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What happened to global warming?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by HBMurphy, Oct 10, 2009.

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  1. Oct 10, 2009 at 9:38 AM
    #1
    HBMurphy

    HBMurphy [OP] Ban Pending

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    By Paul Hudson
    Climate correspondent, BBC News


    [​IMG]

    Average temperatures have not increased for over a decade


    This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998.

    But it is true. For the last 11 years we have not observed any increase in global temperatures.

    And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise.

    So what on Earth is going on?

    Climate change sceptics, who passionately and consistently argue that man's influence on our climate is overstated, say they saw it coming.

    They argue that there are natural cycles, over which we have no control, that dictate how warm the planet is. But what is the evidence for this?
    During the last few decades of the 20th Century, our planet did warm quickly.

    Recent research has ruled out solar influences on temperature increases
    Sceptics argue that the warming we observed was down to the energy from the Sun increasing. After all 98% of the Earth's warmth comes from the Sun.
    But research conducted two years ago, and published by the Royal Society, seemed to rule out solar influences.

    The scientists' main approach was simple: to look at solar output and cosmic ray intensity over the last 30-40 years, and compare those trends with the graph for global average surface temperature.

    And the results were clear. "Warming in the last 20 to 40 years can't have been caused by solar activity," said Dr Piers Forster from Leeds University, a leading contributor to this year's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    But one solar scientist Piers Corbyn from Weatheraction, a company specialising in long range weather forecasting, disagrees.

    He claims that solar charged particles impact us far more than is currently accepted, so much so he says that they are almost entirely responsible for what happens to global temperatures.

    He is so excited by what he has discovered that he plans to tell the international scientific community at a conference in London at the end of the month.

    If proved correct, this could revolutionise the whole subject.
    Ocean cycles

    What is really interesting at the moment is what is happening to our oceans. They are the Earth's great heat stores.

    [​IMG]
    In the last few years [the Pacific Ocean] has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down

    According to research conducted by Professor Don Easterbrook from Western Washington University last November, the oceans and global temperatures are correlated.

    The oceans, he says, have a cycle in which they warm and cool cyclically. The most important one is the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

    For much of the 1980s and 1990s, it was in a positive cycle, that means warmer than average. And observations have revealed that global temperatures were warm too.

    But in the last few years it has been losing its warmth and has recently started to cool down.

    These cycles in the past have lasted for nearly 30 years.
    So could global temperatures follow? The global cooling from 1945 to 1977 coincided with one of these cold Pacific cycles.

    Professor Easterbrook says: "The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling."
    So what does it all mean? Climate change sceptics argue that this is evidence that they have been right all along.

    They say there are so many other natural causes for warming and cooling, that even if man is warming the planet, it is a small part compared with nature.

    But those scientists who are equally passionate about man's influence on global warming argue that their science is solid.

    The UK Met Office's Hadley Centre, responsible for future climate predictions, says it incorporates solar variation and ocean cycles into its climate models, and that they are nothing new.
    In fact, the centre says they are just two of the whole host of known factors that influence global temperatures - all of which are accounted for by its models.

    In addition, say Met Office scientists, temperatures have never increased in a straight line, and there will always be periods of slower warming, or even temporary cooling.

    What is crucial, they say, is the long-term trend in global temperatures. And that, according to the Met office data, is clearly up.

    To confuse the issue even further, last month Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.

    The UK Met Office says that warming is set to resume

    Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world's top climate modellers.
    But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.

    So what can we expect in the next few years?

    Both sides have very different forecasts. The Met Office says that warming is set to resume quickly and strongly.

    It predicts that from 2010 to 2015 at least half the years will be hotter than the current hottest year on record (1998).

    Sceptics disagree. They insist it is unlikely that temperatures will reach the dizzy heights of 1998 until 2030 at the earliest. It is possible, they say, that because of ocean and solar cycles a period of global cooling is more likely.
    One thing is for sure. It seems the debate about what is causing global warming is far from over. Indeed some would say it is hotting up.

    Edit: I can remember in the 70s everyone was saying that we were on the dawn of a new Ice Age... IMO Anything to get published. There is a HUGE difference between intelligence and intellect. Learn how to detect the difference!

    The first Earth Day was celebrated on April 22, 1970, amidst hysteria about the dangers of a new ice age. The media had been spreading warnings of a cooling period since the 1950s, but those alarms grew louder in the 1970s... In 1975, cooling went from “one of the most important problems” to a first-place tie for “death and misery.” The claims of global catastrophe were remarkably similar to what the media deliver now about global warming (source: Fire and Ice).
     
