes...

The dollar is very strong now, so convert it into good hard assets...

 

Yeah I thought they would wuss out, but they are on full BS mode.......

So I'm wrong on that for now, but the book is far from over.....

The bad news will keep coming and it's not my fault, so don't get mad at me....

The 2 biggest killers of fiat currencies are too much debt and too many wars both = too much currency printing....

100% of all fiat currencies fail, that's history not opinion....

The oldest fiat currency in the world is the petrol dollar, 42 years old.... The life cycle is 30-50 years....

Congress Passes $1.8 Trillion Spending Measure

Pentagon may send more U.S. troops to Syria

 

What not to get......
Don't buy holiday coins ect, They are good at putting sentimental things on coins to raise the price, but that won't raise the value...
This coin sell for $23 but if you sell it you will be lucky to get spot if you sell it...... a 40% loss.........
So if you're new to PMs stick to the cheapest rounds you can find or Eagles and Maples.....

 

So, I recommend still buying PMs monthly, just have a set monthly amount.... if that's 1 coin or 50....
You need to be putting some of your money into real assets to protect yourself....
You can see from the chart the dow is down 1.5%, PMs down 9%...
The difference is PMs are on the bottom about to go up, but stocks are at the top about to go down....
But anything is possible, so it's good to budget for both but always shift more money to the safer better value.....

 

The economy is in a tight spot, so live within your means and invest wisely....

http://etfdailynews.com/2015/12/28/58-stunning-facts-about-the-u-s-economy/

 

So gold is up to 325 paper contracts for every 1 oz of physical gold...
So do physical PMs have the potential to go up??? I would say yes...
Will it go up 325 times? no.. will it go up a lot? yes....

http://etfdailynews.com/2015/12/16/...r-ounces-for-every-physical-ounce-backing-it/

 

So at year end where are we???
Dow and PMs are both down....
The DOW is at the end of a bull run and PMs are at the end of a bear market...
Don't know how long before the flip but anyone can see it coming....

I like doing side by side comparison charts to compare investments...
The Dow represents your 401K in general....
DOW is down 3.48% SLV down 14.07%, GLD down 11.64 and GDX down 24.78 year to date....
But the SLV price doesn't represent physical PMs prices, that have ups and downs but mostly flat for the last 10 months....

 

Over 10 years, gold is winning still up 96.7% after a hard 3yr "bear market" so an average of 9.6%, after a strong bull run Dow is up 62.6% and average of 6.2%.....
when the market goes into a bear run it will go back to 0 like silver is now....
So the only buy and hold that is working right now is gold.....
But Physical PMs are real money, so there are factors that will project PMs higher than any digital investment you can make and you have the security of single, 100% ownership and no 3rd party risk....
Dollar based investment are at risk to money printing inflation/devaluation and PMs have an invers relationship...
So the more money they print the higher the PMs price will go so worst case you maintain purchasing power.... But so far purchasing power is going up with Physical PMs....
But as more people move into PMs the shortages will start to appear and PMs will rocket much higher as people seek to protect their wealth or ride the wave....
So I really like this buy in point and could be giving up some opportunity cost to buy in but better early than late and I want to protect some of my money now..
So only buy with your long term money, so you can hold out, because in the end PMs will crush any digital investment available right now...

 

As the fed keeps printing unlimited money people and nations will be moving away from the dollar...
The dollar will loose value and most likely be reevaluated much lower...
So 57 countries have decided to move away from the dollar and more will follow...
It's not the end of the world just the end of the petrol dollar...
So you can expect loosing purchasing power with all dollar based assets...
That is why you need to diversify some of your money into safer assets...

 

Tons of drama today......

Iran and Saudi Arabia getting into it...

Markets crashing.....

Oregon stand off with the GOV.....

isis threating Saudi Arabia.....

Crazy times........... As the petrol dollar dies.....

 

The Federal Reserve’s policy rate fell below its target range on the last day of 2015, data released Monday by the central bank show, a development that many traders anticipated but nonetheless renewed concerns about market forces threatening the Fed’s ability to control short-term interest rates.

The daily benchmark, called the effective federal-funds rate, dipped to 0.20% on Dec. 31, below the Fed’s newly set 0.25%-0.5% range for interest rates on overnight loans between banks.

While the fed-funds rate popped back into range one trading session later—settling around 0.35% to 0.37% as of early trading on Monday according to broker ICAP PLC—the drop Thursday was widely watched amid scrutiny of new tools the Fed has designed to keep rates lifted.

It came 2½ weeks after the Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade and was the first sign of swings in the policy rate that Fed watchers had predicted for the year-end.

“There could be some confidence issues in the market if you saw the fed-funds effective rate trade persistently below the Fed’s target range,” said Garret Sloan, fixed-income market strategist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC.

Analysts said there were two primary drivers behind the policy rate settling below the Fed’s target range: light trading volume on Dec. 31 that skewed the rate and behavioral shifts by foreign banks that are usually the dominant borrowers in the fed-funds market.

New banking regulations require foreign banks to calculate snapshots of their balance sheets at the end of every month, versus daily averages for U.S. banks. Many foreign banks step back from the fed-funds market at month-end to make it look like they are borrowing less. That gives lenders fewer places to park their cash on those dates, causing the fed-funds rate to fall.

Some analysts said the decline was expected but was still noteworthy as the Fed seeks toshow it can control rates after keeping them near zero for seven years.

“Everyone expected that foreign banks would back away from the fed-funds market at month-end, as they always do, but this was the first test of the Fed’s controls in the aftermath of the zero interest-rate policy,” Mr. Sloan said.

A Fed spokesman declined to comment on the fed-funds rate move at year-end. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Sunday at an economics conference that the central bank’s new tools had been successful in raising the policy rate, but added, “Of course, issues may yet arise during normalization that could call for adjustments to our tools, and we stand ready to do that.”

Before Dec. 31, Lou Crandall, economist at ICAP, initially forecast that the fed-funds rate would fall to 0.15%. The outcome of 0.20%, he said, wasn’t particularly surprising in light of market dynamics at year-end.

“The year-end gyrations in the fed-funds market are just a technical accounting issue,” he said. The international financing reporting standards affecting foreign banks aren’t ideal, he added, but “it doesn’t pose any immediate problems for monetary policy.”

The Fed itself has acknowledged that the fed-funds rate could be volatile at year-end, after falling into unusual patterns around month-end dates in 2015. William Dudley,president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice chairman of the Fed’s rate-setting panel, said last September he wouldn’t be concerned if money-market rates proved sloppy for a day or so at year-end.

The morning the Fed implemented its interest-rate rise, the policy rate rose to 0.35% intraday, and the fed-funds effective rate had settled between 0.35% and 0.37% for most of the remainder of December.

“Quarter-end balance sheet pressures create a unique set of conditions that conspired to push this rate lower” on the last day of the year, said Joseph Abate, money-markets analyst at Barclays PLC.

With the interest-rate increase in the rearview mirror, and the target range set a quarter of a percentage point higher, there could be more month-end movement in the fed-funds rate, some said.

“With rates now farther away from the zero bound, there is more room to fall,” saidZoltan Pozsar, in global strategy and economics at Credit Suisse Group AG.

 

Fed’s Policy Rate Fell Below New Target Range on Final Day of 2015
The fed-funds rate popped back into the Fed’s 0.25% to 0.5% target on Monday