  2. Oct 10, 2009 at 9:47 AM
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    TacomaDan

    TacomaDan Don't go off ninjin

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    wow awesome find!!!!! i love articles like that!!
     
  3. Oct 10, 2009 at 9:51 AM
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    07trd4x4

    07trd4x4 Well-Known Member

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    The is cool. Pardon the pun!! Nice find!!!! Wonder if al gore and all those lib's in my great republic of kalifornia got the message
     
  4. Oct 10, 2009 at 9:54 AM
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    65tacodude

    65tacodude Well-Known Member

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    Thats what they dont get, ITS CALLED NATURE. Shit like this happens. Granted we may have played a small part, but momma earth has a way of douching herself
     
  5. Oct 10, 2009 at 9:56 AM
    #5
    HBMurphy

    HBMurphy [OP] Ban Pending

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    If you have power, sometimes you think you can control everything. One of the sayings that comes to mind... "When you start believing your own bullshit - That's when you're in trouble!"
     
  6. Oct 10, 2009 at 9:56 AM
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    Packman73

    Packman73 ^^^^ 3%er ^^^^

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    As the founder of the Weather Channel, John Coleman says, it's the greatest scam in history (paraphrasing).
     
  7. Oct 10, 2009 at 9:59 AM
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    HBMurphy

    HBMurphy [OP] Ban Pending

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    And isn't that ironic! I call that channel "The Global Warming Channel"! :) They certainly are trying to cash in on it!
     
  8. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:08 AM
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    TacomaDan

    TacomaDan Don't go off ninjin

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    wow thats just ridiculous. Al gore even had a chart in his movie or documentary that showed a trend in global warming. its gonna happen.
     
  9. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:12 AM
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    Packman73

    Packman73 ^^^^ 3%er ^^^^

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    He had sold his interest off before that shit started.
     
  10. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:13 AM
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    HBMurphy

    HBMurphy [OP] Ban Pending

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    We all have opinions... Charts and graphs are cool. ;) We'll have dinner in 2025. If my beach home is under water, I'll buy. If I get to do more skiing you buy okay? :)
     
  11. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:17 AM
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    TacomaDan

    TacomaDan Don't go off ninjin

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    Im not putting money on anything and predicting is like trying to say what the weather is going to be like next week. not accurate at all. but i guess i could buy if you go skiing more. haha
     
  12. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:20 AM
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    HBMurphy

    HBMurphy [OP] Ban Pending

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    The future will tell. My only real beef is how it has become a religion for so many people. If this much effort was placed on helping people where could we go? - Just saying! Now where are those skis! :)
     
  13. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:21 AM
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    Brunes

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    Because every one always uses charts and statistics to tell the truth...
     
  14. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:23 AM
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    HBMurphy

    HBMurphy [OP] Ban Pending

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    Charts can skew the truth? I thought people like accountants and auditors always come up with the same conclusions! How about the saying "Numbers don't lie!" :)
     
  15. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:28 AM
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    TacomaDan

    TacomaDan Don't go off ninjin

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    Yeah. if we know its going to happen we need to get that through our thick skulls and move on to trying to find a cure for cancer or helping our economy which is now in like $50 trillion worth of debt?!?!?!
     
  16. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:38 AM
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    Brunes

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    I didn't say charts skew the truth...I said people skew the truth and can use charts to back up what they say.

    It's amazing what happens when you change the scale of a chart. Take the stock market. Scale it for a week or two of market activity and things looks great. Take a year or 2...and all of the sudden our economy is shit. (Oversimplified...but it makes the point quite well)

    And they don't always come to the same conclusions- That's why insurance premiums, stock markets returns, and bonuses all differ company to company...
     
  17. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:44 AM
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    Packman73

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    The green jobs czar was a communist. Communists are morphing into the green movement to push their agenda from a different angle.
     
  18. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:45 AM
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    HBMurphy

    HBMurphy [OP] Ban Pending

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    I was just kidding. You are exactly right. How 'bout logarithmic charts! They all have their purpose but must be taken at face value and all put together to see a clear picture.
     
  19. Oct 10, 2009 at 10:48 AM
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    07trd4x4

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    Where does all the "Carbon Money" go to!?!? Al Gores pocket to pay for his G-4
     
  20. Oct 10, 2009 at 11:13 AM
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    Brunes

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    Ehh-Eff my life...Totally missed the sarcasm. I'm still working on waking up.

    ::goes back to bed::
     
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